本文關(guān)鍵詞：股票市場對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用的實(shí)證研究　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 股票市場 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長轉(zhuǎn)型期 改革 儲蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化

【摘要】：2012年A股市場基本進(jìn)入全流通時(shí)代,這也為股權(quán)分置改革劃上了圓滿的句號。我國的股票市場也慢慢的走向成熟,股票市場與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系也慢慢脫離了因?yàn)轶w制原因而造成的束縛。我國的資本市場也開始了多層次的金融體系的建立。債券市場,股票市場,期貨市場,三者構(gòu)成了多層次的金融體系,而且三者的功能是互補(bǔ)的,不僅是實(shí)現(xiàn)金融資源配置的重要平臺,也可以發(fā)揮價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能,為貨幣、資本進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定價(jià)。債券市場是為貨幣利率定價(jià)的場所,而股票市場則是為資本收益率定價(jià)的平臺,而期貨市場則提供了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移機(jī)制。 在股票市場中“盈利”和“流動(dòng)性”是驅(qū)動(dòng)股市的兩個(gè)輪子,在實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中“利潤”和“信貸寬松度”也是企業(yè)家們十分關(guān)心的問題,股票市場是投資者們對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期增長幅度的體現(xiàn),股票投資者們會把資金投向自己認(rèn)為在未來會有很好的增長趨勢的行業(yè)和公司中去,從而會使這些行業(yè)比其他行業(yè)更容易獲得資金,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。國內(nèi)外已有許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們針對股票市場和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系做出了研究。關(guān)于股票市場在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中作用,比較一致的看法是認(rèn)為股票市場具有籌集資金,轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制,優(yōu)化資源配置和分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等功能。 本文將“中國股票市場和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長”作為研究對象,是其他學(xué)者有關(guān)股票市場與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長研究的延續(xù)。之前許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對中國股票市場的研究,限于數(shù)據(jù)的時(shí)間跨度過短和我國股票市場開始于2005年的股權(quán)分置改革還沒有完成等原因,得出了我國股票市場與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間沒有正相關(guān)關(guān)系的結(jié)論。本文的出發(fā)點(diǎn)也是研究“中國股票市場是否促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長”這個(gè)困惑許多人包括作者本人的問題。在理論基礎(chǔ)上股票市場的提出和建立是為了促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的更好更快的發(fā)展,但是在實(shí)際中由于一些投機(jī)因素和不可控因素的存在,股票市場的發(fā)展壯大會出現(xiàn)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)相背離的情況,從而許多人會對股票市場的促進(jìn)作用持有懷疑態(tài)度,這是可以理解的。因此,需要對這一問題進(jìn)行深入的研究,得出比較令人信服的研究結(jié)果。 本文首先回顧了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對股票市場與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的研究。主張股票市場與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長相關(guān)且能顯著地促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,主要從股票市場的融資能力,流動(dòng)性,規(guī)模等角度研究股票市場對資本形成的作用,認(rèn)為股票市場有利于加速資本的形成,促進(jìn)資源的合理配置,從而有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。但是,仍有許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為股票市場與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間并沒有相關(guān)關(guān)系,更有的實(shí)證研究表明,因?yàn)楣善笔袌鲞^高的周轉(zhuǎn)率的原因,阻礙了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。 第二部分從理論方面分析了股票市場對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用。理論方面主要從功能金融學(xué)的角度來分析了股票市場對于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的五大基本功能和作用：股票市場與流動(dòng)性提供、股票市場與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、股票市場與創(chuàng)新、股票市場與信息生產(chǎn)及顯示、股票市場與激勵(lì)問題的強(qiáng)化；深入分析到股票市場與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時(shí),股票市場的建立還具有其獨(dú)特的定位,在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)中,股票市場為全社會的流動(dòng)性的釋放提供了一個(gè)重要的平臺,在股票市場上因?yàn)榱鲃?dòng)性迅速、分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的功能,股票市場自從建立之日起就承擔(dān)了其自然功能。進(jìn)一步的股票市場因?yàn)槭侨客顿Y者對一個(gè)國家未來經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的預(yù)期的集合,從這一個(gè)方面看,股票市場的表現(xiàn)為政府對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)提供了一良好的、天然的指示器。隨著股票市場的擴(kuò)大,與間接融資之間的差距的減少,慢慢的股票市場在貨幣市場和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)之間架起了一座橋梁,成為了兩者之間的紐帶。