本文選題：匯率變動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：上市公司的外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化條件下,國(guó)際貿(mào)易的深入開(kāi)展為我國(guó)上市公司帶來(lái)了機(jī)遇和前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。上市公司可以利用開(kāi)放的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境開(kāi)展更多的國(guó)際交流合作,引進(jìn)先進(jìn)的技術(shù),將自身的產(chǎn)品推向國(guó)際。與此同時(shí),由于國(guó)際貿(mào)易的結(jié)算貨幣是以美元、歐元等強(qiáng)勢(shì)貨幣為主,人民幣還沒(méi)能成為國(guó)際上通用的結(jié)算貨幣,因此匯率的變動(dòng)會(huì)直接對(duì)企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)成果產(chǎn)生影響。特別是在人民幣匯率改革之后,匯率制度更加具有彈性,匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)于上市公司收益的影響更加不可忽視。因此,本文重點(diǎn)研究了在開(kāi)放的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下,在匯率制度改革后的幾年時(shí)間里匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)上市公司的影響。 首先,從理論角度介紹了我國(guó)匯率制度的變遷歷史和當(dāng)今匯率的現(xiàn)狀以及成因。匯率制度改革以來(lái)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境瞬息萬(wàn)變,先是發(fā)生了美國(guó)次級(jí)債務(wù)危機(jī)引起的全球性金融危機(jī),然后是歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)不斷蔓延。在這種情況之下,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況發(fā)展勢(shì)頭良好,因此人民幣不斷的形成了升值的事實(shí)和預(yù)期。這種匯率的變化對(duì)進(jìn)出口企業(yè)也是一把雙刃劍,一方面有利于增加人民幣的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力,另一方面也使得我國(guó)產(chǎn)品的成本提升失去國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,這些無(wú)疑對(duì)于上市公司的利潤(rùn)都會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大影響。其次,從理論上分析了我國(guó)上市公司外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)涵、衡量方法以及匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)上市公司的影響,正是因?yàn)閰R率的變動(dòng)會(huì)直接或者間接的產(chǎn)生企業(yè)的交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),最終通過(guò)影響匯兌損益或者財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用的渠道影響公司的利潤(rùn),因此公司的外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露和管理才是必須研究和重視的問(wèn)題。第三,論述了不同類(lèi)型的上市公司的外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn),說(shuō)明了外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在我國(guó)上市公司的存在是具有普遍性的。接著論述了我國(guó)企業(yè)管理外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的現(xiàn)狀和存在的問(wèn)題。由于我國(guó)匯率制度改革較西方先進(jìn)國(guó)家晚,因此對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的理念和體系并不完善,需要進(jìn)一步改進(jìn)。第四,用實(shí)證分析的方法分析匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)上市公司的影響。本文借鑒了Jorion的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露模型,對(duì)我國(guó)滬市A股106家公司進(jìn)行了分析,得出的結(jié)論是匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)上市公司的收益影響非常明顯。這些實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果與理論預(yù)期是保持一致的。鑒于外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)于上市公司存在明顯的影響,本文最后提出了上市公司規(guī)避外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的手段和建議。通過(guò)外匯交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)內(nèi)部控制、利用外匯金融衍生工具規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、提升自主研發(fā)能力以提高自身盈利能力、加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范意識(shí)、提升風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范能力等多個(gè)方面共同協(xié)作,最大限度規(guī)避企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提升企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)空間。 本文在研究我國(guó)上市公司的外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問(wèn)題時(shí)將理論分析與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合。從新的角度研究外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露情況,通過(guò)選取擁有不同程度海外收入的從事出口業(yè)務(wù)的上市公司作為研究對(duì)象分析匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)上市公司整體的影響。實(shí)證分析的顯著性結(jié)果與理論現(xiàn)實(shí)大都保持一致,無(wú)疑都提升了本文研究結(jié)果的全面性和可信性。但是在模型分析階段,由于股票收益率這一指標(biāo)是受政策變動(dòng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)、市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)等多方面因素影響的,而且我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)并不完善,股市存在著很多短期投機(jī)現(xiàn)象,會(huì)導(dǎo)致股票信息有效性的削弱,另外仍存在著不能量化的非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)會(huì)影響公司的股價(jià),是需要在以后的研究中進(jìn)一步完善的。但是從整體上說(shuō),本文的理論和實(shí)證分析都足以反映出我國(guó)上市公司外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的普遍存在,也提出了一系列防范外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施,是具有實(shí)際意義和參考意義的。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of global economic integration, the international trade development for the listed companies in China has brought opportunities and challenges. Hitherto unknown companies can carry out international exchanges and cooperation with more open economic environment, the introduction of advanced technology, its products to the international. At the same time, due to the international trade settlement currency is in dollars. The euro strong currency, the renminbi has yet to become common in the international settlement currency, the exchange rate will have a direct impact on the operating results of an enterprise. Especially after the RMB exchange rate reform, the exchange rate system more flexible, the impact of exchange rate changes for the earnings of listed companies can not be ignored. Therefore, this paper this research focuses on the condition of open economy, the exchange rate system reform in the several years after the exchange rate changes on China's listed companies influence.
