發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-12-31 02:08

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣升值對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的影響研究　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣升值 貿(mào)易收支 馬歇爾—勒納條件 匯率傳遞效應(yīng) 貿(mào)易彈性

【摘要】：中國(guó)政府于2005年7月21日宣布實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度,形成了更富彈性的人民幣匯率機(jī)制,邁上了人民幣兌美元主動(dòng)升值之路,預(yù)示著25年持續(xù)貶值發(fā)生方向上的重大轉(zhuǎn)變。截止2011年12月,人民幣兌美元持續(xù)升值幅度達(dá)到30.8%,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率上升28.1%,名義有效匯率上升19.0%。2000年以來中國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的顯著特征是大型持久貿(mào)易順差持續(xù)10年之久：2002年以后經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余/GDP開始持續(xù)攀升,2005年以后的7年內(nèi)年均值達(dá)到6.70%,最高值為2007年的10.13%,在國(guó)際金融危機(jī)中經(jīng)歷了盈余反轉(zhuǎn),但仍然高居不下,這在大國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中是鮮見的。本文將人民幣大幅升值并未有效糾正貿(mào)易失衡的現(xiàn)象稱為人民幣匯率“調(diào)節(jié)困境”,并以此為問題導(dǎo)向,系統(tǒng)評(píng)估2005年匯改以來人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的影響,定性和定量研究人民幣升值對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制和調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)尤其是日本經(jīng)驗(yàn)的比較,揭示中國(guó)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的一般性和特殊性,并啟示政策建議。這不僅有助于深入理解匯率作為價(jià)格工具的調(diào)節(jié)作用,也便于理解中國(guó)貿(mào)易失衡的性質(zhì)、結(jié)構(gòu)和癥結(jié),將為中央銀行評(píng)估匯率政策效果和制訂未來政策方向提供依據(jù)。從理論層面看,匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的影響分為邏輯鏈條上的兩個(gè)問題：一是匯率對(duì)進(jìn)出口價(jià)格的影響；二是相對(duì)價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)總供求的影響(Dornbusch,1996)。馬歇爾一勒納條件的一般形式是將兩個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)統(tǒng)一起來回答主旨問題的理論和實(shí)證框架。為此,本文主要研究以下三個(gè)問題：人民幣匯率對(duì)進(jìn)出口價(jià)格的傳遞效應(yīng)、貿(mào)易彈性以及人民幣升值對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的影響。主要論述結(jié)構(gòu)和過程如下：在國(guó)際收支調(diào)節(jié)和匯率調(diào)節(jié)貿(mào)易收支的文獻(xiàn)綜述基礎(chǔ)上,本文首先從總體和分行業(yè)兩個(gè)層面考察了2005年匯改以來人民幣升值對(duì)進(jìn)口價(jià)格的傳遞效應(yīng)。構(gòu)建分布滯后的時(shí)間序列模型,運(yùn)用OLS方法估計(jì)短期和長(zhǎng)期的進(jìn)口價(jià)格ERPT系數(shù),并研究進(jìn)口價(jià)格的影響因素。研究表明,中國(guó)進(jìn)口價(jià)格的ERPT系數(shù)長(zhǎng)期接近完全傳遞,存在時(shí)滯效應(yīng),行業(yè)差異較為顯著。進(jìn)口計(jì)價(jià)貨幣以美元為主和進(jìn)口替代能力較弱決定了進(jìn)口價(jià)格ERPT系數(shù)較高的現(xiàn)狀。國(guó)外資源品和生產(chǎn)成本的大幅上漲是推動(dòng)進(jìn)口價(jià)格上漲的主要因素,名義匯率的影響程度較弱。第四章從總體、行業(yè)和時(shí)間段三個(gè)層面研究了2005年匯改以來人民幣升值對(duì)出口價(jià)格的傳遞效應(yīng)。在總體層面上,構(gòu)建分布滯后的時(shí)間序列模型,運(yùn)用OLS方法估計(jì)出口價(jià)格的長(zhǎng)期ERPT系數(shù),分為基準(zhǔn)模型和備擇模型。在分行業(yè)層面上,運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,分為短期彈性的面板模型和長(zhǎng)期彈性(含滯后項(xiàng))的面板模型,研究出口價(jià)格的影響因素。研究表明,中國(guó)出口價(jià)格的匯率傳遞長(zhǎng)期接近零傳遞,存在時(shí)滯效應(yīng)。出口廠商具有一定的PTM定價(jià)能力,行業(yè)差異較為顯著。規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、匯率與工資長(zhǎng)期低估、貿(mào)易方式與市場(chǎng)份額從供給上決定了出口價(jià)格的ERPT系數(shù)較低。出口廠商的生產(chǎn)成本是出口價(jià)格的決定因素,名義匯率的影響程度較弱。實(shí)際匯率上升的承受力因出口行業(yè)而異,雜項(xiàng)制品類商品的出口廠商成本消化壓力最大。以上兩章研究了匯率影響貿(mào)易收支的第一步——匯率傳遞效應(yīng),第五章著手研究第二步——貿(mào)易彈性。根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貿(mào)易模型,運(yùn)用OLS方法計(jì)量收入彈性和價(jià)格彈性,從總體、行業(yè)和時(shí)間段層面比較研究,揭示中國(guó)貿(mào)易彈性的特征。研究表明,中國(guó)進(jìn)出口的價(jià)格彈性和收入彈性落在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的價(jià)格彈性和收入彈性的區(qū)間內(nèi),但進(jìn)口的價(jià)格彈性不穩(wěn)定,甚至出現(xiàn)了正值。中國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的調(diào)整主要來自于國(guó)內(nèi)外收入,存在總量偏見：進(jìn)口收入彈性的行業(yè)平均值高于總體,出口價(jià)格彈性的行業(yè)平均值高于總體。人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率上升并未有效改善貿(mào)易條件。