本文關(guān)鍵詞： 個(gè)人住房貸款 市場(chǎng)機(jī)制 政策調(diào)整 影響效應(yīng)　出處：《西南石油大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：金融政策的調(diào)控對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響在許多國(guó)家的實(shí)踐中已經(jīng)得到證實(shí),在我國(guó)也逐步受到重視并成為調(diào)節(jié)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展的重要手段。金融政策包含的范圍十分廣泛,其中的個(gè)人住房貸款政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響尤其重大。自上世紀(jì)90年代國(guó)內(nèi)開始推行個(gè)人住房貸款業(yè)務(wù)之初,我國(guó)個(gè)人住房貸款政策就開始影響業(yè)務(wù)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。經(jīng)過幾十年的調(diào)整,個(gè)人住房貸款政策也逐步完善。自2010年10月本輪的個(gè)人住房貸款政策調(diào)整開始正式實(shí)施,市場(chǎng)對(duì)這次的政策調(diào)整寄予了很高的期望。 目前關(guān)于個(gè)人住房貸款與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間關(guān)系的研究較多,但大部分是關(guān)于兩者的定性研究,定量分析的文章較少。本文則主要采取定量研究與定性分析相結(jié)合的方法,通過數(shù)學(xué)模型和邏輯推理得出文章結(jié)論。文章先通過建立數(shù)學(xué)模型定量研究個(gè)人住房貸款額與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)要素的關(guān)系,再深入探討個(gè)人住房貸款政策調(diào)整對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)核心要素(供求、價(jià)格、成交量)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)參與主體(購(gòu)房者、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè))的影響,最后提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。文章主要選取1998—2011年我國(guó)個(gè)人住房貸款額度與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),利用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的協(xié)整分析和Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)分析個(gè)人住房貸款額度與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)因素的關(guān)系。在定量的基礎(chǔ)上深入分析個(gè)人住房貸款政策調(diào)整對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響效應(yīng)。主要從四個(gè)方面論述,即政策調(diào)整對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響、對(duì)房地產(chǎn)供求機(jī)制的影響、對(duì)房地產(chǎn)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)制的影響、對(duì)房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)機(jī)制的影響,得出了個(gè)人住房貸款政策調(diào)整在平抑房?jī)r(jià)、土地供應(yīng)、引導(dǎo)房企、資金投入等方面對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)都有顯著影響的結(jié)論。最后提出促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)健康平穩(wěn)發(fā)展的政策建議,如深化個(gè)人住房貸款政策調(diào)控,建立健全房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控的長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制,使房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)逐步走向規(guī)范化、制度化,共建和諧穩(wěn)定的房地產(chǎn)信貸市場(chǎng)等。
[Abstract]:The influence of financial policy on the development of real estate industry has been proved in the practice of many countries. In our country, it has been paid more and more attention and become an important means to regulate the healthy development of real estate industry. The impact of the personal housing loan policy on the real estate industry is particularly significant. Since the beginning of the implementation of the personal housing loan business in China in -10s, The personal housing loan policy of our country has begun to affect the development of business and real estate industry. After decades of adjustment, the personal housing loan policy has been gradually improved. Since October 2010, the adjustment of personal housing loan policy has been formally implemented. The market has high expectations for this policy adjustment. At present, there are many researches on the relationship between personal housing loan and real estate, but most of them are qualitative research, but there are few articles on quantitative analysis. This paper mainly adopts the method of combining quantitative research with qualitative analysis. The conclusion is drawn by mathematical model and logical reasoning. Firstly, the relationship between the amount of personal housing loan and the relevant elements of real estate is quantitatively studied by establishing a mathematical model. Furthermore, the influence of the adjustment of personal housing loan policy on the core elements of the real estate market (supply and demand, price, turnover) and the participants in the real estate market (buyers, real estate developers) is discussed. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. This paper mainly selects the personal housing loan quota and the real estate related economic indicators from 1998 to 2011. Using the co-integration analysis and Granger causality test in econometrics to analyze the relationship between the amount of personal housing loan and the related factors of real estate. On the basis of quantitative analysis, the adjustment of personal housing loan policy to real estate in China is deeply analyzed. The effect of industry. Mainly discussed from four aspects, That is, the impact of policy adjustment on real estate prices, on the real estate supply and demand mechanism, on the real estate competition mechanism, on the real estate risk mechanism, it is concluded that the adjustment of personal housing loan policy is to stabilize housing prices, land supply. The conclusion that guiding housing enterprises and capital investment has a significant impact on the real estate industry. Finally, it puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry, such as deepening the regulation and control of personal housing loan policy. To establish and perfect the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation and control, to make the real estate market move towards standardization and institutionalization, and to build a harmonious and stable real estate credit market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F293.3;F832.4

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