本文選題：中美貿(mào)易　切入點：匯率波動　出處：《上海外國語大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的表現(xiàn)，國際貿(mào)易已經(jīng)越發(fā)顯現(xiàn)其在推動世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)程當(dāng)中的作用和地位。作為當(dāng)代國際社會兩個貿(mào)易大國，世界上最大的發(fā)展中國家中國和世界上最大的發(fā)達(dá)國家美國之間的貿(mào)易自然最為引人關(guān)注。 隨著兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展以及各個領(lǐng)域的合作的加深、兩國的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)以及出口產(chǎn)品組成的上的差異，兩國的貿(mào)易往來越發(fā)密切，貿(mào)易額也不斷攀升。目前，中美已經(jīng)互為對方第二大貿(mào)易伙伴國。但是，隨著中美貿(mào)易在各方面突飛猛進(jìn)的發(fā)展，貿(mào)易摩擦也日趨增多，這其中為主的就是中美貿(mào)易失衡問題，中國已經(jīng)成為美國貿(mào)易逆差來源國當(dāng)中貿(mào)易逆差額最大的國家，這不但激起了中美貿(mào)易更多的摩擦而且也引起了整個國際貿(mào)易環(huán)境的不穩(wěn)定。 關(guān)于中美貿(mào)易摩擦的原因，美方歸結(jié)為我國人為壓低人民幣匯率，并多次在國際場合指責(zé)我國的人民幣政策，要求人民幣升值。我國在2005年7月21日宣布實行以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)，參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動匯率制度，人民幣開始逐步升值。自我國2005年匯改至今，人民幣匯率雖然一直處于上升通道，但是中美貿(mào)易逆差一直持續(xù)存在。那么人民幣匯率問題究竟是否是中美貿(mào)易巨額逆差的原因所在，這一問題也引起了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究和關(guān)注。 本文在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)資料的基礎(chǔ)上，，介紹了有關(guān)匯率波動和貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系的理論發(fā)展，然后介紹了人民幣匯率機(jī)制的歷史沿革以及人民幣匯率波動對我國對外貿(mào)易的影響，進(jìn)而，對人民幣實際匯率與中美貿(mào)易進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計描述，建立計量模型，根據(jù)中美貿(mào)易2005年9月到2012年4月之間的月度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計分析，得出了人民幣實際匯率波動并不是影響中美貿(mào)易的決定性因素，真正造成中美貿(mào)易失衡的原因在于其他一些深層次因素的結(jié)論。最后，本文給出了自己的政策建議和對于中美貿(mào)易不平衡的進(jìn)一步思考。
[Abstract]:As a manifestation of economic globalization, international trade has increasingly shown its role and position in promoting the development of world economy.The trade between China, the world's largest developing country, and the United States, the world's largest developed country, as two major trading countries in the contemporary international community, naturally attracts most attention.With the deepening of economic development and cooperation in various fields and the differences in economic structure and composition of export products, the trade between the two countries has become more and more close and the volume of trade between the two countries has been rising.At present, China and the United States have become each other's second largest trading partner.This has not only aroused more friction between China and the United States, but also caused instability in the international trading environment as a whole.As to the causes of Sino-US trade frictions, the US side attributed it to the artificially low exchange rate of the RMB in China, and repeatedly criticized China's RMB policy in the international arena, demanding the appreciation of the RMB.On July 21, 2005, China announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies, and the RMB began to appreciate gradually.Since China's exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been rising, but the trade deficit between China and the United States has been persistent.Well, whether the RMB exchange rate is the cause of the huge trade deficit between China and the United States has also aroused the research and attention of domestic and foreign scholars.On the basis of summarizing the literature at home and abroad, this paper introduces the theoretical development of the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and trade income and expenditure, and then introduces the historical evolution of RMB exchange rate mechanism and the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's foreign trade.Then, the real exchange rate of RMB and Sino-US trade are statistically described, and a measurement model is established. The statistical analysis is carried out according to the monthly data of Sino-US trade from September 2005 to April 2012.It is concluded that the fluctuation of RMB's real exchange rate is not the decisive factor affecting Sino-US trade, and the reason for the trade imbalance between China and the United States lies in some other deep-seated factors.Finally, the paper gives its own policy suggestions and further reflection on the trade imbalance between China and the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海外國語大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7;F224

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