我國目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況與其他國家相比具有其復(fù)雜性,我國目前正在調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu),積極部署戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè),控制傳統(tǒng)制造的“依靠資源發(fā)展”的模式,但是我國目前積極部署戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)與國外發(fā)達(dá)國家發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)是不同的,國外的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)向新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的過渡是自然更迭、承接關(guān)系,是在傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)充分成熟,由于技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、新的消費(fèi)需求推動(dòng)或其他經(jīng)濟(jì)要素的變化,某種新產(chǎn)業(yè)、新文化形成一個(gè)新產(chǎn)業(yè)。但是我國的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的推進(jìn)和開發(fā)是在傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展不充分的情況下,由外部強(qiáng)力培育、推進(jìn)的,是為了超前布局搶占戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)。因此股票市場與創(chuàng)新之間的關(guān)系,有利于我國戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)資金的募集、結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。因此在理論分析的第三部分還具提討論了我國股票市場的建立對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的轉(zhuǎn)型的特殊貢獻(xiàn)。當(dāng)然也存在著股票市場對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有負(fù)面作用的理論,本文在理論分析的最后部分具體討論了股票市場的泡沫化。與前面理論分析相對應(yīng)的是,除了因?yàn)楣善笔袌鲈谫Y產(chǎn)證券化過程中,對信用的大力擴(kuò)張而產(chǎn)生的股票市場泡沫。我國股票市場的泡沫也有其特殊的而原因,在微觀結(jié)構(gòu)上是因?yàn)槲覈善笔袌鰴C(jī)制的問題,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者比例很少、文化因素導(dǎo)致的投資者喜歡賺“快錢”,沒有退市機(jī)制造成的“st板塊”的熱炒等。在根本原因上還是由我國目前的轉(zhuǎn)型期經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況造成的,傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)的增長處在“下行通道”中,戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)處在“希望”和“概念”中,在股票市場上找不到哪一個(gè)行業(yè)可以有長期的行業(yè)基本面的支持,可以在較長時(shí)期內(nèi)獲得高速發(fā)展的動(dòng)力,價(jià)值投資說起來也就是個(gè)空話,而且資金還具有逐利性,傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)獲得的超額收益在逐漸下降,戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)還處于導(dǎo)入期,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)太大,因而只有資金只有從實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)流向虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì),利用實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的概念來炒作,或者追逐政策板塊。 在本文第三部分的實(shí)證研究中,本文把實(shí)證研究分為三部分分別檢驗(yàn),在第一部分檢驗(yàn)中以居民儲蓄增長率為被解釋變量,分析了股票市場是否起到了把儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為投資的作用。第二部分以新增固定資產(chǎn)投資增長率為被解釋變量,檢驗(yàn)了股票市場對新增固定資產(chǎn)投資的作用。第三部分以實(shí)際GDP增長率為被解釋變量,分析了股票市場的規(guī)模指標(biāo)和流動(dòng)性指標(biāo)是否對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到了促進(jìn)作用。 最后本文具體分析了我國股票市場存在的問題和改革的難度,最后結(jié)合最近郭樹清主席就職后,所提出的一些改革理論,和我國在兩會期間對資本市場的期望,針對目前股市的問題提出了具體的政策建議。 在經(jīng)過一系列的理論分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)后,本文具體得出了以下結(jié)論： 1.我國股票市場總體上對經(jīng)濟(jì)起到了促進(jìn)作用。 2.中國股票市場的發(fā)展規(guī)模要比流動(dòng)性對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到的作用更大,總體上來說我國的股票市場還是一個(gè)“籌資型”的股票市場,自身的機(jī)制并不完善。而且隨著流通市值在總市值中所占比重的增加,股票市場對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長所起的作用越來越明顯。 3.我國股票市場的投機(jī)性比較嚴(yán)重,周轉(zhuǎn)率的增加對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到了負(fù)的作用,投資者在長期投資上所獲得的收益較少,多喜歡投機(jī),獲得短期資本利得。由于投機(jī)的存在使得股票市場可以促進(jìn)上市公司信息披露透明化,管理現(xiàn)代企業(yè)化的功能被弱化,阻礙了上市國企,上市民企的企業(yè)制度的改革,沒有對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到存進(jìn)作用。 4.在對股票市場把儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為投資的實(shí)證分析中可以發(fā)現(xiàn),我國股票市場的規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大和流動(dòng)性的增加使得我國居民的投資組合收益最大化,增加了居民的儲蓄。但是因?yàn)楣善笔袌錾锨f家的存在使得大部分散戶投資者在投機(jī)上獲得了負(fù)的收益。而且在我國股市的發(fā)展過程中城鎮(zhèn)居民起到了更大的作用,我國農(nóng)村居民的投資渠道還十分有限。 5.我國居民對可以在股票市場上能過獲得長期收益的信心不足,大部分投資者都做不到堅(jiān)持長期價(jià)值投資的理念。 6.在對股票市場對新增固定資產(chǎn)投資作用的檢驗(yàn)中可以發(fā)現(xiàn),我國股票市場促進(jìn)創(chuàng)新性企業(yè)發(fā)展的功能得到了顯著的發(fā)揮。股票市場直接融資方式極大的促進(jìn)了我國上市企業(yè)對科技含量高、投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大、回收周期長的項(xiàng)目的投資,推動(dòng)了我國技術(shù)的創(chuàng)新性應(yīng)用。 根據(jù)所做的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,和我國股票市場的具體現(xiàn)狀,本文提出了以下的具體政策： 1.要健全完善新股發(fā)行制度和退市制度 2.培育和引導(dǎo)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者, 3.完善投資理念推動(dòng)上市公司完善投資者回報(bào)機(jī)制 4.加強(qiáng)科技創(chuàng)新與資本市場對接
