本文關(guān)鍵詞： 互保 順周期 門限模型 風險警示　出處：《上海金融》2013年12期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)驗表明,作為解決小微企業(yè)融資過程中缺乏抵押品問題的有效方式,信用擔保貸款(互保)融資存在明顯的順周期效應,即在經(jīng)濟上行周期,互保主要發(fā)揮風險消釋的正面作用;當經(jīng)濟下行至一定程度時,互保主要發(fā)揮風險傳染的負面作用,這與引發(fā)金融危機的次貸類金融衍生品有較大的相似性。本文通過建立門限回歸模型,對企業(yè)互保融資順周期效應的存在性予以了證實;從GDP增長率、工業(yè)用電率增長率、消費增長率三方面提出了互保正面、負面作用相互轉(zhuǎn)換的門限值;同時利用門限值分析建立了用于衡量實際經(jīng)濟發(fā)展情況的風險預警體系。最后提出了針對性較強的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Experience has shown that as an effective way to solve the problem of lack of collateral in the financing process of small and micro enterprises, credit guaranteed loan (mutual insurance) financing has obvious procyclical effect, that is, in the upward cycle of economy, Mutual insurance mainly plays a positive role in risk elimination and interpretation. When the economy is down to a certain extent, mutual insurance mainly plays a negative role in risk contagion. This is similar to the sub-prime financial derivatives that caused the financial crisis. The existence of procyclical effect of mutual insurance financing is confirmed by establishing threshold regression model, which is based on the GDP growth rate, industrial power rate growth rate, industrial power consumption rate growth rate, industrial power consumption growth rate, industrial electricity consumption growth rate, and industrial power consumption growth rate. In the three aspects of consumption growth rate, the threshold value of positive and negative effects is put forward, and the risk early warning system to measure the actual economic development is established by using threshold value analysis. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward.
【作者單位】： 中國人民銀行臺州市中心支行;
【分類號】：F830.5

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條

1 楊俊;劉s，

本文編號：1547093