本文關(guān)鍵詞： 歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī) 中歐貿(mào)易 服裝貿(mào)易 機(jī)械貿(mào)易　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：歐元區(qū)是我國對(duì)外貿(mào)易的重要伙伴國,中歐(元區(qū))貿(mào)易對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。然而自2009年12月爆發(fā)的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)使得歐元區(qū)各國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、失業(yè)率上升,中歐貿(mào)易摩擦不斷加劇,中歐貿(mào)易面臨較大的挑戰(zhàn)。 本文通過分析中國與歐元區(qū)貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),選取了服裝及衣著附件和通用工業(yè)機(jī)械設(shè)備及零件行業(yè),采用2009年第四季度至2011年第四季度的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)中國與歐元區(qū)貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。研究表明： 第一,歐元區(qū)各國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩是影響中歐(元區(qū))貿(mào)易的最主要的因素,歐元區(qū)各國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值每下降1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),將引起中國對(duì)歐元區(qū)機(jī)械設(shè)備的出口總額下降3.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn),進(jìn)口總額下降6.08個(gè)百分點(diǎn),而引起的中國對(duì)歐元區(qū)服裝出口總額的下降幅度為2.85個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。 第二,相對(duì)于收入渠道,歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)通過匯率渠道對(duì)中歐(元區(qū))貿(mào)易的影響較小,人民幣對(duì)歐元匯率每降低1%,在短期內(nèi)將會(huì)增加以歐元計(jì)價(jià)的我國對(duì)歐元區(qū)各國的服裝出口貿(mào)易額的1.01%,而其對(duì)中歐(元區(qū))機(jī)械設(shè)備貿(mào)易的影響不顯著。 第三,歐元區(qū)各國股票價(jià)格指數(shù)的變動(dòng)對(duì)中國與歐元區(qū)各國出口貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生顯著影響,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明歐元區(qū)各國股票指數(shù)每降低1%,將會(huì)引起我國對(duì)歐(元區(qū))服裝出口貿(mào)易總額下降0.34%；我國對(duì)歐(元區(qū))機(jī)械設(shè)備出口貿(mào)易總額下降0.49%。
[Abstract]:The euro zone is an important partner of China's foreign trade, and trade between China and Europe is vital to China's economic development. However, since the European sovereign debt crisis broke out in December 2009, the European sovereign debt crisis has led to a recession and an increase in unemployment across the euro zone. Trade frictions between China and the EU are intensifying, and China-EU trade is facing greater challenges. Based on the analysis of the product structure of trade between China and the euro area, this paper selects clothing and clothing accessories, general industrial machinery and equipment and parts industry, and adopts the relevant data from in the fourth quarter of 2009 to in the fourth quarter of 2011. An empirical study on the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the trade between China and the euro zone has been carried out. The results show that:. First, the slowdown in economic growth in the euro zone countries is the most important factor affecting trade between China and the EU (yuan region). For every 1 percentage point of decline in the gross domestic product of the countries in the euro zone, It will cause China's total exports of machinery and equipment to the euro zone to fall by 3.8 percentage points and imports by 6.08 percentage points, while China's total exports of clothing to the euro zone will fall by 2.85 percentage points. Second, compared to the income channel, the European sovereign debt crisis has a relatively small impact on trade between China and Europe through the exchange rate channel. A drop of one yuan against the euro rate in the short term will increase the volume of China's clothing export trade in euros to the euro zone countries, and its impact on the trade in machinery and equipment between China and Europe is not significant. Third, the changes in the stock price indices of the euro zone countries have had a significant impact on China's export trade with the euro zone countries. The empirical results show that the decrease of the stock index of each country in the euro zone will cause the total amount of China's clothing export to Europe (Yuan) to drop by 0.34, and the total export of machinery and equipment to Europe by 0.49.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F815;F825

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