本文選題：利率政策效果　切入點(diǎn)：操作工具　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：利率是貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)中最受關(guān)注的一個經(jīng)濟(jì)變量。自亞當(dāng).斯密以來,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家就一直非常關(guān)注利率及利率政策在經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中的作用,魏克賽爾(1898)明確地提出了關(guān)于利率政策的"三個命題",凱恩斯將利率置于貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的核心地位,現(xiàn)代中央銀行更是將利率政策作為重要的貨幣政策頻頻用于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行調(diào)控。中國人民銀行自成立以來就高度重視利率政策在調(diào)控宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中的重要作用;1984年中國人民銀行獨(dú)立行使中央銀行職能以來,更是多次變動調(diào)控利率以實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的政策目的。一國中央銀行實(shí)施利率政策的效果,是國內(nèi)外學(xué)者長期討論的熱點(diǎn)。關(guān)于利率政策效果,理論界尚未取得一致共識。這里,似乎產(chǎn)生了一個矛盾的現(xiàn)象:即利率政策存在理論上的紛爭和實(shí)踐中的重視。那么,轉(zhuǎn)型期我國利率政策效果究竟表現(xiàn)如何?應(yīng)該從哪些層面來全面把握利率政策效果?我國利率政策效果制約的關(guān)鍵性因素是什么?如何提升我國利率政策效果?我國利率政策未來會發(fā)生怎樣的變化和轉(zhuǎn)型?顯然,系統(tǒng)深入研究利率政策效果,有利于豐富轉(zhuǎn)型期我國利率政策的理論研究,為后續(xù)研究和相關(guān)研究提供有價值的理論參考。同時,也為我國中央銀行利率政策實(shí)踐提供理論依據(jù),推動我國利率制度變遷和貨幣政策操作規(guī)程轉(zhuǎn)型。立足貨幣政策操作工具角度,結(jié)合利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制和利率制度變遷,本文從經(jīng)濟(jì)體系角度(經(jīng)濟(jì)主體行為層面、產(chǎn)業(yè)與區(qū)域?qū)用?、貨幣操作規(guī)程角度以及貨幣政策分析角度來較為系統(tǒng)地探討利率政策效果。為此,全文研究安排如下:第一章主要界定了利率政策的內(nèi)涵與特征,并闡述了研究思路、創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)及研究不足。第二章圍繞利率政策效果梳理了國內(nèi)外有關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)。第三章闡述了轉(zhuǎn)型期我國利率政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制和利率制度變遷理論。第四章研究了利率政策對居民儲蓄、居民消費(fèi)、企業(yè)投資、銀行信貸、企業(yè)進(jìn)出口等經(jīng)濟(jì)主體行為的影響效果。第五章從產(chǎn)業(yè)和區(qū)域兩個層面對比考察利率政策效果。第六章從操作目標(biāo)、中間目標(biāo)和最終目標(biāo)三個層次對比考察了率政策效果。第七章采用沃什貨幣政策分析模型,從封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)條件和開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件對比考察利率政策效果。第八章為結(jié)論與政策建議部分。本文試圖從以上方面拓展現(xiàn)有研究,并得出以下主要結(jié)論:第一,認(rèn)為利率政策具有貨幣政策、中介目標(biāo)、傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制、操作工具、制度安排等不同層面的內(nèi)涵;指出利率政策效果可以從定義層面、操作規(guī)程層面、作用的經(jīng)濟(jì)層面、制度層面來進(jìn)行分類;發(fā)現(xiàn)從貨幣政策操作工具角度來研究利率政策效果成為主流趨勢。第二,本文通過1978-1995和1996-2011兩個時間段來對比研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)利率政策制度變遷能夠提升利率政策效果。同時,本文根據(jù)利率政策效果的產(chǎn)業(yè)和區(qū)域差異性,提出中央銀行應(yīng)當(dāng)實(shí)施產(chǎn)業(yè)差別化和區(qū)域差別化的利率政策,以提高利率政策的針對性和有效性。第三,本文考察了轉(zhuǎn)型期我國中央銀行實(shí)際運(yùn)用的三大工具對操作目標(biāo)、中間目標(biāo)以及政策目標(biāo)影響的數(shù)量效果和時間效果,發(fā)現(xiàn)利率政策對中間目標(biāo)、最終目標(biāo)的影響效果好。第四,本文引入基于新凱恩斯主義框架的沃什貨幣政策分析模型,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)利率政策操作具有平滑性特征,在封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)條件更加關(guān)注通脹偏離,在開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下更加關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲基金利率波動。第五,本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn),利率政策在我國當(dāng)前貨幣政策操作規(guī)程中具有其他工具不可替代的重要作用,其操作具有緊盯美聯(lián)儲基金利率的特點(diǎn)。基于國際貨幣政策操作規(guī)程發(fā)展趨勢,本文提出我國未來應(yīng)當(dāng)構(gòu)建利率政策主導(dǎo)型的貨幣政策操作規(guī)程。貨幣政策操作規(guī)程轉(zhuǎn)型,需要實(shí)施政府主導(dǎo)型的強(qiáng)制性利率政策制度變遷,盡快放松利率管制。屆時,中央銀行制定提出短期資金利率目標(biāo),以取代存款基準(zhǔn)利率工具,并發(fā)揮該利率目標(biāo)對整個經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的基準(zhǔn)性和引導(dǎo)力。
[Abstract]:The interest rate is an economic variable most money economy concern. Since Adam Smith, economists have been very concerned about the effect of interest rate and interest rate policy in economic operation, Wicksell (1898) explicitly proposed about the interest rate policy of the "three propositions", Keynes will be the core of the interest rate in monetary policy the transmission mechanism of the modern central banks is the interest rate policy as an important monetary policy for macroeconomic regulation frequently. Since the establishment of the people's Bank of China attaches great importance to the important role in the regulation of interest rate policy in macro economy; since 1984 the people's Bank of China independently exercise the functions of the central bank, is the number of movements in interest rates to achieve control stable macroeconomic policies. A country's central bank interest rate policy implementation effect, is the focus of scholars at home and abroad. A long discussion about the interest rate The effects of policies, the theoretical circle has not yet reached a consensus. Here, seems to have had a paradox: the interest rate policy there are disputes in theoretical and practical importance. Then the effect of interest rate policy of China in transition period shown? Should hold the interest rate policy effect from what level to take what is the key? The factors that affect the effect of China's interest rate policy? How to improve the interest rate policy in China? China's interest rate policy change and transformation