本文選題：超額貨幣供給 + 中國(guó)之謎　； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：1978年以來，伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)，我國(guó)M2、M1平均年增速高達(dá)20%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率，與此同時(shí)我國(guó)金融發(fā)展指標(biāo)M2/GDP一直呈現(xiàn)上升的趨勢(shì)，2010年這一比例達(dá)到1.93，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了世界上絕大多數(shù)國(guó)家，在此期間我國(guó)對(duì)應(yīng)的物價(jià)水平仍然處在可控范圍內(nèi)。McKinnon（1993）研究美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)貨幣、產(chǎn)出與物價(jià)之間關(guān)系與傳統(tǒng)貨幣數(shù)量論相違背的現(xiàn)象時(shí)，提出了“迷失的貨幣”，并將我國(guó)這種超額貨幣供給與低物價(jià)水平并存的現(xiàn)象稱為“中國(guó)之謎”。學(xué)術(shù)界針對(duì)此疑問展開了大量的研究，提出了貨幣化、被迫儲(chǔ)蓄、貨幣滯存等一系列解釋假說。關(guān)于我國(guó)超額貨幣供給是否存在？如何度量？經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也爭(zhēng)論不一。本文基于此來研究我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌時(shí)期長(zhǎng)期存在的超額貨幣供給現(xiàn)象。 本文基于傳統(tǒng)交易方程式的修正，放松了貨幣流通速度不變的假定，同時(shí)兼顧實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)與虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)貨幣流通速度的影響，對(duì)我國(guó)三個(gè)貨幣層次的超額貨幣供給進(jìn)行測(cè)量，實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明我國(guó)確實(shí)存在超額貨幣供給，且相對(duì)于較多文獻(xiàn)研究，我國(guó)超額貨幣供給程度高估了。但同時(shí)我國(guó)超額貨幣供給存在階段性的結(jié)構(gòu)特征�；谳^多成因假說和本文的測(cè)算結(jié)果，充分考慮我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)在轉(zhuǎn)型與外在開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化背景，對(duì)我國(guó)超額貨幣供給成因進(jìn)行分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣化水平對(duì)第一階段我國(guó)超額貨幣供給的形成有較好的解釋力，而第二階段我國(guó)超額貨幣供給首先離不開我國(guó)近些年寬松的貨幣政策，同時(shí)與我國(guó)內(nèi)在失衡的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、國(guó)際收支持續(xù)雙順差以及人民幣匯率波動(dòng)和管理體制密不可分。一方面，居民儲(chǔ)蓄的增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)了準(zhǔn)貨幣的快速增長(zhǎng)，而準(zhǔn)貨幣對(duì)貨幣M2的超額增長(zhǎng)起到重要作用，與此同時(shí)，政府投資也促使貨幣的被動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)；另一方面，我國(guó)長(zhǎng)期國(guó)際收支雙順差與強(qiáng)制結(jié)售匯制促使大量外匯集中于貨幣當(dāng)局，人民幣匯率的波動(dòng)與預(yù)期進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)了基礎(chǔ)貨幣的被動(dòng)發(fā)行。這內(nèi)外兩方面的原因最終導(dǎo)致我國(guó)超額貨幣供給存在且不可忽視。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)角度看，要根本上減小我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中超額貨幣供給的影響，，也得調(diào)整貨幣政策，改革外匯管理制度，并從根本上改善微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄以及投資行為。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, with the rapid economic growth, the average annual growth rate of M2CM1 in China has been as high as 20%, far exceeding the economic growth rate.At the same time, China's financial development index (M2/GDP) has been on the rise, reaching 1.93 in 2010, far exceeding the vast majority of countries in the world.During this period, the corresponding price level in China is still within the scope of control. McKinnon 1993), when studying the phenomenon that the relationship between the American economy and the monetary, output and price is contrary to the traditional monetary quantity theory, the author puts forward the "lost currency".This phenomenon of excess money supply and low price level in China is called "the mystery of China".The academic circles have carried out a lot of research to solve this problem and put forward a series of explanation hypotheses such as monetization forced savings and money lag.On the existence of excess money supply in China?How to measure?Economists are also at odds.Based on this, this paper studies the phenomenon of excess money supply in the period of economic transition.Based on the modification of the traditional trading equation, this paper loosens the assumption that the velocity of money circulation is invariable, and at the same time gives consideration to the influence of the real economy and the fictitious economy on the velocity of money circulation, and measures the excess money supply at three levels of money in China.The empirical results show that there is excess money supply in China, and the degree of excess money supply is overestimated.But at the same time, the excess money supply of our country has the stage structure characteristic.Based on the hypothesis of more causes and the results of this paper, this paper analyzes the causes of excess money supply in China, taking into account the background of the internal transformation of our economy and the external open economic globalization.It is found that the level of economic monetization has a good explanation for the formation of the first stage of China's excess money supply, while the second stage of China's excess money supply is first inseparable from China's loose monetary policy in recent years.At the same time, it is closely related to the unbalanced economic structure of our country, the continuous double surplus of international balance of payments, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the management system.On the one hand, the growth of household savings promotes the rapid growth of quasi-money, which plays an important role in the excess growth of money M2. At the same time, government investment also promotes the passive growth of money; on the other hand,China's long-term balance of payments double surplus and forced foreign exchange settlement and sale system promote a large number of foreign exchange concentrated in the monetary authorities. The fluctuation and expectation of RMB exchange rate further promote the passive issuance of the basic currency.Both internal and external reasons lead to the existence of excess money supply and can not be ignored.In the long run, it is necessary to adjust monetary policy, reform foreign exchange management system, and fundamentally improve the behavior of consumption, savings and investment of microeconomic subjects in order to reduce the influence of excess money supply in China's economic operation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.2;F224

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