本文關(guān)鍵詞：湖北FDI、國(guó)際貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)性研究　出處：《中南民族大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 湖北 外商直接投資 國(guó)際貿(mào)易 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)

【摘要】：縱觀全國(guó)，改革開(kāi)放三十年來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)，而貿(mào)易對(duì)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)起到重要作用。與此同時(shí)，外國(guó)直接投資一直穩(wěn)居世界第二，大量的外國(guó)直接投資有效緩解了中國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展初期資本和技術(shù)的匱乏。 自上個(gè)世紀(jì)八十年代以來(lái)，特別是2000年以后，湖北省的經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了較快的發(fā)展，國(guó)際貿(mào)易和外國(guó)直接投資水平也有了長(zhǎng)足的進(jìn)步。1981-2010年湖北生產(chǎn)總值年均增幅高達(dá)23.82%，2011年達(dá)到19594.19億元，與2010年的15967.61億元相比增幅13.8%。在三大產(chǎn)業(yè)中增長(zhǎng)最快的是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)，增幅17.9%，產(chǎn)值達(dá)9818.76億元。進(jìn)出口總額335.19億元，增幅29.1%，其中出口195.35億元，進(jìn)口139.84億元，增幅分別為35.3%和21.5%。實(shí)際外商直接投資46.5億元，增幅14.9%。 不可否認(rèn)，貿(mào)易和外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，尤其是東部沿海地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)起到重要作用。但是，湖北省國(guó)際貿(mào)易、外國(guó)直接投資的高速增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間是否存在必然的聯(lián)系，國(guó)際貿(mào)易和外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有怎樣的影響？本文將就這些問(wèn)題展開(kāi)探討，并利用湖北省近三十年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)分析湖北省近些年來(lái)國(guó)際貿(mào)易、外商直接投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，然后基于VAR模型的動(dòng)態(tài)實(shí)證分析方法分析湖北FDI、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的相關(guān)性。 文章首先總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于國(guó)際貿(mào)易和外國(guó)直接投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系和國(guó)際貿(mào)易、外國(guó)直接投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)相關(guān)性的研究成果，并對(duì)關(guān)于國(guó)際貿(mào)易、外國(guó)直接投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的理論進(jìn)行了總結(jié)分析，在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了近年來(lái)湖北省國(guó)際貿(mào)易、外國(guó)直接投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展情況和趨勢(shì)，并運(yùn)用VAR模型的動(dòng)態(tài)實(shí)證分析方法，通過(guò)進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、建立廣義脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解模型，得出了國(guó)際貿(mào)易是湖北經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的原因，而外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)并不十分顯著的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Throughout the country, during the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown rapidly, while trade has played an important role in China's economic growth. At the same time, foreign direct investment (FDI) has consistently ranked second in the world. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has effectively alleviated China's lack of capital and technology in the early stages of its economic development. Since -20s, especially after 2000, the economy of Hubei Province has been developing rapidly. The level of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) has also made great progress. The average annual growth rate of Hubei's GDP reached 23.82 yuan in 1981-2010, reaching one tillion nine hundred and fifty-nine billion four hundred and eighteen million nine hundred and ninety-nine thousand and nine hundred and ninety-nine yuan in 2011. In 2010, compared with one tillion five hundred and ninety-six billion seven hundred and sixty-one million yuan, the growth rate was 13.8%. Among the three major industries, the second industry had the fastest growth, with an increase of 17.9%. The output value reached nine hundred and eighty-one billion eight hundred and seventy-six million yuan. The total import and export value was thirty-three billion five hundred and nineteen million yuan, an increase of 29.1 yuan, of which nineteen billion five hundred and thirty-five million yuan was exported and thirteen billion nine hundred and eighty-four million yuan was imported. The real foreign direct investment was 4.65 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9 yuan. There is no denying that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) play an important role in the rapid growth of China's economy, especially in the eastern coastal areas. However, international trade in Hubei Province. Is there an inevitable link between the rapid growth of foreign direct investment and economic growth, and how does international trade and foreign direct investment affect economic growth? This paper will discuss these problems and analyze the development trend of international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth of Hubei Province in recent years by using the relevant data of Hubei Province in the past 30 years. Then the dynamic empirical analysis method based on VAR model is used to analyze the correlation between import and export trade and economic growth. This paper first summarizes the research results of the relationship between international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth and the correlation between foreign direct investment and economic growth. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the theories of international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth, this paper analyzes the development and trend of international trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Hubei Province in recent years. Using the dynamic empirical analysis method of VAR model, through Granger causality test, the generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition model are established, and international trade is the reason of Hubei economic growth. The contribution of FDI to economic growth is not very significant.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.7;F127;F224

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