發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-27 15:14

  本文選題：次貸危機(jī) + 貨幣供給量�。� 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：2007年到2011年間,中國國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)先后經(jīng)歷了由美國次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的緊縮性危機(jī),到經(jīng)濟(jì)短暫觸底后的迅速反彈,再到經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇后高企的通貨膨脹壓力。短時(shí)間內(nèi)加劇的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)給國內(nèi)貨幣政策的選擇與實(shí)施帶來了前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。在沒有形成完全利率市場化的情況下,貨幣供給量的調(diào)整自然成為了我國主要的貨幣政策調(diào)控手段。 貨幣政策的有效性是進(jìn)行貨幣政策調(diào)控的前提與基礎(chǔ),只有在貨幣政策是有效的情況下,利用貨幣政策工具對(duì)貨幣政策目標(biāo)實(shí)施影響,才能最終影響實(shí)際產(chǎn)出等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,進(jìn)而達(dá)到對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行調(diào)控的目的。 貨幣政策有效性問題的研究涉及兩個(gè)主要理論：貨幣中性與非中性理論和貨幣內(nèi)生性與外生性理論。只有在貨幣是非中性的情況下,貨幣政策才會(huì)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)變量產(chǎn)生影響,進(jìn)而影響實(shí)際產(chǎn)出的變化,這才進(jìn)一步涉及政策效果問題。否則,貨幣政策是無效的,不影響實(shí)際產(chǎn)出。而貨幣是內(nèi)生還是外生的,直接影響貨幣政策實(shí)施及作用方式,當(dāng)貨幣存在內(nèi)生性時(shí),將給貨幣政策的制定與實(shí)施帶來一定難度。 為研究上述時(shí)期內(nèi),中國貨幣政策及作用效果,本文選取了貨幣供給量、產(chǎn)出和物價(jià)水平等主要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用變量自回歸(VAR)模型和相關(guān)計(jì)量分析模型及方法,對(duì)貨幣供給量與產(chǎn)出、物價(jià)水平間的相互關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)本輪貨幣政策的實(shí)際有效性進(jìn)行了研究與判斷,并得出了相關(guān)結(jié)論,即這一時(shí)期內(nèi),中國國內(nèi)貨幣是非中性的,并且有一定的內(nèi)生性特征,貨幣政策總體是有效的,但實(shí)際作用效果有限,中間傳遞過程中存在阻礙和明顯的時(shí)滯性。這一結(jié)論對(duì)進(jìn)一步研究緊縮性危機(jī)背景下,中國貨幣政策有效性問題具有一定的意義。
[Abstract]:Between 2007 and 2011, China's domestic economy experienced a tightening crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, a rapid rebound after a brief bottoming out, and high inflationary pressures after an economic recovery. The aggravation of economic fluctuation in a short period of time brings unprecedented challenges to the choice and implementation of domestic monetary policy. In the absence of a complete marketization of interest rates, the adjustment of money supply has naturally become the main means of monetary policy regulation in China. The effectiveness of monetary policy is the premise and foundation of monetary policy regulation and control. Only when monetary policy is effective, can macroeconomic variables such as actual output be influenced by monetary policy tools. To achieve the goal of macroeconomic regulation and control. The study on the validity of monetary policy involves two main theories: the theory of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality and the theory of monetary endogenicity and externality. Only when the currency is not neutral, the monetary policy will have an impact on the real economic variables, and then affect the change of the actual output, which further involves the effect of the policy. Otherwise, monetary policy is ineffective and does not affect actual output. When money is endogenous or exogenous, it will directly affect the implementation of monetary policy and its mode of action. When money exists endogenously, it will bring some difficulties to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy. In order to study the monetary policy and its effect in the period mentioned above, this paper selects the main macroeconomic data, such as the quantity of money supply, output and price level, and applies the variable autoregressive (VAR) model and the relevant econometric analysis model and method. The relationship between money supply, output and price level is analyzed empirically. On this basis, the actual effectiveness of this round of monetary policy is studied and judged, and the relevant conclusions are drawn, that is, the domestic currency in China is non-neutral in this period and has some endogenous characteristics. Monetary policy is effective on the whole, but the effect of monetary policy is limited, and there is hindrance and obvious delay in the process of intermediate transmission. This conclusion is of significance to further study the effectiveness of China's monetary policy in the context of the contractionary crisis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F224

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