[Abstract]:In 2012 A A-share market to enter the full circulation times, this is also for the reform of non tradable shares ended successfully. China's stock market is gradually mature, the relationship between stock market and economic growth are slowly out of the shackles of the system. Because the cause of China's capital market also began building the level of the financial system. The bond market, stock market, futures market, the three constitute a multi-level financial system, and the three functions are complementary, not only is an important platform for the allocation of financial resources, but also can play the function of price discovery, currency, capital pricing risk. The bond market is for money interest rate pricing places, while the stock market is the rate of return on capital pricing platform and the futures markets provide the risk transfer mechanism.
In the stock market "profit" and "liquidity" is the two wheels of the stock market, in the real economy "profit" and "credit easing" entrepreneurs is also very concerned about the issue, the stock market investors are expected to reflect the growth rate of the real economy, stock investors will invest in their thought have a good growth trend in the future of the industry and the company, which will make the industry than other industries are more likely to obtain funds to promote economic growth. There are many economists on the relationship between stock market and economic growth has made the research on the stock market. The role in economic growth, more consistent the view is that the stock market is to raise funds, transformation mechanism, optimize the allocation of resources and risk diversification and other functions.
The China stock market and economic growth "as the research object, the other is the continuation of scholars study the stock market and economic growth. Many economists of the Chinese stock market, due to the limited data and short period of China's stock market began in 2005 the share reform has not been completed, the no positive correlation between the stock market and economic growth in China. The starting point of this paper is to study the China whether the stock market to promote economic growth in the confusion of many people including the author. In the stock market on the basis of the theory proposed in this paper is to promote the economy better and faster development, but in the actual because of some speculative factors and uncontrollable factors, the development of the stock market will appear and deviate from the strong macroeconomic situation, thus Many people will be skeptical about the promotion role of the stock market. This is understandable. Therefore, we need to further study this problem and draw a convincing research result.
This paper first reviews the research on the relationship between stock market and economic growth in domestic and foreign scholars advocate. The stock market and economic growth and can promote the economic growth of the economist, mainly from the stock market financing ability, liquidity, stock market scale angle field research on capital formation, believes that the stock market will accelerate the form of capital, promote the rational allocation of resources, which is conducive to economic growth. However, there are still many economists that there is no relationship between stock market and economic growth, more empirical studies show that because of the stock market, high turnover rate, hinder economic growth.
