本文選題：國際金融危機 + 統(tǒng)計測度��； 參考：《湖南大學》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：2007年8月“次貸危機”開始席卷美國、歐盟和日本等世界主要金融市場，進而致使全球主要金融市場出現(xiàn)流動性危機，經(jīng)過迅速地擴散和深化逐漸演變?yōu)樽?929年大蕭條以來全球最嚴重的一次國際金融危機。國際金融危機影響尚未消退，2009年12月希臘債務危機又開始顯現(xiàn)。時至2010年，除了希臘之外歐洲的幾個“明星經(jīng)濟體”也被卷入這場危機之中，歐元區(qū)內(nèi)的這幾個經(jīng)濟體面臨著高漲的政府債務危機，迫切需要得到外部的救助。“歐洲主權(quán)債務危機”基本上屬于“次貸危機”影響的延續(xù)。與以往有所不同，此次國際金融危機呈現(xiàn)出了一些新的特征，其影響范圍之廣、影響時間之長、影響程度之深、各個經(jīng)濟體政府干預動作之頻繁都是之前的金融危機所未能比擬的。中國作為第二大經(jīng)濟體，目前正處于經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型時期，經(jīng)濟增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整優(yōu)化則是近些年來中國經(jīng)濟改革發(fā)展的首要目標。國際金融危機的爆發(fā)和蔓延不僅給全球經(jīng)濟帶來沖擊，也給中國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生了較大的負面沖擊與影響，不僅短期內(nèi)顯著影響GDP等一些宏觀經(jīng)濟指標，更重要的是從中長期影響經(jīng)濟增長路徑和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，而且這種影響將是隱性的、長期的，且具有時滯性特征。 本文首先系統(tǒng)梳理了金融危機傳導經(jīng)典理論，認為金融危機對經(jīng)濟的影響是一個漸進、動態(tài)的過程，而非一個靜止的狀態(tài)，而且這種影響是長期的。通過國際金融危機呈現(xiàn)出的特征和影響的表現(xiàn)，尤其是對實體經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生了較大影響，從經(jīng)濟增長持續(xù)性理論和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演變理論分析入手，認為危機對經(jīng)濟的影響效應通過資本、勞動、技術(shù)三個投入要素作用于經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部，影響著經(jīng)濟增長的驅(qū)動力，進而影響著經(jīng)濟增長模式的演變，同時也影響著系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，尤其是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演變。構(gòu)建了基于經(jīng)濟增長驅(qū)動力、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩個視角與危機影響彈性、影響路徑兩個維度相結(jié)合的國際金融危機影響效應測度理論分析框架。將研究思路設定為著力于中長期發(fā)展態(tài)勢的考察，測度國際金融危機對經(jīng)濟增長路徑的彈性影響效應、影響路徑，以及對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的彈性影響效應、影響路徑，在測度結(jié)果的基礎上對國際金融危機期間的刺激政策進行簡要評價，，并提出后續(xù)政策干預的逐步退出措施建議，以及促進經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)增長的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策措施，以提升經(jīng)濟自身抵御國際金融危機沖擊的能力。 其次，依據(jù)所構(gòu)建的理論分析框架，從經(jīng)濟增長內(nèi)部驅(qū)動力即生產(chǎn)要素出發(fā)，利用假定規(guī)模報酬不變的道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，選用狀態(tài)空間統(tǒng)計模型，實證分析了國際金融危機通過資本、技術(shù)和勞動等生產(chǎn)要素對經(jīng)濟增長的時變彈性影響效應。結(jié)果表明，國際金融危機導致我國資本產(chǎn)出彈性系數(shù)呈現(xiàn)加速下降趨勢，資本驅(qū)動型經(jīng)濟增長已難以實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展，同時全要素生產(chǎn)率呈現(xiàn)加速下降趨勢，全要素生產(chǎn)率的變動對經(jīng)濟增長貢獻率呈現(xiàn)負效應。 第三，本部分從國際金融危機對經(jīng)濟總量路徑的影響視角，不但從理論上考察分析經(jīng)濟增長各生產(chǎn)要素的時滯變化，而且選用結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸模型，實證分析各個生產(chǎn)要素在受到國際金融危機影響下的響應時間以及響應強度的變化。研究表明，技術(shù)進步和人均資本對經(jīng)濟增長的作用影響時滯發(fā)生了較為明顯的變化，其中經(jīng)濟增長對技術(shù)進步的響應時間達到縮短了一個季度，對人均資本的最大響應在時間上與國際金融危機前比較提前2個季度。技術(shù)進步對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率相比國際金融危機前獲得較大提升，而人均資本對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率相較國際金融危機前卻呈現(xiàn)出較大幅度的下降。 第四，基于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論視角，全面考慮危機與政策疊加效應對三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長路徑的影響，運用干預分析模型對三大產(chǎn)業(yè)運行的偏離程度和影響進行實證分析，并對刺激干預政策進行簡要評價。國際金融危機主要對第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生了重要影響，經(jīng)濟刺激政策在短期內(nèi)起到了較好的作用，對產(chǎn)業(yè)的拉動效應顯著。 第五，從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)視角進一步分析國際金融危機對三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的彈性影響效應，模擬刻畫三大產(chǎn)業(yè)對GDP彈性的中長期變動軌跡，運用基于嶺回歸的滾動回歸模型進行實證分析，結(jié)果表明，國際金融危機提高了第一產(chǎn)業(yè)對GDP的彈性系數(shù)，降低了第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)對GDP的彈性系數(shù)，表明單純地加大對第二產(chǎn)業(yè)資本投入已然不能提升經(jīng)濟增長的質(zhì)量，從而為探討經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型、實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供經(jīng)驗性證明。 最后，以前面對國際金融危機影響效應的理論分析和對中國經(jīng)濟影響的實證測度結(jié)論為基礎，考慮到隨著國際金融危機影響效應的逐步消減，提出干預政策措施逐步退出的機制，此外，基于經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)性發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整優(yōu)化的宏觀目標，提出中長期里中國宏觀經(jīng)濟政策調(diào)控的措施和建議。
[Abstract]:In August 2007, the "subprime crisis" began to sweep the major financial markets of the United States, the EU and Japan, and then led to the liquidity crisis in the world's major financial markets. After the rapid spread and deepening, the world's most serious international financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1929. The impact of the international financial crisis has not been subsided. In December 2009, the Greek debt crisis began to emerge again. In 2010, in 2010, several "star economies" in Europe, except Greece, were also involved in the crisis. These economies in the euro area were faced with a high government debt crisis and urgently needed external assistance. "The European sovereign debt crisis" is basically "the" "European sovereign debt crisis". The impact of the subprime crisis is the continuation of the impact. Different from the past, the international financial crisis has shown some new features, its scope of impact, the length of the impact of time, the depth of impact, the frequency of government intervention in the various economies is not comparable to the previous financial crisis. As the second largest economy, it is now in the right place. In the period of economic transformation, the transformation of the mode of economic growth and the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure are the primary objectives of the economic reform and development in China in recent years. The outbreak and spread of the international financial crisis not only brought the impact of the global economy, but also had a great negative impact on the Chinese economy, which not only had a significant impact on the GDP in the short term, but also had a significant impact on the economy in the short term. Some macroeconomic indicators, more importantly, affect the economic growth path and the adjustment of the industrial structure in the middle and long term, and this effect will be recessive, long-term and time-delay characteristics.