在第三、四、五章的實(shí)證結(jié)果(進(jìn)口價(jià)格ERPT系數(shù)、出口價(jià)格PTM系數(shù)和進(jìn)出口價(jià)格彈性)基礎(chǔ)上,第五章接著拓展馬歇爾—勒納條件的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)形式,逐一打開假定,提出了三個(gè)命題逐一證明,從理論上推導(dǎo)其一般形式,并進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。研究表明,2005年匯改以來人民幣升值對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的影響表現(xiàn)在四個(gè)方面：一是匯率調(diào)節(jié)的有效性。人民幣升值對(duì)于總體和原材料、機(jī)械設(shè)備與運(yùn)輸及雜項(xiàng)制品三個(gè)行業(yè)貿(mào)易順差的調(diào)節(jié)方向基本正�！嫦蛘{(diào)節(jié),表明人民幣匯率調(diào)節(jié)的有效性存在。二是匯率調(diào)節(jié)的彈性。人民幣名義有效匯率上升1%,美元計(jì)價(jià)的貿(mào)易順差下降0.13%,印證了“彈性悲觀論”。但行業(yè)差異明顯,存在總量偏見,即分行業(yè)的“彈性樂觀論”和加總的“彈性悲觀論”。三是匯率調(diào)節(jié)的難易順序。在初始狀態(tài)為貿(mào)易順差時(shí),人民幣升值對(duì)機(jī)械設(shè)備與運(yùn)輸、原材料、總體以及雜項(xiàng)制品的調(diào)節(jié)能力依次降低。四是匯率不是調(diào)節(jié)貿(mào)易失衡的主渠道。人民幣升值對(duì)貿(mào)易失衡的調(diào)節(jié)方向與其實(shí)際調(diào)節(jié)并不一致,且遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于實(shí)際變動(dòng)幅度。這說明人民幣升值的調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng)處于初期,收入效應(yīng)和反向替代效應(yīng)抵消了貨幣升值的逆向調(diào)節(jié),主導(dǎo)了2005年以來貿(mào)易順差的加速積累。從重要性角度看,進(jìn)出口價(jià)格彈性、初始狀態(tài)的貿(mào)易平衡度和匯率傳遞率是依次決定人民幣匯率調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng)的因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文概述了人民幣升值對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制。圍繞如何改善貿(mào)易失衡的調(diào)節(jié)效能,本文從貿(mào)易失衡的調(diào)節(jié)和匯率調(diào)節(jié)貿(mào)易順差兩個(gè)方面歸納總結(jié)國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn),以有過大幅升值經(jīng)歷的亞洲國(guó)家——日本為例,從宏觀和中觀層面比較研究貨幣升值對(duì)貿(mào)易順差的調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng)。最終提出政策建議：抓住匯率政策的著力點(diǎn),推進(jìn)匯率形成機(jī)制改革；建立適應(yīng)匯率調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制的貿(mào)易部門監(jiān)測(cè)體系,實(shí)時(shí)跟蹤實(shí)際匯率的調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng)；重新審視出口導(dǎo)向型政策,著力從供給層面提升貿(mào)易品價(jià)格彈性；發(fā)揮匯率約束機(jī)制的能動(dòng)作用,促進(jìn)結(jié)構(gòu)改革和“二次創(chuàng)業(yè)”。
[Abstract]:In July 21, 2005 the government announced the implementation of China based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, a managed floating exchange rate system, formed a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism, to the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar initiative Road, 25 years indicates a significant shift in the direction of the continued depreciation of the RMB. By the end of December 2011. The dollar continued appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate reached 30.8%, up 28.1% since the nominal effective exchange rate rise 19.0%.2000 China trade balance is characteristic of large persistent trade surplus continued for 10 years after 2002 /GDP began rising current-account surplus, since 2005 7 years the average reached 6.70%, the highest value in 2007 10.13%, in the international financial crisis experienced a surplus reversal, but still high, this is rare in the country economy. This article will The sharp appreciation of the RMB is not effective to correct the trade imbalance phenomenon is called "the RMB exchange rate adjustment dilemma", and as a problem oriented evaluation system, the exchange rate reform since 2005, the impact of RMB appreciation on the trade balance China, qualitative and quantitative analysis of RMB appreciation on the trade balance adjustment mechanism and regulation effect. On this basis, especially through the international experience is the Japanese experience, general and special China reveal the experience, and implications of policy recommendations. This not only helps to deeply understand the exchange rate as the price adjustment tool, easy to understand the nature of China trade imbalances, the structure and the crux of the problem, the central bank will assess the effect of