The second part analyzes the theoretical aspects of the stock market to promote economic growth. The theory mainly from the perspective of the financial function of the stock market for the five basic functions of economic growth: the stock market and provide liquidity, the stock market and the stock market risk management, and innovation, the stock market and information production and show that the strengthening of the stock market and incentive problems; in-depth analysis to the stock market and economic growth, the establishment of the stock market also has its unique location, in the macro economy, the stock market provides an important platform for the release of the liquidity of the whole society, because the liquidity in the stock market rapidly. The function of risk diversification, the stock market since the establishment date took its natural function. Further the stock market because it is all investors in a country's future economic development Set the expected development, from this perspective, the performance of the stock market for the government in macroeconomic regulation provides a good, natural indicator. With the expansion of the stock market, and reduce the indirect financing gap between the stock market and gradually set up a bridge between the money market and the the real economy, has become a link between the two. The current economic situation of our country and other countries compared with its complexity, our country is actively adjusting the structure, the deployment of strategic emerging industries, the traditional manufacturing control "rely on resource development" model, but China's current active deployment of strategic emerging industries in developed countries and development strategy the emerging industry is different, the traditional industry abroad transition to the emerging industry is a natural change, undertake relations, in the traditional industry is fully mature, due to technological innovation, the new consumer demand The push for change or other economic factors, some new industries, new culture and the formation of a new industry. But the advance and the development of emerging industry in China is in the traditional industrial development is not sufficient, by external strength cultivation, promote, in order to seize the strategic emerging industry ahead of the layout. So the relationship between the stock market and innovation, is conducive to China's strategic emerging industries to raise funds, the adjustment of the structure. In the third part, the theoretical analysis is provided to discuss the establishment of the stock market of our country's special contribution to the transformation of the economic system of our country. Of course there are also the stock market has a negative effect on the economic growth theory, this paper in the last part of the theoretical analysis are discussed in detail of the stock market bubble. Compared with the previous theoretical analysis, because in addition to the stock market in the process of asset securitization, a large force of credit expansion Zhang and stock market bubble. China's stock market bubble has its special reasons, the microstructure is because the mechanism of China's stock market, the proportion of institutional investors rarely, cultural factors lead investors love to make quick money, no delisting machine manufacturing into the "St plate" stir fried. In the root cause or caused by the transformation period of our country current economic situation, the traditional manufacturing industry growth in the downlink channel ", strategic emerging industries in the" Hope "and" concept ", where an industry can support the fundamentals of the long-term industry was not found in the stock market that can obtain the momentum of rapid development in a long period of time, the value of the investment that is also a talk, but money also has a profit driven, traditional manufacturing industry gains a gradual decline in the strategic emerging industries is still. In the lead-in period, the risk is too large. Therefore, only the funds flow from the real economy to the virtual economy, and we should use the concept of the strategic emerging industry in the real economy to hype or pursue the policy sector.
In the third part of the empirical research, the empirical research is divided into three parts. In the first part inspection, inspection to the growth of household savings rate as explanatory variables, analysis of the stock market is to put the savings into investment. In the second part, the new growth rate of investment in fixed assets as the explained variable to test the effect on the stock market, new investment in fixed assets. The third part of the real GDP growth rate as explanatory variables, analyzes the index scale index and the liquidity of the stock market on economic growth plays a promoting role.
Finally, this paper analyses the existing problem in the Chinese stock market and the difficulty of the reform. Finally, combined with the recent president Guo Shuqing after he proposed some reform theory in China and NPC and CPPCC during the capital market expectations, aiming at the problem of the stock market put forward specific policy recommendations.
After a series of theoretical analyses and empirical tests, the following conclusions are made in this paper.
1. China's stock market on the whole has played a role in promoting the economy.
The scale of the development of 2. Chinese stock market liquidity is bigger than the impact on economic growth, overall China's stock market is a "capital" in the stock market, its mechanism is not perfect. But with the market capitalization accounted for in the total market value of the proportion of the increase, and role from the stock market to economic growth is more obvious.
3. of China's stock market speculation is serious, increase the turnover rate of the negative effect on economic growth, investors in long-term investment on less income and more love speculation, short-term capital gains due to speculation. Due to the existence of the stock market can promote the transparency of information disclosure of listed companies, the management of modern enterprise the function is weakened, hindering the reform of state-owned enterprises listed, listed private enterprise system, not to put into effect on economic growth.
4. in the stock market to convert savings into investment can be found in the empirical analysis, increase the size of the expansion of China's stock market liquidity and maximize our residents' investment portfolio returns and increase savings. But because the stock market makers are making most retail investors get a negative gains in speculation. But to a greater role in the urban development process of China's stock market in our country, rural residents' investment channels is very limited.
5. our residents are less confident about the ability to gain long-term earnings in the stock market, and most of the investors do not have the idea of persisting in long-term value investment.
6. can be found in the inspection of the stock market on the new fixed asset investment effect in China's stock market to promote the development of innovative enterprise's function has been significant play. Direct financing of stock market has greatly promoted China's listed enterprises of high technology content, high risk investment, long payback period of investment projects and promoted the application of innovative technology in China.
According to the results of the empirical analysis and the specific status of the stock market in China, the following specific policies are put forward.
1. to perfect and perfect the system of new issue and the system of delisting
2. to cultivate and guide institutional investors,
3. perfect investment idea and promote the return mechanism of the listed company to improve the investor
4. strengthen the docking of scientific and technological innovation and capital market

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F124;F224

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