本文關(guān)鍵詞：關(guān)于中國(guó)證券分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)“樂(lè)觀傾向”實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)及成因分析　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：證券分析師作為資本市場(chǎng)中的專業(yè)分析人員,他們無(wú)疑是一個(gè)特殊群體。他們搜集和分析上市公司的營(yíng)業(yè)和財(cái)務(wù)的數(shù)據(jù),有優(yōu)于一般投資者的信息收集途徑和專業(yè)分析能力；他們向資本市場(chǎng)參與者和部分非參與者,提供反映證券和公司投資價(jià)值的信息,降低證券市場(chǎng)內(nèi)股票的價(jià)格偏離程度。他們促進(jìn)了市場(chǎng)的有效性運(yùn)行,他們的存在使得中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)更加接近于一個(gè)有效的資本市場(chǎng),并且有利于完善資本市場(chǎng)和督促公司完善公司治理結(jié)構(gòu),也有利于監(jiān)管部門加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管。而證券分析報(bào)告作為分析師傳遞信息最重要的工具和載體,他們的質(zhì)量對(duì)穩(wěn)定證券市場(chǎng)的作用無(wú)可替代。 伴隨著學(xué)術(shù)界越來(lái)越關(guān)注證券分析師的分析報(bào)告,很多學(xué)者提出來(lái)我國(guó)分析師的盈余預(yù)測(cè)存在“樂(lè)觀傾向”的假說(shuō)和猜想,如果這種傾向存在的話,那么就必要引起我們的關(guān)注。由于分析師的樂(lè)觀傾向非常容易在市場(chǎng)中形成一種正的反饋推動(dòng)機(jī)制,從而某種程度上推高市場(chǎng)整體價(jià)格水平,形成股市的非理性泡沫。例如,Miller(2002)指出,美國(guó)股市20世紀(jì)末的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫部分原因就歸咎于分析師的報(bào)告傾向的引導(dǎo)和推動(dòng)。在我國(guó),證券市場(chǎng)剛剛建立尚未成熟,非理性的股民更容易采取跟風(fēng)行為,也就是所謂“羊群效應(yīng)”,帶有樂(lè)觀傾向的證券分析師報(bào)告將對(duì)我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)造成比美國(guó)更加嚴(yán)重的影響和后果。 但是目前,國(guó)內(nèi)幾乎所有關(guān)于分析報(bào)告“樂(lè)觀傾向”的研究和分析都局限在描述層面,而且樣本數(shù)量不足,處在股市的上升通道的假說(shuō)統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn),加之不成熟市場(chǎng)的信息披露質(zhì)量等問(wèn)題,故而研究結(jié)果不足以讓人完全信服,因此對(duì)目前學(xué)者提出的主要假說(shuō)進(jìn)行實(shí)證性檢驗(yàn)非常必要,確定這種國(guó)外樂(lè)觀傾向假說(shuō)是否真的存在于中國(guó)股市,并尋找引起樂(lè)觀傾向的主要因素,并進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。 本文通過(guò)對(duì)2008-2011年四年的分析師預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的檢驗(yàn),得出盡管是在股市的非上升通道做的檢驗(yàn),樂(lè)觀傾向確實(shí)存在。進(jìn)而分析了分析師群體樂(lè)觀傾向的身份原因,和基于行為金融理論的簡(jiǎn)單原因探討。證券分析師是證券行業(yè)的“信息塔”和信息中樞,因?yàn)樽C券市場(chǎng)原有的不確定性的存在,證券分析師在工作時(shí)會(huì)遇到一些難以處理的專業(yè)問(wèn)題問(wèn)題和難以相處的客戶。此時(shí)表現(xiàn)的就是證券分析師的專業(yè)素質(zhì)和職業(yè)素養(yǎng)問(wèn)題和自我認(rèn)識(shí)。市場(chǎng)對(duì)證券分析師的要求是相對(duì)較高的,證券分析師的行為也對(duì)市場(chǎng)會(huì)造成一定的積極或者消極的影響。分析師客觀信息接收的樂(lè)觀存在,分析師主觀判斷權(quán)重的高存在狀態(tài),以及利益驅(qū)使的不真實(shí)意圖判斷,是出現(xiàn)樂(lè)觀傾向的主要原因。 也因而給監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),投資者,證券分析師評(píng)價(jià)機(jī)構(gòu),證券公司等市場(chǎng)參與者和監(jiān)管者,提供了加強(qiáng)管理和增加投資收益的可能性。一方面可以為投資者提供參考的依據(jù),促使投資者對(duì)分析師所提供信息的判斷和利用,使投資者在投資決策過(guò)程中對(duì)證券分析師的預(yù)測(cè)保持足夠的警惕和謹(jǐn)慎,從而在一定程度上緩解可能存在的泡沫和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；更為重要的是,他可以為我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和分析師隊(duì)伍的行業(yè)規(guī)范和行為提供具體的政策意見(jiàn)。比如,對(duì)這些影響因素盡早隔離,制定嚴(yán)格行業(yè)規(guī)范,向美國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)師的獨(dú)立性一樣,保持分析師的主體地位,保護(hù)分析師的獨(dú)立性。盈余預(yù)測(cè),作為分析報(bào)告的主要內(nèi)容之一,作為一個(gè)容易量化的數(shù)量指標(biāo),可以成為是我們檢驗(yàn)分析報(bào)告的重要工具。 因此可以說(shuō),對(duì)近年我國(guó)證券分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)“樂(lè)觀傾向”及其影響因素的實(shí)證分析無(wú)論從學(xué)術(shù)角度還是應(yīng)用角度都有比較重要而深遠(yuǎn)的意義。
[Abstract]:Securities analysts as professional analysts in the capital market, they undoubtedly are a special group. They collect and analyze the listed company's operating and financial data, information collected way better than retail investors and professional analysis; to capital market participants and non participants, reflecting the value of securities and investment information, reduce the stock in the stock market price level of deviation. They promote the effectiveness of operation of the market, they are making China capital market closer to an effective capital market, and improve the capital market and to urge the company to improve the corporate governance structure, but also conducive to the supervision departments to strengthen supervision of securities analysis report. As an analyst to transmit information of the most important tool and carrier, the irreplaceable role of their quality on the stability of the securities market.
