本文選題：經(jīng)常賬戶赤字 + 資本流入突然中斷��； 參考：《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2010年09期

【摘要】：本文選擇93個(gè)國(guó)家在1977～2007年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,分析了全球性經(jīng)常賬戶失衡的現(xiàn)狀。在深入剖析經(jīng)常賬戶高赤字的具體融資途徑及其經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的基礎(chǔ)上,本文利用Probit模型對(duì)資本流入突然中斷對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶赤字調(diào)節(jié)的影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)資本流入突然中斷能夠顯著影響經(jīng)常賬戶赤字的調(diào)節(jié),并對(duì)其經(jīng)濟(jì)意義進(jìn)行闡釋。最后就此次金融危機(jī)后全球經(jīng)常賬戶的狀態(tài)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),指出此次金融危機(jī)的發(fā)生不會(huì)帶來全球經(jīng)常賬戶失衡的改善。
[Abstract]:This paper selects 93 countries' data from 1977 to 2007 as a sample to analyze the current account imbalance in the world.On the basis of deeply analyzing the specific financing ways of high current account deficit and its economic impact, this paper uses Probit model to empirically test the effect of sudden interruption of capital inflow on the adjustment of current account deficit.It is found that the sudden interruption of capital inflow can significantly affect the adjustment of the current account deficit and explain its economic significance.Finally, he predicted the state of the global current account after the financial crisis, pointing out that the crisis would not lead to an improvement in global current account imbalances.
【作者單位】： 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)國(guó)際工商管理學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F831.6

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