本文選題：利率　切入點(diǎn)：通貨膨脹　出處：《中共中央黨校》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前權(quán)威的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教科書中,利率與存款準(zhǔn)備金率、公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)操作一并被作為貨幣政策的三大工具。同時(shí),控制通貨膨脹又是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的主要目標(biāo)之一。因而長(zhǎng)久以來(lái),學(xué)術(shù)界有一種占主導(dǎo)地位的看法是中央銀行可以通過(guò)提高“利率”對(duì)通貨膨脹進(jìn)行調(diào)控。本文研究認(rèn)為,“利率”并不能作為央行的政策工具,央行也不能通過(guò)提高“利率”達(dá)到控制通貨膨脹的目的。 任何學(xué)術(shù)研究都是在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上起步的,因此為了展開(kāi)對(duì)這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)的論述,本文首先對(duì)有關(guān)利率與通脹的決定與形成機(jī)制、利率與通脹變動(dòng)關(guān)系的研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了綜述,并對(duì)有代表性的理論觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了評(píng)論。通過(guò)這些述評(píng),作者認(rèn)為費(fèi)雪的人性不耐決定說(shuō)與弗里德曼的貨幣供應(yīng)量決定說(shuō)最具說(shuō)服力。故這兩個(gè)學(xué)說(shuō)成為了本論文重要的理論基礎(chǔ)。 在對(duì)中外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)分析之后,本文對(duì)利率的決定原因和形成機(jī)制做了深入的研究。作者對(duì)人性不耐的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)涵義進(jìn)行了進(jìn)一步的分析,并對(duì)個(gè)人及社會(huì)整體不耐在利率形成中的作用做了描述。本文提出了貸方與借方剩余的概念,指出自然利率最終要使貸方剩余與借方剩余趨于相等。 在明確了利率的根本決定因素之后,作者對(duì)費(fèi)雪的收入與資本價(jià)值理論進(jìn)行了補(bǔ)充,將資產(chǎn)提供的用于消費(fèi)和積累的收入統(tǒng)一起來(lái),總稱為“廣義收入流”。這樣就把個(gè)人獲得的收入與資產(chǎn)提供的收入統(tǒng)一了起來(lái)。隨后,作者將人性不耐劃分成了“消費(fèi)不耐”與“投資不耐”,并分析了影響投資不耐的因素。筆者還提出了資產(chǎn)折現(xiàn)值吻合度模型,利用該模型說(shuō)明了兩種不耐對(duì)利率的決定作用。這樣就增強(qiáng)了人性不耐決定說(shuō)對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題的解釋力。 關(guān)于通貨膨脹的成因和形成機(jī)制,本文討論了貨幣供求與通貨膨脹的關(guān)系,闡述了貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)加速后實(shí)際貨幣需求量與貨幣流通速度變化的機(jī)制,以及貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的情況下一般價(jià)格水平的變化過(guò)程,從而明確了通貨膨脹的成因在于貨幣的過(guò)量供應(yīng)。 作者還對(duì)貨幣政策時(shí)滯效應(yīng)理論進(jìn)行了擴(kuò)充。闡明了研究貨幣政策時(shí)滯效應(yīng)對(duì)分析通脹原因的作用,提出了“難免發(fā)生順逆的差額”、“投資收益的不確定”、“現(xiàn)金與其他形式資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換時(shí)的交易成本”、“貨物流通中可變的交易成本”和“企業(yè)對(duì)收入增長(zhǎng)原因的判斷”等共同造成了貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)加速后貨幣流通速度下降。同時(shí),本文分析了閑置專門生產(chǎn)品重新投入生產(chǎn)增加可交易產(chǎn)品總量的可能性,從而補(bǔ)充了貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)加速后產(chǎn)量變化的“緩沖機(jī)制”。 在明確了利率與通脹各自的決定原因和形成機(jī)制之后,本文對(duì)利率變動(dòng)與通貨膨脹關(guān)系做了深入研究。在確定利率與通脹決定原因和形成機(jī)制不一致的基礎(chǔ)上,推導(dǎo)出由市場(chǎng)調(diào)節(jié)的實(shí)際利率變動(dòng)與貨幣供應(yīng)變動(dòng)沒(méi)有必然聯(lián)系。作者不僅從不耐角度解釋了通脹時(shí)期實(shí)際低利率或負(fù)利率的原因,而且從利率變化對(duì)資金循環(huán)的影響,央行提高利率后商業(yè)銀行的應(yīng)對(duì)措施,提高利率對(duì)基礎(chǔ)貨幣供應(yīng)的影響,提高利率對(duì)貨幣乘數(shù)的影響等四個(gè)方面論證了人為提高利率反而不利于控制貨幣供應(yīng)。