本文選題：財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)　切入點(diǎn)：神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)代社會(huì)和市場是瞬息萬變的。企業(yè)、投資人所面對(duì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是前所未有的，特別是信息化技術(shù)的推廣，更使得我們有些措手不及。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾公司（StandardPoor's）于2011年08月06日突然宣布將美國的主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)從“AAA”級(jí)下調(diào)至“AA+”級(jí)，這一消息在全球范圍內(nèi)引起了恐慌，各國股市都較大幅度的下挫，投資者紛紛逃離股市，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢。我們可以看到對(duì)一個(gè)國家的財(cái)務(wù)情況預(yù)測會(huì)對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)造成多大的影響，那么從企業(yè)出發(fā)，我們也需要建立這樣一個(gè)預(yù)測體系，不光為企業(yè)管理者提供了管理企業(yè)的信息和對(duì)企業(yè)評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，也為健全投資市場，保障投資者利益起到了重要的作用。從我國情況來看，隨著市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的建立和我國股市的發(fā)展，企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)問題也日益突出，上市公司因?yàn)樨?cái)務(wù)問題而出現(xiàn)ST或退市的例子屢見不鮮，，這里面的原因是多樣的，但不可否認(rèn)的一點(diǎn)是財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)是其最終的體現(xiàn)，也是其極力想避免的現(xiàn)象。根據(jù)哲學(xué)上質(zhì)變和量變的規(guī)律，財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)也是由淺入深的，這是一個(gè)發(fā)展的過程，如果我們盡早的預(yù)測到財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)會(huì)出現(xiàn)，并采取一系列的措施加以控制，那么我們就會(huì)最大限度的避免財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的出現(xiàn)。 正是基于這種情況，本文以國內(nèi)外研究為基礎(chǔ)，從我國企業(yè)的實(shí)際情況出發(fā)，結(jié)合最新的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)來對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)進(jìn)行預(yù)測，并多方面考慮，建立起一套以數(shù)據(jù)定量分析為基礎(chǔ)；以神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)為途徑；以企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略、公司治理、內(nèi)部控制為目標(biāo)的綜合預(yù)警及分析體系，進(jìn)而對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)加以更好的預(yù)測、分析及控制，最終有助于企業(yè)穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展和企業(yè)目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)，也為社會(huì)創(chuàng)造出了更大的效益。
[Abstract]:Contemporary society and market are changing rapidly.Enterprises, investors are also facing unprecedented risks, especially the promotion of information technology, but also make us some unprepared.Standard Poors & Poor's suddenly announced on Aug. 06, 2011, that it would downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from "AAA" to "AA", a news that caused panic around the world, with stock markets across the world falling sharply.Investors fled stocks and the global economy slowed down.We can see how much impact a country's financial forecast will have on the world economy. From the perspective of enterprises, we also need to establish such a forecasting system.It not only provides management information and evaluation criteria for enterprise managers, but also plays an important role in improving the investment market and protecting the interests of investors.From the point of view of our country, with the establishment of market economy system and the development of stock market in our country, the financial crisis of enterprises is becoming more and more prominent. There are common examples of St or delisting of listed companies because of financial problems.The reasons for this are diverse, but it is undeniable that the financial crisis is its ultimate manifestation and a phenomenon it tries to avoid.According to the law of philosophical qualitative change and quantitative change, financial crisis is also from a shallow to deep, this is a development process, if we predict the financial crisis as soon as possible, and take a series of measures to control it.Then we will avoid financial crisis to the maximum extent possible.Based on this situation, this paper based on the domestic and foreign research, from the actual situation of enterprises in China, combined with the latest neural network technology to predict the financial crisis, and consider many aspects.Set up a set of comprehensive early warning and analysis system based on quantitative analysis of data, neural network, enterprise strategy, corporate governance and internal control, and then make better prediction, analysis and control of enterprise financial crisis.Finally, it helps the steady development of the enterprise and the realization of the enterprise goal, and also creates more benefits for the society.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51;F224

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