will be in the future? Obviously, systematic and thorough research on the effect of interest rate policy, to enrich the theoretical research in transition period of China's interest rate policy, to provide valuable theoretical reference for further research and related research at the same time, also provide a theoretical basis for the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of China, and promote the interest rate of China's institutional transition and monetary policy operation rules. Based on the transformation of monetary policy operation tool And with the transmission mechanism of interest rate and interest rate system changes, from the economic angle system (economic subject behavior level, industry level and regional perspective), it discusses systematically the effect of interest rate policy of monetary operation rules and monetary policy analysis. Therefore, this research is as follows: the first chapter mainly defines the connotation and characteristics of interest rate policy, and expounds the research ideas, innovation and shortage of the research. The second chapter focuses on the carding effect of interest rate policy related literature at home and abroad. The third chapter expounds the transition of China's interest rate policy and interest rate transmission mechanism of institutional change theory. The fourth chapter studies the interest rate policy on household savings, consumption, investment, bank credit and the effect of the behavior of economic subjects such as import and export enterprises. In the fifth chapter, from the perspective of industry and regional two level contrast effect of interest rate policy. The sixth chapter from the operation target, The intermediate target and the ultimate goal of the three levels by comparing the rate policy results. In the seventh chapter, using the Walsh model for monetary policy analysis, from the economic conditions and the open economy closed the comparative study of effect of interest rate policy. The eighth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations. This paper attempts to expand the existing research to the top surface, and the main conclusions are as follows: first, that the interest rate policy with monetary policy, intermediate target, transmission mechanism, operation tools, institutional arrangements and other different connotations; pointed out that the interest rate policy effect from the defined level, operation level, the role of the economic level, the system level classification; found from the angle of operation tool of monetary policy to study the effect of interest rate policy has become the mainstream the trend through 1978-1995. Second, 1996-2011 and two time of comparative study, found that the interest rate policy can raise the interest rate policy of institutional change Results. At the same time, according to the industry and the regional difference of the effect of interest rate policy, the central bank should put forward the implementation of industrial differences and regional interest rate policy, interest rate policy to improve the pertinence and validity. Third, this paper examines the practical use of the Central Bank of China in transition period of three of the operating target, the quantity effect and time effect of intermediate target and policy objectives, found that the interest rate policy on the intermediate target, influence the ultimate goal of the effect is good. Fourth, this paper introduces a new model analysis framework of Walsh Keynes's monetary policy based on the study found that the operation of the interest rate policy has a smooth characteristic, in the closed economy to pay more attention to the inflation deviation in the open the economic conditions to pay more attention to the Fed funds rate volatility. Fifth, this study found that the interest rate policy in China's current monetary policy operating procedures in out There is an important role can not be replaced by other tools, with its operating characteristics at the federal funds rate. The trend of development of international monetary policy based on the rules of operation, this paper proposes that China should build a future interest rate policy oriented monetary policy operation rules. The operation of monetary policy rules requires the implementation of mandatory transformation, the interest rate policy of institutional change dominated by the government as soon as possible, to deregulate interest rates. At that time, the central bank made the short-term funds rate target, to replace the benchmark deposit interest rate instruments, and play the benchmark interest rate to the whole economy and guiding force.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.0
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本文編號：1596142