This paper first systematically combs the classical theory of the financial crisis transmission, and thinks that the impact of the financial crisis on the economy is a gradual, dynamic process, not a static state, and this effect is long-term. The characteristics and effects of the international financial crisis, especially the substantial impact on the real economy, are greatly influenced by the financial crisis. On the basis of the theory of sustained economic growth and the theoretical analysis of industrial structure evolution, it is believed that the effect of crisis on economy is influenced by three input elements of capital, labor and technology in the economic system, affecting the driving force of economic growth, and affecting the evolution of the economic growth pattern, and also affecting the adjustment of the internal economic structure of the system. The theoretical analysis framework based on the economic growth driving force, the two perspectives of the industrial structure and the resilience of the crisis and the impact of the two dimensions of the path on the impact effect of the international financial crisis is constructed. The research ideas are set to focus on the development of the middle and long term development and measure the international financial crisis. The elastic effects of the economic growth path, the impact of the path, the elastic effect on the industrial structure, the impact of the path, the brief evaluation of the stimulus policies during the international financial crisis on the basis of the measurement results, and the gradual exit measures of the follow-up policy intervention, as well as the macro economic growth of the economy, and the macro economic growth of the economy. Economic policies and measures to enhance the ability of the economy to resist the impact of the international financial crisis.
Secondly, based on the theoretical analysis framework constructed, starting from the internal driving force of economic growth is the factor of production, using the Douglas production function which assumes the constant return of scale, the state space statistical model is selected to analyze the impact of the international financial crisis on the time variable elasticity of economic growth through the factors of capital, technology and labor. The results show that the international financial crisis has led to the accelerating decline trend of China's capital output elasticity coefficient, and the capital driven economic growth has been difficult to achieve sustainable economic development, while the total factor productivity presents an accelerated decline trend, and the total factor productivity change has a negative effect on the contribution rate of economic growth.
Third, from the perspective of the impact of the international financial crisis on the path of economic aggregate, this part not only theoretically investigates and analyzes the time-delay changes of the production factors of economic growth, but also selects the structure vector autoregressive model to analyze the response time and the change of the response intensity of each factor of production under the impact of the international financial crisis. The study shows that the effect of technological progress and per capita capital on economic growth has a significant change in time lag, in which the response time of economic growth to technological progress has been shortened by a quarter, and the maximum response to per capita capital is 2 quarters ahead of the international financial crisis. The contribution rate has been greatly improved compared with the international financial crisis, while the contribution rate of per capita capital to economic growth has been significantly lower than before the international financial crisis.
Fourth, based on the perspective of industrial structure theory, the effect of crisis and policy superposition effect on the growth path of the three industries is comprehensively considered, and the intervention analysis model is used to make an empirical analysis on the deviation and influence of the operation of the three industries, and a brief evaluation of the stimulus intervention policy is made. The international financial crisis is mainly produced in the second, third industry. As a result, the economic stimulus policy has played a better role in the short term and has a significant pulling effect on the industry.
Fifth, from the perspective of industrial structure, we further analyze the impact of the international financial crisis on the elasticity of the three industries, simulate and depict the medium and long term changes of the GDP elasticity of the three major industries, and use the rolling regression model based on ridge regression to carry out an empirical analysis. The results show that the international financial crisis has improved the elasticity coefficient of the first industry to the GDP. The elasticity coefficient of the second, third industry to the GDP shows that only increasing the capital input to the second industry can not improve the quality of economic growth, thus providing empirical proof for the discussion of the transformation of the economic industrial structure and the sustainable development of the economy.
Finally, on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the impact effect of the international financial crisis and the conclusion of the empirical measurement of the impact of China's economy, the mechanism for the gradual withdrawal of intervention policies and measures is put forward in consideration of the gradual reduction of the effects of the international financial crisis, in addition, the macro optimization based on the economic sustainability and the adjustment of the economic structure In the medium and long term, measures and suggestions for macroeconomic regulation and control in China are put forward.

【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F124;F831.59

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