the exchange rate policy and provide basis for making future policy direction from the theoretical perspective, the impact of exchange rate on trade balance is divided into two logical chain: one is the exchange rate on the import and export price. Ring; two is the relative price changes on the total supply and demand (Dornbusch, 1996). The general form of the Marshall Lerner condition is two aspects of unified answer theme question theoretical and empirical framework. Therefore, this paper mainly studies the following three questions: the RMB exchange rate pass through effect on import and export prices, trade elasticity and the impact of RMB appreciation on the trade balance. Mainly discusses the structure and process are as follows: the basis of regulating the trade balance in the international balance of payments and exchange rate review, this paper is divided into two levels and industry effects of the exchange rate reform since 2005 RMB appreciation effect on import prices. To construct the time series model with distributed lag. OLS method to estimate the short-term and long-term import price coefficient of ERPT, and to study the factors affecting the price of imports. The research results show that the ERPT coefficient of price Chinese imported long To complete delivery, time lag, industry difference is significant. The dollar denominated imports and import substitution ability determines the status of the import price of ERPT coefficient is higher. The foreign resources products and production costs rose sharply is the main factors to promote the import prices, the nominal exchange rate is weak influence. In the fourth chapter overall, three levels of industry and time of the exchange rate reform since 2005, RMB appreciation on the export price transfer effect. In the overall level, the construction model of time series distribution lag, OLS method is used to estimate the long-term ERPT coefficient of the export price, divided into the benchmark model and the alternative model. At the industry level, the use of the panel data model, divided into short-term and long-term elastic panel model (including the elastic lag back) panel model to study the factors that influence the export price. The study shows that in China's export The price of the exchange rate pass through long-term zero transfer, there was a time lag. The export manufacturers have a PTM pricing ability, industry difference is significant. The economies of scale, long-term wage and exchange rate undervalued, trade and market share from the supply of ERPT is determined by the coefficient of the export price is low. The export production cost is the decisive factor in the export price the nominal exchange rate is weak influence. The real exchange rate rising affordability as the export sector varies, miscellaneous products goods export cost digestion biggest pressure. The two chapter studies the influence of the exchange rate over the first step -- a trade exchange rate pass through effect, the fifth chapter of the second step, trade elasticity. According to the standard trade model using OLS method, measuring income elasticity and price elasticity, in general, a comparative study of industry and time level, reveal the characteristics of Chinese trade elasticity. Show that the interval China import and export price and income elasticity in developed countries the price elasticity and income elasticity within, but the price elasticity of imports is not stable, even when Chinese. Trade balance adjustment mainly comes from the domestic and foreign income, total income elasticity of import bias: the industry