本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于生命周期理論的居民家庭金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)影響因素研究　出處：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 生命周期 金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu) 影響因素 Tobit模型

【摘要】：近年來,我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)總量一直以10%以上的增長率持續(xù)增長,國民收入的分配不斷地向居民部門傾斜,居民金融資產(chǎn)迅速增長。同時,老齡化程度不斷加重以及出生率不斷下降使得我國人口結(jié)構(gòu)也在發(fā)生著顯著的變化,人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)社會產(chǎn)生了重要影響。本文基于生命周期理論,研究居民家庭生命周期變化對居民金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,以期為應(yīng)對人口老齡化以及優(yōu)化居民金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)提供一些借鑒。 經(jīng)典的生命周期假說和生命周期投資理論都證明了年齡對于家庭消費(fèi)和投資組合重要影響,隨后的許多學(xué)者的研究也發(fā)現(xiàn)居民資產(chǎn)組合具有生命周期特征。本文以生命周期理論為基礎(chǔ),首先理論分析了居民金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響因素；其次,在宏觀層面上分析了我國居民金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的生命周期特征；最后在微觀層面上以江蘇省居民家庭為調(diào)查對象,建立家庭金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的生命周期模型,使用Tobit模型實證分析居民家庭金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響因素,主要得出以下結(jié)論： 第一,從宏觀居民金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)來看,我國居民金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)表現(xiàn)出明顯的生命周期特征：隨著我國中年人口占比的增長,居民金融資產(chǎn)中風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)占比也逐漸增長；隨著我國老年人口占比的增長,居民持有的儲蓄在居民金融資產(chǎn)中的比例不斷減少。 第二,從江蘇省家庭金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)影響因素的實證分析結(jié)果來看,居民家庭金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的生命特征顯著。隨著家庭生命周期的發(fā)展,居民家庭持有儲蓄存款的比例會先減少后增加,對于風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的持有比例在家庭生命周期內(nèi)則呈現(xiàn)出倒“U”型,表現(xiàn)出先增加后減少的形態(tài)。家庭投資決策者的受教育程度在一定程度上影響家庭風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的持有但是對儲蓄資產(chǎn)的持有影響不顯著。 第三,微觀家庭的實證分析結(jié)果還可以看出,家庭財富、住房、家庭負(fù)擔(dān)人口數(shù)以及社會保障、地區(qū)因素都對居民家庭金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)有重要的影響。隨著家庭的財富的增長,居民儲蓄占比會減少而風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的持有比例會增加；住房對于居民風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的持有表現(xiàn)出明顯的“擠出”效應(yīng)；家庭負(fù)擔(dān)人口數(shù)與家庭金融資產(chǎn)中儲蓄存款占比正相關(guān),與風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的持有比例負(fù)相關(guān)；社會保障健全的家庭相對而言持有的儲蓄占比較低；家庭所處的地區(qū)因素會顯著影響家庭風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的占有比例,城市居民相對農(nóng)村居民而言持有的風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)比例更高。 根據(jù)以上研究結(jié)論,本文提出以下政策建議：第一,對政府處理老齡化問題提供新思路。第二,推進(jìn)商業(yè)銀行改革創(chuàng)新。第三,穩(wěn)定和控制房價仍然十分必要。第四,完善農(nóng)村金融和保障體系的建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the total amount of China's national economy has been growing at a rate of more than 10%, the distribution of national income has been continuously tilted to the residents' departments, and the financial assets of the residents have increased rapidly. The increasing aging and declining birth rate make the population structure of our country also have a significant change, the change of population structure has an important impact on the economy and society. This paper is based on the life cycle theory. This paper studies the influence of household life cycle changes on the structure of residents' financial assets in order to provide some reference for coping with the aging of the population and optimizing the structure of residents' financial assets. The classical life cycle hypothesis and life cycle investment theory both prove that age plays an important role in household consumption and portfolio. Subsequently, many scholars also found that the resident asset portfolio has the characteristics of life cycle. Based on the theory of life cycle, this paper firstly analyzes the influencing factors of the structure of resident financial assets. Secondly, it analyzes the life cycle characteristics of Chinese residents' financial assets structure on the macro level. Finally, taking the household of Jiangsu Province as the survey object at the micro level, the life cycle model of the household financial assets structure is established, and the influencing factors of the household financial asset structure are analyzed empirically by using Tobit model. The main conclusions are as follows: First, from the macro resident financial asset structure, the resident financial asset structure of our country shows obvious life cycle characteristics: with the increase of the proportion of middle-aged population in our country. The proportion of risk assets in residents' financial assets also increased gradually; With the increase of the proportion of the elderly population, the proportion of the resident's savings in the resident's financial assets is decreasing. Second, from the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the household financial assets structure in Jiangsu Province, we can see that the life characteristics of the household financial assets structure are significant, and with the development of the family life cycle. The proportion of households holding savings deposits will decrease first and then increase, and the proportion of risky assets will show the inverted "U" type in the household life cycle. The educational level of household investment decision makers affects the holding of household risk assets to a certain extent, but it has no significant impact on the holding of savings assets. Third, the empirical analysis of micro-families can also see that family wealth, housing, family burden population and social security. Regional factors have an important impact on the structure of household financial assets. With the increase of household wealth, the proportion of household savings will decrease and the proportion of risk assets will increase. Housing has obvious "crowding out" effect on resident's risky assets. The number of household burden population is positively related to the proportion of savings deposits in household financial assets, and negatively related to the proportion of risk assets. Households with sound social security hold relatively low levels of savings; The proportion of risky assets held by urban residents is higher than that of rural residents. According to the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: first, to provide new ideas for the government to deal with the aging problem; second, to promote the reform and innovation of commercial banks. Third, to promote the reform and innovation of commercial banks. Stability and control of housing prices is still very necessary. 4th, improve rural financial and security system construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.5

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本文編號：1368919