通過(guò)對(duì)近十六年來(lái)利率與貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)率統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的分析,證明了不論是存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率還是市場(chǎng)基準(zhǔn)利率(以七日拆借利率代替)的變動(dòng)均不能起到控制貨幣供應(yīng)量的作用。這樣就證明了利率變動(dòng)不能起到調(diào)控通貨膨脹的作用。 本文還研究了提高利率影響生產(chǎn)加劇通脹的可能性。作者修正并完善了哈耶克的生產(chǎn)過(guò)程理論。在生產(chǎn)過(guò)程理論與吻合度模型相結(jié)合的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)比分析了在由市場(chǎng)自發(fā)調(diào)節(jié)利率與脫離不耐提高利率兩種條件下,生產(chǎn)過(guò)程結(jié)構(gòu)變化趨勢(shì)的差異。通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),脫離不耐提高利率將使產(chǎn)品總有效供給量相比利率由市場(chǎng)自發(fā)調(diào)節(jié)時(shí)降低。并且,在貨幣供應(yīng)量持續(xù)過(guò)快增的條件下,這種負(fù)面影響可以被放大從而使通貨膨脹更為嚴(yán)重。 最后,本文總結(jié)了有代表性的國(guó)家和地區(qū)在治理通脹與利率調(diào)整方面的實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn),并以此印證了前面章節(jié)所提出的觀點(diǎn)。 縱觀全文,筆者主要在以下幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了創(chuàng)新：明確了利率與通脹的決定機(jī)制不相同；證明了市場(chǎng)自發(fā)調(diào)節(jié)時(shí)實(shí)際利率與貨幣供應(yīng)沒(méi)有必然聯(lián)系；調(diào)高利率不能抑制或減少貨幣供應(yīng),得出了調(diào)高利率不能抑制通貨膨脹的結(jié)論；從不耐角度對(duì)通脹時(shí)期實(shí)際低利率或負(fù)利率的討論；對(duì)費(fèi)雪的人性不耐決定說(shuō)的修正與補(bǔ)充；對(duì)弗里德曼貨幣政策時(shí)滯效應(yīng)理論的補(bǔ)充；對(duì)哈耶克生產(chǎn)過(guò)程理論的修正與補(bǔ)充；將生產(chǎn)過(guò)程理論與吻合度模型相結(jié)合討論人為提高利率對(duì)生產(chǎn)的負(fù)面影響等。 本論文的研究方法主要為：規(guī)范與實(shí)證分析、個(gè)體與總量分析、定性與定量分析、動(dòng)態(tài)與靜態(tài)分析等。在研究過(guò)程中,作者提出了一些概念,希望這些概念在今后能夠應(yīng)用于相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究中。這些概念包括：借方剩余、貸方剩余、廣義收入流、投資不耐、資產(chǎn)折現(xiàn)值吻合度等。
[Abstract]:At present, the authority of the economics textbooks, the interest rate and deposit reserve ratio, open market operations can be used as the three tools of monetary policy. At the same time, the control of inflation is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic policy. So for a long time, the academic circles have a dominant position is the view of the central bank can raise interest rates. "The inflation under control. This paper argues that the" interest rate "and not as the central bank's policy tools, the central bank can not by increasing the" interest rate "achieve the purpose of controlling inflation.
Any academic research is started on the basis of previous studies, in order to start the discussion, this paper first on the interest rate and inflation decision and formation mechanism research literatures the relationship between interest rate and inflation, and the representative theories are reviewed. Through the review of the the author thinks, Fisher's impatient human nature decided that the money supply and the decision of Freedman said the most persuasive. Therefore, these two theories has become an important theoretical basis for this thesis.
