本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率波動對我國出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響研究　出處：《廣東財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 匯率變動 出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu) 匯率彈性 勞動密集型產(chǎn)品 資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品 資源密集型產(chǎn)品

【摘要】：本文主要是從理論和實證兩個方面進行分析,本文的框架是建立在人民幣升值變動后對我國出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生怎樣影響的理論邏輯上,結(jié)合比較優(yōu)勢理論、匯率彈性分析理論等來進行理論分析,接著,通過數(shù)據(jù)進行VAR實證研究,根據(jù)SITC分類,通常情況下將出口產(chǎn)品SITCO-SITC4類初級產(chǎn)品定義為資源密集型產(chǎn)品,SITC6和SITC8類制成品定義為勞動密集型產(chǎn)品,SITC5和SITC7類制成品定義為資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品,來說明人民幣匯率升值對我國出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,分別以勞動密集型產(chǎn)品在出口總額里的占比、資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品在出口總額里的占比、資源密集型產(chǎn)品在出口總額里的占比為被解釋變量,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、外商直接投資、人民幣實際匯率、出口退稅為解釋變量進行實證分析,以實證結(jié)果來驗證理論分析。最后得出結(jié)論,人民幣匯率變動對我國出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)有顯著性的影響,其影響程度按匯率波動系數(shù)的大小依次為勞動密集型產(chǎn)品、資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品和資源密集型產(chǎn)品。所以,在人民幣升值和匯率波動性增強的背景下,我國不能忽視匯率變動對傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)生的巨大沖擊,不同類別商品的出口要根據(jù)自身產(chǎn)品的情況,考慮長期短期動態(tài)影響。短期內(nèi)積極利用金融工具等措施規(guī)避匯率波動帶來的風險,長期來看,仍需積極提升產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量、增強產(chǎn)品國際競爭力和議價能力,減少人民幣升值帶來的不利影響。
[Abstract]:This paper is mainly analyzed from two aspects of theory and empirical, this framework is based on the structure of China's export products in the appreciation of the renminbi after a change in how to influence on the logic of theory, combined with the theory of comparative advantage, the exchange rate elasticity analysis theory to make a theoretical analysis and empirical research through VAR data, according to the SITC classification under normal circumstances, exports of primary products of class SITCO-SITC4 is defined as the resource intensive products, SITC6 and SITC8 types of manufactured goods is defined as labor intensive products, SITC5 and SITC7 types of manufactured goods is defined as the capital technology intensive products, to illustrate the impact of RMB appreciation on China's export structure, with labor intensive products in total exports in the proportion of capital intensive products in total exports in the proportion of resource intensive products in total exports accounted for. The explanatory variables, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, RMB real exchange rate and export tax rebate are explanatory variables. Empirical analysis is used to verify the theoretical analysis. Finally, it is concluded that the change of RMB exchange rate has a significant impact on the structure of China's export products, and the degree of its influence is labor intensive, capital intensive, and resource intensive products according to the coefficient of exchange rate fluctuation. Therefore, under the background of increasing RMB appreciation and exchange rate volatility, China cannot ignore the huge impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the traditional superior products. The export of different categories of commodities should consider long-term and short-term dynamic effects based on the situation of their products. In the short term, we should take advantage of financial instruments and other measures to avoid risks brought by exchange rate fluctuations. In the long run, we need to actively improve the technological content of products, enhance the competitiveness and bargaining power of products, and reduce the adverse effects brought by RMB appreciation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.62;F832.6

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