本文關(guān)鍵詞： 貨幣中性 貨幣非中性 VAR 模型 VEC　出處：《廣東商學(xué)院》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：1997年亞洲金融危機以來，伴隨著美國金融服務(wù)現(xiàn)代化法案的出臺，國際金融市場迎來了空前的大發(fā)展，金融工具的創(chuàng)新時國際資金的趨利特征更為明顯，然而世界經(jīng)濟一體化不僅為中國等新興國家?guī)砹藱C遇，與此同時也極大沖擊了本國的金融體系。自從加入了世界貿(mào)易組織，我國正面臨著的日趨復(fù)雜的國際金融市場與經(jīng)濟形勢變革的雙重考驗�；仡櫧鼇砟晡覈泿耪卟僮鞯臍v史，中國人民銀行始終將貨幣政策目標固定為高增長、低通脹，，但卻收效甚微。在2007年世界金融危機仍舊蔓延的國際背景下，央行貨幣政策的制定也變得越來越艱難。 歸根結(jié)底，貨幣是否中性是實施貨幣政策的前提和關(guān)鍵所在。更進一步說，我國貨幣的中性問題直接涉及到貨幣政策有效性以及如何制定貨幣政策的問題，因此，有必要對我國的貨幣中性問題進行深入的研究。本文正是在這樣的背景下，以我國的貨幣供應(yīng)量為研究對象，采用理論與實證相結(jié)合的方法，研究我國的貨幣中性問題。首先對貨幣中性問題進行理論回顧，將經(jīng)典的貨幣中性與非中性理論進行闡述；其次，將已有的關(guān)于貨幣中性問題的理論進行歸納和比較；然后，根據(jù)我國貨幣政策的實際情況進行理論和實證研究，并根據(jù)實證分析的結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 具體而言，本文分為五章。 第一章，導(dǎo)論部分，主要闡明寫作本文的背景、相關(guān)文獻以及寫作思路、創(chuàng)新之處。 第二章介紹了貨幣中性與非中性理論，主要包括貨幣中性論、貨幣非中性論以及貨幣中性與非中性共生論。 第三章分析了中國的貨幣中性問題，提出了本文對于中國貨幣性質(zhì)的見解并進行了詳盡的解釋，得出我國貨幣在短期是非中性的，而在長期是中性的。 第四章，主要是對運用相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù),運用單位根檢驗、VAR模型、協(xié)整檢驗、VEC模型格蘭杰因果檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析、方差分解和等計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)方法對于我國貨幣是否中性進行實證研究。 第五章,據(jù)實證研究的結(jié)果來進行分析，并提出相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, with the introduction of the American Financial Services Modernization Act, the international financial market has ushered in an unprecedented development, the innovation of financial instruments when the characteristics of international funds more obvious. However, the integration of the world economy has not only brought opportunities to China and other emerging countries, but also greatly impacted the financial system of China since its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Our country is facing the double test of the increasingly complex international financial market and the change of the economic situation. Looking back on the history of monetary policy operation in China in recent years, the people's Bank of China has always fixed the monetary policy target as high growth. Inflation is low, but little has been achieved. In 2007, as the world financial crisis continued to spread, central bank monetary policy formulation became increasingly difficult. In the final analysis, whether the currency is neutral is the premise and key to implement monetary policy. Furthermore, the neutral problem of monetary in our country is directly related to the effectiveness of monetary policy and how to formulate monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a deep study on the monetary neutrality in China. This paper takes the money supply of our country as the research object under this background, and adopts the method of combining theory and practice. This paper studies the monetary neutrality in China. Firstly, it reviews the theory of monetary neutrality, and expounds the classical monetary neutral and non-neutral theories. Secondly, the existing theories on monetary neutrality are summarized and compared. Then, according to the actual situation of China's monetary policy, the theoretical and empirical studies are carried out, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward according to the results of the empirical analysis. Specifically, this paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter, introduction, mainly explains the background, relevant literature, writing ideas and innovations. The second chapter introduces the theory of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, including monetary neutrality, monetary non-neutrality and monetary neutrality and non-neutral symbiosis. The third chapter analyzes the monetary neutrality in China, puts forward the views of the nature of Chinese currency in this paper and gives a detailed explanation. It is concluded that Chinese currency is neutral in the short term and neutral in the long run. In Chapter 4th, we mainly use the relevant data, using the unit root test / VAR model, cointegration test / Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis. Variance decomposition and equivalent econometrics are used to study whether the currency is neutral in China. Chapter 5th, according to the results of empirical research to analyze, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東商學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822;F224

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