After the analysis of related literature, this paper determines the cause and mechanism of the interest rate to do in-depth study. The economics meaning of intolerance of humanity were further analyzed, and the individual and the society as a whole is not high in the interest rate formation effect is described. This paper puts forward the concept of lenders and borrowers remaining finally, pointed out that the natural rate of interest to the lender and borrower surplus surplus tend to be equal.
After defining the fundamental determinants of the interest rate, income and capital value theory of Fisher's were added, will provide the assets for consumption and accumulation of unified income, collectively referred to as the "general income stream". So the personal income obtained with assets to provide income to unity. Then, the author will human nature is divided into "consumer resistance intolerance" and "investment intolerance", and analyzes the influencing factors of investment intolerance. The author also puts forward the liquidity value fit model, the model shows that two is not resistant to a decisive role in the interest rate. So it can enhance the human resistance of said decision the practical problems of the explanatory power.
And the formation mechanism of inflation, this paper discusses the relationship between money supply and inflation, expounds the actual amount of money supply growth accelerated after the currency demand and currency speed change mechanism, and the money supply growth rate than the general price level change process of productivity growth situation, in order to make clear the causes of inflation is that the excess supply of money.
The monetary policy lag effect theory is extended. The delay of the monetary policy effect on the analysis of the reasons of inflation effect, put forward "inevitably occurred along the counter balance", "uncertain" investment income, cash and other forms of asset conversion when the transaction cost, transaction cost variable goods in circulation "and" enterprise income growth judging the cause of "the common cause of the money supply growth accelerated after the monetary velocity decline. At the same time, this paper analyzes the special products idle back into production can increase the possibility of the total trading products, to supplement money supply growth accelerated after the change of output" buffer ".
After making the decision because of interest rates and inflation and their formation mechanism, this paper makes a thorough study on the relationship between interest rates and inflation. In determining interest rates and inflation determine the cause and foundation of mechanism is not consistent, adjusted by the market actual interest rate and money supply changes are not necessarily linked. The author not only never derived resistance explanations for the actual inflation low or negative interest rates, and interest rate changes on the impact of capital circulation, measures the central bank to raise interest rates of commercial banks, improve the impact of interest rates on the basis of the money supply, improve the four aspects of interest rate impact on monetary multiplier that artificially raise interest rates but not conducive to the control of money supply. Through the analysis of the interest rate and money supply growth rate of statistical data in recent sixteen years, whether it is proved that the benchmark deposit and lending rates are still The change of market benchmark interest rate (instead of seven day lending rate) does not play a role in controlling the money supply. This proves that interest rate change can not play a role in regulating inflation.
This paper also studies the effects of inflation and higher interest rates of production possibilities. The authors revise and improve the production process of Hayek's theory. Based on the production process theory and fit model combined, compared and analyzed in the regulated by the market interest rate and not from Naiti interest rates under the two conditions, differences in structure evolution of production trends the study found that out of intolerance to raise interest rates will make the total effective supply of products decreased compared to the amount of the interest rate regulated by the market. And the continued rapid increase in the money supply, the negative effect can be amplified so that inflation is more serious.
Finally, this paper summarizes the practical experience of some typical countries and regions in controlling inflation and interest rate adjustment, and confirms the views put forward in the preceding chapters.
Throughout the paper, the main innovations are as follows: a clear decision mechanism of the interest rate and inflation is not the same; that the spontaneous adjustment of the market real interest rates and money supply are not necessarily linked; higher interest rates can inhibit or reduce the money supply, the higher interest rates to curb inflation cannot be concluded; never discuss resistance angle the actual inflation low or negative interest rates; the Fisher humanity intolerance amendments decided; supplement to the time lag effect of monetary policy on the theory of Freedman; revised and added Hayek production process theory; production process theory and fit model combining discuss the negative influence of human to raise interest rates on production etc..
The major research methods of this dissertation: normative and empirical analysis, analysis of individual and total, qualitative and quantitative analysis, static and dynamic analysis. In the research process, the author puts forward some concepts, hoping these concepts can be applied to future research in related fields. These concepts include: the borrower surplus, surplus credits the general flow of income, investment, intolerance, asset discounted value fit.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F822.5

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉建中;資本配置效率研究[D];中共中央黨校;2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1652041