Along with the academic community pays more and more attention to the analysis of securities analysts, many scholars have proposed to our analysts' earnings forecasts exist optimistic tendency "hypothesis and conjecture, if this tendency exists, it is necessary to cause our attention. Because analysts optimistic tendency is very easy in the market to form a positive promote the feedback mechanism, which to some extent the market higher overall price level, the irrational bubble in the stock market. For example, Miller (2002) pointed out that the U.S. stock market in twentieth Century the Internet bubble of the late part of the reason is due to the tendency of analysts' reports to guide and promote. In China, the stock market just is not yet mature, non rational investors are more likely to adopt the herd behavior, the so-called" herding ", with optimistic tendencies securities analyst report on China's securities market caused more than America Serious effects and consequences.
But at present, the research and Analysis on almost all domestic research report optimistic tendency "are limited in the descriptive level and insufficient number of samples, the hypothesis of statistical tests in the stock market's rising channel, coupled with immature market information disclosure quality, so the research results should not be completely convincing, so empirical to test the main hypothesis at present scholars is very necessary to determine the foreign optimism hypothesis are really exist in the China stock market, and find out the main factors causing the optimistic tendency, and test.
This paper through the forecast data to test 2008-2011 four years that analysts, despite testing non increase in the stock market channel do, optimistic tendencies do exist. And then analyzes the reasons analysts optimistic about the tendency of group identity, and the simple reason based on behavioral finance theory study. Securities analyst is the securities industry's "information tower" and the information center, because the stock market uncertainty of the original securities analyst will encounter some difficult to deal with professional issues and difficult to get along with customers at work. The performance of securities analyst's professional quality and occupation accomplishment and self-awareness. The market demand for securities analysts is relatively high, securities the behavior of market analysts also cause some positive or negative impact. There are objective optimistic analysts received information, analysts subjective The main reason for the optimistic tendency is to judge the high existence state of the weight and the judgment of the untrue intention of the interest driven.
Thus to regulators, investors, securities analysts, rating agencies, securities companies and other market participants and regulators, provides the possibility to strengthen management and increase the investment income. On the one hand can provide reference for investors, prompting investors to analysts for the judgment and use of information, so that investors in the investment decision-making process to forecast security analysts maintain adequate vigilance and caution, so as to reduce the risk and possible bubble to a certain extent; more importantly, he can for China's securities market regulators and analysts team of industry norms and behavior to provide specific policy advice. For example, the impact of these factors as soon as possible to make strict isolation. The industry standard, as to the independence of the CPA, maintain the dominant position of the analyst, the protection of the independence of analysts. As earnings forecast, analysis One of the main contents of the report, as an easy quantified quantitative indicator, can be an important tool for our analysis of analysis reports.
Therefore, it can be said that the empirical analysis of the "optimism tendency" and its influencing factors of China's securities analysts' earnings forecasts in recent years is of great importance both from an academic point of view and from an applied perspective.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5;F224

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