First, from a theoretical point of view, introduces the exchange rate system in China history and current situation of the exchange rate and exchange rate formation. Since the reform of the system of international economic environment, first occurred in the US subprime debt crisis caused by the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis is spreading. In this situation, our country economic development good momentum, so the RMB continuously formed the appreciation of the facts and expectations. Changes in the exchange rate of the import and export enterprises is also a double-edged sword, on the one hand to increase the purchasing power of the yuan, on the other hand also makes our products loss international competitiveness, which is undoubtedly the profits of listed companies will have a huge impact. Secondly, from the theoretical analysis of the connotation of the foreign exchange risk of Listed Companies in China, and the measure of the exchange rate change to the listed company. Ring, it is because of changes in the exchange rate will directly or indirectly generate enterprise transaction risk, accounting risk and economic risk, finally through the influence of exchange gains and losses of financial expenses or channels affect the company's profit, so the company's exposure to foreign exchange risk management is necessary and research and attention. Third, this paper discusses the different types of the listed company shows the existence of foreign exchange risk, foreign exchange risk of Listed Companies in China is universal. And then discusses the status quo of China's foreign exchange risk management and the existing problems. Since the reform of China's exchange rate regime later than advanced western countries, the concept of risk management and the system is not perfect, need to further improvement. Fourth, empirical analysis method is used to analyze the exchange rate changes on the impact of listed companies. This paper use Jorion risk model to China Shanghai A shares 106 public Our analyses, the conclusion is very obvious changes in the exchange rate impact on earnings of Listed Companies in China. The empirical results are consistent with theoretical expectations. In view of the foreign exchange risk for the apparent effect of listed companies, the paper finally puts forward the listed companies to avoid foreign exchange risks means and suggestions. Through foreign exchange risk the internal control, the use of foreign exchange derivatives to avoid risks, enhance the ability of the independent research and development to improve their profitability, strengthen risk prevention awareness, enhance the ability of risk prevention and other aspects of cooperation, the maximum to avoid the risk of the enterprise, enhance corporate profit margins.
Based on the study of the management of Listed Companies in China's foreign exchange risk will combine theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. From a new perspective on the foreign exchange risk exposure, by selecting different degrees of overseas income in the export business of listed companies as the research object of exchange rate changes on the listed company's influence. Significant results of empirical analysis the theory and reality are consistent, comprehensive and undoubtedly enhance the credibility of the research results. But in the analysis stage, because stock returns of this index is affected by policy changes, economic situation, many factors such as market structure, and China's financial market is not perfect, there are a lot of short-term stock market speculation phenomenon, will lead to the effectiveness of the stock information weakened, there are still some non-financial indicators cannot be quantified will affect the company's share price is required It should be further improved in the future research. But on the whole, the theoretical and empirical analysis in this paper is enough to reflect the prevalence of foreign exchange risk in China's listed companies, and put forward a series of measures to prevent foreign exchange risks, which is of practical significance and reference significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F276.6

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