average is higher than the whole. The price elasticity of export value is higher than the industry average. The overall appreciation of the real effective exchange rate did not improve the terms of trade. In third, fourth, the results of the five chapter (the import price of ERPT coefficient, PTM coefficient and the export price of import and export price elasticity) based on the standard form of the fifth chapter and then expand the Marshall Lerner condition, one by one to open the assumption. Put forward three propositions one by one that derives its general form, and conduct empirical research. The results show that the exchange rate reform since 2005, RMB appreciation on the trade Easy payments affect performance in four aspects: one is the effectiveness of exchange rate adjustment. RMB appreciation for the overall and raw materials, adjust the direction of mechanical equipment and transportation and miscellaneous products three industry trade surplus normal -- reverse regulation, indicate the existence of Effective RMB exchange rate adjustment is two. The RMB exchange rate adjustment flexibility. The nominal effective exchange rate rose 1% dollar denominated trade surplus fell 0.13%, confirms the "elastic pessimism". But the industry differences, total bias, namely industry "elastic optimistic theory" and "total elastic pessimism". The three is the exchange rate adjustment difficult. In order for the initial state trade surplus, RMB appreciation on machinery and transportation, raw materials, and the overall adjustment ability of miscellaneous products decreased. Four is the main channel of exchange rate is not to adjust the trade imbalance of RMB appreciation on. Adjust the direction of the trade imbalance is not consistent with the actual regulation, and far lower than the actual magnitude of changes. The regulating effect of RMB appreciation in the early stage, the income effect and substitution effect of reverse offset reverse regulation of currency appreciation, leading the trade surplus since 2005 accelerated accumulation. From the point of view, import and export price elasticity, initial state the trade balance and exchange rate pass rate is in turn determines factors of RMB exchange rate adjustment effect. On this basis, this paper summarizes the regulation mechanism of RMB appreciation on the trade balance. On how to improve the regulation efficiency of trade imbalance, the imbalance of trade adjustment and exchange rate adjustment in two aspects of trade surplus summarizes international experience, to have the Asian countries experienced a sharp appreciation of Japan as an example, from the macro and meso level comparison of currency appreciation on trade surplus The regulating effect. Finally put forward some policy recommendations: seize the focus of exchange rate policy, promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism; to establish trade department monitoring system of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism, adjust the effect of real-time tracking of the real exchange rate; re-examine the export-oriented policy, efforts to enhance the level of trade goods from the supply price elasticity functions; exchange rate mechanism the promotion of structural reform and two entrepreneurs.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F752.6;F832.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 張斌,何帆;如何應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)崛起時(shí)期的匯率升值壓力——日本、德國(guó)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)與啟示[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;2004年03期

，

本文編號(hào)：1357598