本文選題：國(guó)際貨幣體系　切入點(diǎn)：內(nèi)外失衡　出處：《南開(kāi)大學(xué)》2012年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已深度融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)金融一體化，中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為國(guó)際貨幣金融體系等全球“游戲規(guī)則”的重要參與者，受這些“游戲規(guī)則”的影響與制約也越來(lái)越大。尤其在當(dāng)今美元本位制下，中國(guó)不但面臨巨大的國(guó)際收支失衡壓力，而且內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)嚴(yán)重扭曲。一方面中國(guó)對(duì)外長(zhǎng)期巨額順差，積累了全球最多的外匯儲(chǔ)備，且隨著美元不斷貶值遭受了巨大的匯兌損失；另一方面國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)長(zhǎng)期低迷、儲(chǔ)蓄“過(guò)�！薄Ｅc之極不對(duì)稱(chēng)的是，當(dāng)今國(guó)際貨幣體系的中心國(guó)家美國(guó)，，卻長(zhǎng)期國(guó)際收支巨額赤字，并依賴(lài)美元的國(guó)際貨幣地位向中國(guó)等外圍國(guó)家不斷舉債以支撐其國(guó)內(nèi)過(guò)度消費(fèi)。美元本位制下這種脆弱的“游戲”模式，最終導(dǎo)致了美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)的爆發(fā)。危機(jī)發(fā)生后，部分政府和學(xué)者把中、美經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡以及這次金融危機(jī)，歸咎于中國(guó)依賴(lài)于出口拉動(dòng)的外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式以及中國(guó)居民的高儲(chǔ)蓄、低消費(fèi)行為；而另外一些學(xué)者則從當(dāng)今國(guó)際貨幣體系的弊端，深入考察中、美以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的根源，并寄希望于通過(guò)國(guó)際貨幣體系改革緩解失衡，呼吁提升人民幣在國(guó)際貨幣體系中的地位。 本文所關(guān)心的問(wèn)題：第一，以主權(quán)信用貨幣作為儲(chǔ)備貨幣的國(guó)際貨幣體系，是否是當(dāng)今全球失衡的重要原因？該國(guó)際貨幣體系對(duì)全球失衡調(diào)整有何影響？第二，在美元本位制下，人民幣的非國(guó)際貨幣地位是否是導(dǎo)致過(guò)去幾十年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡的原因？若是，則隨著人民幣國(guó)際化程度不斷提高及人民幣的國(guó)際地位的上升，又會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的內(nèi)外失衡調(diào)整有何影響？第三，為了緩解中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡及全球失衡，國(guó)際貨幣體系應(yīng)如何改革？中國(guó)的占優(yōu)策略是什么？ 為此，本文首先基于金融史實(shí)，分析從1880年以來(lái)國(guó)際貨幣體系演變表現(xiàn)出的不對(duì)稱(chēng)特征以及與全球失衡之間的關(guān)系，并重點(diǎn)考察了現(xiàn)行國(guó)際貨幣體系的不對(duì)稱(chēng)總體特征，以及在現(xiàn)行國(guó)際貨幣體系下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡的經(jīng)驗(yàn)事實(shí)。 基于上述經(jīng)驗(yàn)事實(shí)，本文先建立了基于國(guó)際收支貨幣分析法的理論分析框架，探討了一國(guó)主權(quán)信用貨幣作為國(guó)際貨幣、其它主權(quán)國(guó)家貨幣為外圍貨幣（非國(guó)際貨幣）的不對(duì)稱(chēng)國(guó)際貨幣體系安排下，是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡；以及在這種不對(duì)稱(chēng)的國(guó)際貨幣體系下，全球失衡調(diào)整能否通過(guò)匯率調(diào)整順利進(jìn)行。研究表明，在以一國(guó)主權(quán)貨幣作為國(guó)際貨幣的不對(duì)稱(chēng)國(guó)際貨幣體系安排下，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡將無(wú)法避免；并且，匯率調(diào)整將不再有效，國(guó)際貨幣體系中心國(guó)家任何針對(duì)國(guó)際收支調(diào)整的政策選擇都將導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的不穩(wěn)定，甚至誘發(fā)金融危機(jī)。 在進(jìn)行上述一般規(guī)律探討的基礎(chǔ)上，本文基于考慮了現(xiàn)行國(guó)際貨幣體系不對(duì)稱(chēng)因素的開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下的動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡（DSGE）模型和新開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（NOEM）模型，著重研究了在不對(duì)稱(chēng)的國(guó)際貨幣體系下，人民幣的非國(guó)際貨幣地位、以及人民幣的國(guó)際地位上升（即人民幣的不斷國(guó)際化）對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡與調(diào)整的影響。結(jié)論表明：人民幣的非國(guó)際貨幣地位，是導(dǎo)致中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡——國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)長(zhǎng)期不足、儲(chǔ)蓄過(guò)高，國(guó)際收支長(zhǎng)期順差、外匯儲(chǔ)備過(guò)度增長(zhǎng)的重要原因；而人民幣國(guó)際地位不斷提升——人民幣國(guó)際化程度不斷提高，其它國(guó)家對(duì)人民幣的需求不斷增加，將有助于增加中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)、減少過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄、平衡國(guó)際收支，改善中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡狀況。 基于上述分析，本文又對(duì)國(guó)際貨幣體系改革方向、當(dāng)前中國(guó)可行的最優(yōu)政策選擇進(jìn)行了研究，并得到了如下主要政策建議：建立美元、人民幣、歐元等為主要國(guó)際貨幣的多元國(guó)際貨幣體系，將是解決中國(guó)和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡相對(duì)可行的最優(yōu)方案；而對(duì)于中國(guó)而言，穩(wěn)健推進(jìn)人民幣適度國(guó)際化、以及進(jìn)行必要的制度建設(shè)，對(duì)于解決我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外失衡具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economy has Chinese depth into the global economic and financial integration, has become an important participant in the international monetary and financial systems Chinese global "game rules", the "rules of the game" and restrictive influence is growing. Especially in today's dollars of this system, China not only face a huge imbalance of payments pressure moreover, internal economic distortions. On the one hand, Chinese foreign long-term accumulated a huge surplus, the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and with the continuous depreciation of the dollar suffered huge foreign exchange losses; on the other hand, the domestic consumption of long-term slump, "excess" savings. With very asymmetric, National Center of the international monetary system of the United States however, the long-term balance of payments deficits, and rely on the currency to Chinese peripheral countries such as debt to support its continued excessive domestic consumer dollars. Standard of this fragile "game" mode, eventually led to the outbreak of the subprime loan crisis. After the crisis, the government and scholars, the economic imbalances and the financial crisis, due to the China rely on export led export-oriented economic growth mode and the high savings China residents, low consumption behavior; while some scholars from the disadvantages of current international monetary system, in-depth study, beauty and global economic imbalances in the roots, and hope that through the reform of the international monetary system to ease the imbalance, to upgrade the status of RMB in the international monetary system.
