本文關(guān)鍵詞： 貨幣政策 商品房價格 存款準(zhǔn)備金率 貨幣需求　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是我國當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)市場的調(diào)控是一個長期的不斷發(fā)展變化的過程，在這個動態(tài)的過程中，其對整個房地產(chǎn)的各個方面都將產(chǎn)生不同程度的影響，尤其對房價的影響表現(xiàn)比較突出，也就是說貨幣政策通過各種調(diào)控手段實現(xiàn)的最終目標(biāo)就是保持經(jīng)濟增長，穩(wěn)定房價。因此貨幣政策對商品房價格產(chǎn)生的影響，具有非常重要的研究價值。近十年隨著我國房地產(chǎn)投資過熱，針對房地產(chǎn)貸款增長過快及商品房價格不斷攀升等現(xiàn)實情況，央行采取不斷提高存款準(zhǔn)備率、實行差額準(zhǔn)備金率等一系列從緊的貨幣調(diào)控政策。目前，商品房成交量得到一定抑制，價格漲幅雖有所回落，但仍處于高位運行態(tài)勢。盡管政府出臺了各種不同的貨幣政策以及針對房地產(chǎn)市場的各種調(diào)控政策，但并沒有達(dá)到預(yù)期的調(diào)控效果，可見我國目前緊要的任務(wù)之一是有效調(diào)控商品房價格。如何提高貨幣政策對房價調(diào)控的效果？ 本文由五個章節(jié)組成。第一章首先介紹了選題的背景，指出貨幣政策對房價調(diào)控的效果。接下來依次介紹了論文的研究目的、意義、研究思路和研究方法，對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行評述； 第二章針對貨幣政策主要概念和相關(guān)理論、貨幣政策的調(diào)控路徑及貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)價格的調(diào)控機理等方面進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)闡述； 第三章對近十年北京市房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資、開發(fā)建設(shè)及商品房銷售價格現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計分析； 第四章通過近十年我國貨幣政策導(dǎo)向、關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)計劃值與實際執(zhí)行情況的對比分析，描述了我國不同時期貨幣政策變化對北京市商品房量價變化的影響效果，運用統(tǒng)計分析方法論證北京市房地產(chǎn)市場量價水平變化與貨幣政策的周期性變化的相互關(guān)系。通過構(gòu)建多元線性回歸方程模型，實證分析了存款準(zhǔn)備金率和貸款利率對房屋銷售價格指數(shù)和房屋銷售面積的影響效果。 第五章通過以上定性、定量分析，，得出結(jié)論：貨幣政策對北京市商品房量價的影響具有滯后性；采用貨幣政策的貸款利率調(diào)控商品房銷量和價格，效果比較顯著；反之，采用存款準(zhǔn)備金率調(diào)控，則效果并不顯著。 綜合以上分析，在貨幣政策調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場的過程中，注重政策的系統(tǒng)性、針對性和統(tǒng)一性，建立預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，動態(tài)調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場，以提高貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)市場的調(diào)控效果。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our country's current economic development. The regulation of monetary policy on the real estate market is a long-term process of continuous development and change. In this dynamic process, It will have different effects on all aspects of real estate, especially on housing prices. That is to say, the ultimate goal of monetary policy through various means of regulation and control is to maintain economic growth. Therefore, the impact of monetary policy on the prices of commercial housing is of great value. In the past decade, with the overheating of real estate investment in China, the real estate loans have increased too fast and the prices of commercial housing have been rising. The central bank has adopted a series of tight monetary control policies, such as continuously increasing the deposit reserve rate and implementing a series of tight monetary control policies such as the difference reserve ratio. At present, the transaction volume of commercial housing has been restrained to a certain extent, but the price increase has slowed down. Although the government has introduced various monetary policies and various regulation policies aimed at the real estate market, it has not achieved the desired regulatory effect. It can be seen that Ren Wuzhi is one of the most important issues in China at present. How to improve the effect of monetary policy on housing price control? This paper is composed of five chapters. The first chapter introduces the background of the topic, and points out the effect of monetary policy on housing price regulation. Then, it introduces the research purpose, significance, research ideas and research methods. The related research literatures at home and abroad are reviewed. In the second chapter, the main concepts and related theories of monetary policy, the control path of monetary policy and the mechanism of monetary policy affecting real estate prices are elaborated in detail. The third chapter makes a statistical analysis on the current situation of real estate development investment, development and construction and the sale price of commercial housing in Beijing in the past ten years. Chapter 4th, through the comparative analysis of the monetary policy orientation, the plan value of the key indicators and the actual implementation, describes the effect of the monetary policy change on the price change of commercial housing in Beijing in different periods. The relationship between the change of volume and price level of Beijing real estate market and the periodic change of monetary policy is demonstrated by means of statistical analysis, and the multivariate linear regression equation model is constructed. The effect of deposit reserve ratio and loan interest rate on housing sales price index and housing sales area is analyzed empirically. Chapter 5th, through the above qualitative and quantitative analysis, draws a conclusion that the influence of monetary policy on the volume and price of commercial housing in Beijing is lagging; the effect of adopting the loan interest rate of monetary policy to regulate the sales volume and price of commercial housing is remarkable; conversely, Use deposit reserve ratio control, the effect is not significant. Synthesizing the above analysis, in the process of monetary policy regulating the real estate market, we should pay attention to the systematization, pertinence and unity of the policy, establish an early warning system, and dynamically regulate the real estate market. In order to improve the monetary policy on the real estate market regulation and control effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F293.3;F822.0

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