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  本文選題：廣場協(xié)議　切入點：貨幣政策　出處：《浙江大學》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后,日本經(jīng)濟在經(jīng)歷了短暫的恢復期之后,便一直保持了高速增長,到20世紀80年代初期,經(jīng)濟實力的不斷上升和貿(mào)易順差的迅速擴張使得日本一躍成為世界第二大貿(mào)易國和最大的貿(mào)易順差國。同期美國貿(mào)易赤字和財政赤字急劇積累,并且首次從債權(quán)國轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閭鶆?wù)國,而日本則成為美國貿(mào)易逆差的最大來源國和最大債權(quán)國,導致美國國內(nèi)擔憂情緒和貿(mào)易保護主義的滋長。在此背景下,西方五國集團在紐約廣場飯店召開了財長和中央銀行行長會議,會上達成了經(jīng)濟調(diào)整的一系列政策,包括各國央行行長關(guān)于各國貨幣對美元有序升值的承諾,史稱“廣場協(xié)議”。“廣場協(xié)議”后,各國對外匯市場進行了干預,其中尤其以日本政府對外匯市場的干預程度最大,短短三個月中日元升值了20%。到1987年底,日元兌美元升值幅度達到100%。日元升值幅度超出了日本的預期和承受范圍,于是日本政府多次下調(diào)貼現(xiàn)率并將2.5%超低貼現(xiàn)率維持了27個月,以刺激經(jīng)濟,遏制日元升值。而事實上,日本GDP在1986年底已恢復增長,長時期的超寬松貨幣政策導致日本國內(nèi)流動性過剩,在實體經(jīng)濟基本成熟的情況下,資金流入資本市場,帶來了股價和房地產(chǎn)價格的暴漲,促成了泡沫經(jīng)濟的生成和膨脹。泡沫經(jīng)濟的急劇刺破又對日本經(jīng)濟造成巨大打擊,使其陷入衰退泥潭,至今仍無法恢復當初的輝煌。當前的中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況與80年代的日本有著極大的相似之處,經(jīng)濟高速發(fā)展和貿(mào)易順差持續(xù)擴大這兩大因素帶來了本幣升值的國內(nèi)外壓力,隨之而來的是貨幣政策與匯率政策的矛盾。通過本文的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)日本貨幣政策操作的幾次失誤是導致泡沫經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生的重要因素,同時也為我國貨幣政策操作帶來了一系列的啟示,其中最重要的是要維護貨幣政策的獨立性。隨著中國同其他國家經(jīng)濟交往的深入,享受國際分工和合作的成果的同時,與這些國家經(jīng)濟利益的沖突也必然增多。為實現(xiàn)自身利益目標,這些國家可能會對中國的國內(nèi)政策施加壓力,在這種情況下,我國不能讓貨幣政策受制于外部壓力或是國際協(xié)調(diào),應(yīng)堅定立場明確態(tài)度,堅決維護貨幣政策的獨立性。
[Abstract]:After World War II, after a brief recovery period, Japan's economy kept growing at a high speed until the beginning of 1980s. The rising economic power and the rapid expansion of the trade surplus have made Japan the world's second largest trading nation and the world's largest trade surplus. During the same period, the United States' trade and fiscal deficits have accumulated sharply. And for the first time, from a creditor to a debtor, Japan became the largest source and creditor of the United States' trade deficit, leading to concerns in the United States and the growth of protectionism. At a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors at the Plaza Hotel in New York, the Group of five of the Western countries reached a series of policies for economic adjustment, including central bank governors' commitment to orderly appreciation of their currencies against the US dollar. History has called the "Plaza Agreement." after the "Plaza Agreement," various countries intervened in the foreign exchange market, especially the Japanese government's intervention in the foreign exchange market, with the yen rising by 20 percent in just three months. By end of 1987, The yen rose more than 100 yuan against the dollar. The appreciation of the yen exceeded Japan's expectations and range, so the Japanese government cut the discount rate several times and maintained the 2.5% ultra-low discount rate for 27 months to stimulate the economy. In fact, Japan's GDP resumed growth in end of 1986, with a long period of ultra-loose monetary policy leading to excess domestic liquidity and capital markets as the real economy matured. The boom in stock prices and real estate prices contributed to the creation and expansion of the bubble economy, which, in turn, hit the Japanese economy hard, plunging it into recession. The current situation of China's economic development is very similar to that of Japan in 80s. The rapid development of the economy and the continued expansion of the trade surplus have brought about domestic and foreign pressure on the appreciation of the local currency. The following is the contradiction between monetary policy and exchange rate policy. Through the analysis of this paper, it is found that several mistakes in the operation of Japanese monetary policy are the important factors leading to the bubble economy. At the same time, it has also brought a series of revelations to China's monetary policy operation, the most important of which is to safeguard the independence of monetary policy. With the deepening of economic exchanges between China and other countries, China enjoys the fruits of international division of labor and cooperation. Conflicts with the economic interests of these countries are also bound to increase. In order to achieve their own interests, these countries may exert pressure on China's domestic policies, in which case, China should not let monetary policy be subject to external pressure or international coordination, but should stand firm and stand clear and firmly safeguard the independence of monetary policy.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F823.13;F822.0

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