發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-23 09:11

  本文選題：國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng) + 跨境投機(jī)資本　； 參考：《湘潭大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和金融創(chuàng)新的不斷深入，國(guó)際短期資本的流動(dòng)日益頻繁，這將對(duì)資本輸入國(guó)和資本輸出國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重大影響。一般來說，國(guó)際短期資本的流動(dòng)一方面能滿足資本輸入國(guó)對(duì)資本的需求，同時(shí)還能為資本輸出國(guó)提供更多的投資渠道，另一方面也會(huì)在一定程度上削弱資本輸入國(guó)和資本輸出國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的有效性，加劇房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和證券市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)，導(dǎo)致整個(gè)金融體系的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大。新形勢(shì)下國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)具有機(jī)構(gòu)化、投機(jī)化、衍生化等特點(diǎn)，因此，國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)在給各國(guó)帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的機(jī)遇的同時(shí)，也對(duì)各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制提出了更高的要求。貨幣當(dāng)局必須不斷提高對(duì)國(guó)際短期資本的管理水平，最大程度的利用國(guó)際短期資本來發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)。 中國(guó)作為經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，在新的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下，其國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模、渠道、結(jié)構(gòu)等各方面都發(fā)生了巨大的變化，對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定性、金融市場(chǎng)和銀行體系穩(wěn)定性造成了不同程度的影響。國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定性的影響主要表現(xiàn)在對(duì)我國(guó)通貨膨脹、國(guó)際收支、以及國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄和投資水平的影響上；其對(duì)我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的影響主要表現(xiàn)在對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣市場(chǎng)、證券市場(chǎng)和外匯市場(chǎng)的影響上；其對(duì)我國(guó)銀行體系穩(wěn)定性的影響主要表現(xiàn)在對(duì)我國(guó)銀行體系信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平的影響上。 測(cè)算一國(guó)國(guó)際短期資本規(guī)模的方法有直接法、間接法、混合法，根據(jù)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際情況，須結(jié)合直接法和修正后的間接法對(duì)中國(guó)國(guó)際短期資本的規(guī)模進(jìn)行測(cè)算。從測(cè)算結(jié)果可以看出，中國(guó)國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模在總體上表現(xiàn)出上升趨勢(shì)，但在1997年、2006年、2008年的波動(dòng)幅度較大。此外，中國(guó)國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)凈額和國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）之間的協(xié)整關(guān)系分析結(jié)果表明，國(guó)際短期資本的流動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有促進(jìn)作用。為了充分利用國(guó)際短期資本給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來的機(jī)遇，最大程度的防范國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，，中國(guó)可從借鑒國(guó)外國(guó)際短期資本管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)、加強(qiáng)自身制度建設(shè)、參與國(guó)際監(jiān)管體系三個(gè)方面加強(qiáng)對(duì)國(guó)際短期資本的管理。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization and financial innovation, the flow of international short-term capital is becoming more and more frequent, which will have a great impact on the economic development of capital importing countries and capital exporting countries. Generally speaking, international short-term capital flows can, on the one hand, meet the capital needs of the capital-importing countries and at the same time provide more investment channels for capital-exporting countries. On the other hand, it will weaken the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies of capital importing countries and capital exporting countries to some extent, aggravate the volatility of real estate market and securities market, and increase the risk of the whole financial system. Under the new situation, the international short-term capital flow has the characteristics of institutionalization, speculation, derivation, etc. Therefore, the international short-term capital flow not only brings the economic development opportunity to the countries, but also puts forward higher requirements to the economic system of each country. Monetary authorities must constantly improve the management of international short-term capital and maximize the use of international short-term capital to develop the economy. As a developing country with sustained economic growth, under the new macroeconomic situation, China has undergone tremendous changes in the scale, channels and structure of its international short-term capital flows. The stability of financial markets and banking systems has been affected to varying degrees. The impact of short-term international capital flow on China's macroeconomic stability is mainly reflected in the impact on China's inflation, balance of payments, and the level of domestic savings and investment; Its influence on our country's financial market is mainly manifested in the influence on our country's money market, securities market and foreign exchange market, and its influence on the stability of our banking system is mainly manifested in the credit risk of our country's banking system. Market risk and liquidity risk level on the impact. The methods of calculating a country's international short-term capital scale include direct method, indirect method and mixed method. According to the actual situation of China's economy, the scale of China's international short-term capital should be measured by combining direct method and modified indirect method. It can be seen from the results that the scale of China's international short-term capital flows shows an upward trend on the whole, but in 1997, 2006 and 2008, the volatility is quite large. In addition, the cointegration analysis between China's net international short-term capital flows and GDP shows that the international short-term capital flows can promote China's economy. In order to make full use of the opportunities brought by international short-term capital to China's economic development and to prevent the risk of international short-term capital flow to the maximum extent, China can learn from the experience of international short-term capital management abroad and strengthen its own system construction. Participate in the international regulatory system in three aspects to strengthen the management of international short-term capital.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F831.7;F124

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