發(fā)布時間：2018-03-29 03:22

  本文選題：貨幣政策的傳導　切入點：房地產(chǎn)價格　出處：《中南大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：二十一世紀以來,隨著我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,我國的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)也迅速發(fā)展起來。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展在一定程度上帶動了我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,但是房價過快增長也帶來了一系列負面影響。國家多次采取宏觀調(diào)控措施對房地產(chǎn)價格進行調(diào)控,但效果不佳。因此,基于這樣的背景,研究了貨幣政策對湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導影響。以期通過研究,了解貨幣政策對湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格傳導的通暢性,為改進房地產(chǎn)市場貨幣政策傳導提出合理、有效的建議。 本論文主要研究貨幣政策對湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導影響。通過定性分析與定量分析相結合,研究了貨幣政策對湖南省房地產(chǎn)市場傳導的通暢性。 在定性分析上,首先,通過對相關文獻的研究,對貨幣政策如何向房地產(chǎn)價格傳導進行了理論分析。通過研究總結發(fā)現(xiàn),貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導可以分為兩個環(huán)節(jié)：一是貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導,二是房地產(chǎn)價格對實體經(jīng)濟的傳導。在第一個環(huán)節(jié)中,貨幣政策主要通過利率、信貸以及資產(chǎn)組合三個渠道影響房地產(chǎn)價格；在第二個環(huán)節(jié)中,房地產(chǎn)價格通過影響投資和消費來影響實體經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。房地產(chǎn)價格通過財富效應、家庭負債表效應、擠占效應影響消費；通過直接投資效應、托賓Q效應、資產(chǎn)負債表效應影響投資。貨幣政策通過這兩個環(huán)節(jié)的傳導,來實現(xiàn)其政策目標。 在定量分析上,主要采用了貨幣政策的季度數(shù)據(jù)和湖南省的季度數(shù)據(jù)進行分析,分析主要包括兩部分：一是貨幣政策對湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格傳導的實證分析。通過構建向量自回歸模型分析了利率、金融機構貸款余額對湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格的影響。通過對模型進行Johansen協(xié)整檢驗、平穩(wěn)性檢驗、Granger因果關系檢驗,利用脈沖響應函數(shù)以及方差分解進行進一步分析,研究了貨幣政策與湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格之間的長期關系以及前者短期波動對后者的影響。二是湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格對湖南省實體經(jīng)濟的實證分析。通過定量分析,得出了以下結論： (1)從長期來看,湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格跟利率、金融機構貸款余額以呈同方向變動,金融機構貸款余額對湖南房房地產(chǎn)價格的影響顯著,而利率對湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格的影響不顯著。 (2)在短期內(nèi),湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格跟利率呈同方向變動,跟金融機構貸款余額呈反方向變動。但兩者對湖南省價格的影響都不顯著。 (3)在長期內(nèi),湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格對與湖南省GDP、消費以及投資均呈正相關關系,其中湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格對湖南省GDP和投資影響顯著,而對消費影響不顯著。 (4)在短期內(nèi),湖南房價跟湖南省GDP、投資呈同方向變動,與消費呈反方向變動。湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格對湖南GDP、消費和投資的影響都不顯著。 通過定量分析發(fā)現(xiàn),房地產(chǎn)價格對宏觀經(jīng)濟具有較明顯的影響,而貨幣政策對湖南省房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導還不夠通暢。就其原因,主要有兩個方面：一是貨幣政策的本身還不夠完善,二是貨幣政策的傳導存在一定的區(qū)域差異性。由此,本文從推進市場化利率,運用多重調(diào)控工具,下放部分調(diào)控權,關注房地產(chǎn)價格四個方面出發(fā),提出改進房地產(chǎn)市場貨幣政策傳導的建議。
[Abstract]:Since the twenty - first century , with the development of our country ' s economy , the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly . The development of real estate industry has brought about a series of negative impacts on the real estate price .

This paper mainly studies the influence of monetary policy on real estate price in Hunan Province . Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis , this paper studies the smoothness of monetary policy on real estate market in Hunan Province .

On the qualitative analysis , firstly , through the research of the relevant literatures , the paper analyzes how the monetary policy transmits to the real estate price . Through the research , it is found that the transmission of the monetary policy on the real estate price can be divided into two parts : one is the conduction of the monetary policy on the real estate price , the second is the conduction of the real estate price to the real economy . In the first link , the monetary policy mainly affects the real estate price through three channels of interest rate , credit and asset combination ;
In the second part , real estate prices influence the development of real economy by influencing investment and consumption . The real estate prices influence consumption through wealth effect , balance sheet effect and crowding effect ;
Through the direct investment effect , the Tobin Q effect , the balance sheet effect affects investment . The monetary policy is conducted through the two links to achieve its policy objectives .

In the quantitative analysis , the quarterly data of monetary policy and quarterly data of Hunan Province are mainly used to analyze and analyze the impact of monetary policy on the real estate price in Hunan Province . By using the model , we analyze the effect of interest rate and financial institution loan balance on real estate price in Hunan Province . By analyzing the model , we study the long - term relationship between the monetary policy and real estate price in Hunan Province and the influence of the former short - term fluctuation on the latter .

( 1 ) In the long run , the real estate price and interest rate of Hunan Province , the loan balance of financial institution are changed in the same direction , and the loan balance of financial institution is significant to the real estate price of Hunan . However , the interest rate is not significant to the real estate price of Hunan Province .

( 2 ) In the short term , the real estate price of Hunan Province changed in the same direction with the interest rate , and the loan balance of the financial institution changed in the opposite direction , but both had no significant effect on the price of Hunan Province .

( 3 ) In the long run , the real estate price of Hunan is positively correlated with the GDP , consumption and investment in Hunan Province .

( 4 ) In the short term , Hunan ' s housing price changes in the same direction with GDP and investment in Hunan Province . The real estate prices in Hunan are not significant to the GDP , consumption and investment of Hunan Province .

The quantitative analysis finds that the real estate price has more obvious influence on the macro economy , and the monetary policy is not good enough for the real estate price of Hunan Province . For its reasons , there are two main aspects : firstly , the monetary policy is not perfect itself , the second is the regional difference of the conduction of monetary policy .

【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23

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