This paper concerns: first, the sovereign credit currency as a reserve currency of the international monetary system, whether it is an important reason for today's global imbalances in the international monetary system? What is the effect of adjustment of global imbalances? Second, under the dollar standard, the renminbi non international currency is the cause of the past few decades of economic China the internal and external imbalance? If so, then increase with the degree of internationalization of the RMB rising and the international status of the RMB, how it will affect the China economic imbalance adjustment? Third, in order to alleviate the Chinese economic imbalances and global imbalances, the international monetary system should be how to reform? What is the dominant strategy for Chinese?
Therefore, this paper based on the financial facts, from the analysis of the asymmetry of the evolution of the international monetary system since 1880 shows and global imbalances between, and focuses on the general characteristics of the asymmetry of the current international monetary system, as well as in the existing international monetary system under unbalanced Chinese internal and external economic facts.
The experience is based on the fact, this article first established a monetary approach to balance of payments based on the theoretical analysis framework, discusses the sovereign credit currency as an international currency, other sovereign currency for outer currency (non international currency) for asymmetric international monetary system, will lead to global economic imbalances; and in this asymmetric international the monetary system, the global imbalance adjustment can be carried out smoothly through the adjustment of the exchange rate. The results show that in a country's currency as international monetary asymmetry of the international monetary system, the global economic imbalance will not be avoided; and the exchange rate adjustment will no longer be valid, center of the International Monetary System for any country to the balance of payments policy choice will lead to the instability of the global economy, and even induce financial crisis.
Based on the general rules of study, based on the consideration of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium factors of the current international monetary system asymmetry under the open economy condition (DSGE) model and the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model, focuses on the asymmetry of the international monetary system, non international currency status of RMB, rising and the international status of RMB (i.e. RMB internationalization) influence on the Chinese economic imbalances and adjustment. Conclusion: non international currency status of RMB, is the result of Chinese economic imbalances, domestic consumption is insufficient in the long term, high savings, long-term balance of payments surplus, an important reason for excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves and the international status of RMB; - constantly improve the degree of internationalization of the RMB rising demand for RMB in other countries continue to increase, will help increase To increase the consumption of Chinese residents, to reduce excessive savings, to balance the balance of payments and to improve the internal and external imbalance in China's economy.
Based on the above analysis, this paper on the reform direction of the international monetary system, the choice of China feasible optimal policy is studied, and obtained the following policy recommendations: the establishment of the RMB and Euro dollars, as the main international currency diversified international monetary system, will be China and resolve internal and external imbalances in the world economy is relatively feasible optimal solution; for China, steadily push forward the RMB internationalization, and the necessary system construction, to solve China's economic imbalances and has important significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開(kāi)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F821;F224

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