本文選題：貨幣政策透明度 + 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部均衡　； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：多數(shù)情況下宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部處于失衡狀態(tài)，需要貨幣政策進(jìn)行調(diào)控來達(dá)到“反通脹”和“促增長(zhǎng)”的目標(biāo)。貨幣政策透明度作為傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策工具的補(bǔ)充，通過對(duì)市場(chǎng)上的通脹預(yù)期進(jìn)行有效引導(dǎo)，提高貨幣政策有效性，可以穩(wěn)定物價(jià)水平并以此促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。本文研究的正是貨幣政策透明度對(duì)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部均衡的影響。近年來我國央行一直強(qiáng)調(diào)前瞻性的貨幣政策，意圖通過影響市場(chǎng)預(yù)期達(dá)到預(yù)定的貨幣政策效果。貨幣政策透明度作為前瞻性貨幣政策的前提條件，對(duì)正確引導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)預(yù)期至關(guān)重要，因此分析貨幣政策透明度對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部均衡的影響具有重要的研究?jī)r(jià)值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在貨幣政策透明度和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部均衡理論的研究基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)Woodford（1999）的保守中央銀行模型進(jìn)行修正，加入通貨膨脹預(yù)期這一傳導(dǎo)中介，建立了貨幣政策透明度影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部均衡的數(shù)理模型，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策透明度可以降低通脹—產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)，但不影響通脹與產(chǎn)出的平均水平。此外，本文的實(shí)證部分運(yùn)用基于11個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國家央行從1999年至2009年的數(shù)據(jù)建立的變截距雙向固定效應(yīng)面板模型檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策透明度可以降低通脹水平并提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)水平。除此之外，本文的實(shí)證部分還對(duì)最優(yōu)貨幣政策透明度假說進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。通過在實(shí)證方程中引入貨幣政策透明度指標(biāo)的二次項(xiàng)，以此來考察貨幣政策透明度的過度提高對(duì)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部均衡的影響是否存在邊際遞減的效應(yīng)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策透明度對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部均衡的影響存在邊際遞減效應(yīng)，從而驗(yàn)證了最優(yōu)貨幣政策透明度假說。在實(shí)證最后部分，本文基于同樣的樣本數(shù)據(jù)通過建立面板向量自回歸（PVAR）模型對(duì)貨幣政策透明度與通貨膨脹率之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了更為深入的研究，通過對(duì)PVAR估計(jì)結(jié)果與脈沖響應(yīng)圖的分析，結(jié)果證明11國央行的信息披露不僅可以讓市場(chǎng)對(duì)于通貨膨脹進(jìn)行調(diào)整而且調(diào)整的方向與央行意圖的方向相一致。 最后本文對(duì)我國中央銀行透明度現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要的分析，并提出一些政策建議。鑒于我國央行貨幣政策透明度一直顯著低于發(fā)達(dá)國家的平均水平，我國有必要采取措施進(jìn)一步提升透明度水平，發(fā)揮通貨膨脹預(yù)期管理機(jī)制的作用，建立一個(gè)更為透明、效率更高的政策調(diào)控框架。
[Abstract]:In most cases the internal macroeconomic imbalances require monetary policy regulation to achieve "anti-inflation" and "growth" goals.As a supplement of the traditional monetary policy tools, the transparency of monetary policy can stabilize the price level and promote economic growth by effectively guiding inflation expectations in the market and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy.This paper studies the impact of monetary policy transparency on macroeconomic internal equilibrium.In recent years, China's central bank has been emphasizing forward-looking monetary policy, with the intention of achieving a predetermined monetary policy effect by influencing market expectations.As a precondition of forward-looking monetary policy, transparency of monetary policy is very important to guide market expectations correctly. Therefore, it is of great value and practical significance to analyze the influence of transparency of monetary policy on the internal equilibrium of macro-economy.Based on the study of the transparency of monetary policy and the theory of internal equilibrium of macro-economy, this paper modifies Woodford's conservative central bank model and adds inflation expectation as a transmission medium.The mathematical model of monetary policy transparency affecting the internal equilibrium of macro-economy is established. The results show that monetary policy transparency can reduce the fluctuation of inflation and output, but it does not affect the average level of inflation and output.In addition, the empirical part of this paper uses the variable intercept bidirectional fixed effect panel model based on the data of 11 developed countries' central banks from 1999 to 2009, and finds that the transparency of monetary policy can reduce inflation and improve the level of economic growth.In addition, the empirical part also tests the transparency hypothesis of optimal monetary policy.By introducing the quadratic term of the transparency index of monetary policy into the empirical equation, this paper investigates whether the excessive improvement of the transparency of monetary policy has a marginal diminishing effect on the internal equilibrium of the macro economy.The results show that the influence of monetary policy transparency on the macroeconomic internal equilibrium has marginal diminishing effect, which verifies the hypothesis of optimal monetary policy transparency.In the last part of the empirical study, based on the same sample data, this paper makes a further study on the relationship between monetary policy transparency and inflation rate through the establishment of panel vector autoregressive PVAR-model.Through the analysis of the PVAR estimation results and the impulse response diagram, it is proved that the information disclosure of the central banks of the 11 countries can not only make the market adjust for inflation, but also adjust in the direction consistent with the direction of the central bank's intention.Finally, this paper briefly analyzes the present situation of China's central bank transparency, and puts forward some policy suggestions.In view of the fact that the transparency of China's central bank's monetary policy has been significantly lower than the average level of developed countries, it is necessary for China to take measures to further enhance the level of transparency, give play to the role of inflation expectation management mechanism, and establish a more transparent system.A more efficient policy regulatory framework.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F822.0

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本文編號(hào)：1747871