【摘要】：近十多年來,隨著全球經(jīng)濟一體化的不斷進步,企業(yè)面臨的競爭日益激烈,為了能夠快速有效地適應(yīng)迅速變換的市場,許多企業(yè)利用供應(yīng)鏈的思想重構(gòu)其業(yè)務(wù)流程,快速響應(yīng)市場。但是,供應(yīng)鏈并不是萬能的,它是一個復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng),當(dāng)參與供應(yīng)鏈的主體越來越多時,供應(yīng)鏈的運作也就越來越精巧復(fù)雜,一個突如其來的災(zāi)難可能會讓平時運作狀態(tài)極佳的供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生癱瘓。近些年來,發(fā)生了很多的突發(fā)事件,給整個社會、企業(yè)以及個人等帶來了很大的損失。當(dāng)事件發(fā)生后,如何來更好地應(yīng)對突發(fā)事件就是非常重要的,因此,必須進一步深入地了解突發(fā)事件,認(rèn)真分析它對節(jié)點企業(yè)的影響。目前,學(xué)術(shù)界對供應(yīng)鏈突發(fā)事件研究的滯后與供應(yīng)鏈實業(yè)界面臨的突發(fā)事件越來越嚴(yán)重的挑戰(zhàn)構(gòu)成了鮮明的對比。本文正是基于此,從突發(fā)事件的基礎(chǔ)知識研究入手,總結(jié)出突發(fā)事件涵義、特征及分類,最后運用Simulink仿真技術(shù),構(gòu)建了三級供應(yīng)鏈庫存模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上來分析突發(fā)事件對物價指數(shù)及需求變動的影響。本文主要從兩個方面來研究突發(fā)事件對供應(yīng)鏈節(jié)點企業(yè)的影響：一是突發(fā)事件如何影響物價指數(shù)的；二是突發(fā)事件導(dǎo)致需求發(fā)生變動后,是如何影響節(jié)點企業(yè)的。具體的研究結(jié)果如下：在分析突發(fā)事件對物價指數(shù)的影響時,本文利用ARIMA模型研究了突發(fā)事件——2008年南方雪災(zāi)事件對物價指數(shù)的影響。分析結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),在雪災(zāi)事件發(fā)生期間,物價指數(shù)指數(shù)實際值與預(yù)測值的差值大部分都為正數(shù),說明雪災(zāi)事件對我國物價指數(shù)產(chǎn)生了上漲的正向沖擊。在分析突發(fā)事件對需求變動的影響時,創(chuàng)建了Simulink仿真模型下的關(guān)于三級供應(yīng)鏈庫存模型,分析了突發(fā)事件后,供應(yīng)鏈層級和提前期參數(shù)的變化對節(jié)點企業(yè)的影響,通過計算最大李雅普諾夫指數(shù)LE值,來判定供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性。最終得出,在信息不共享條件下：(1)從零售商到生產(chǎn)商,缺貨量LE值減小,說明節(jié)點企業(yè)的不確定性減��；(2)從零售商到生產(chǎn)商,庫存量LE值減小,說明節(jié)點企業(yè)的穩(wěn)定性增加；(3)并不是提前期越大,就會導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性越低。在信息共享條件下：供應(yīng)鏈節(jié)點企業(yè)之間的所有信息等都是互相分享的,在此情況下,不同的參數(shù)所導(dǎo)致的供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)不確定性要有所改善。
[Abstract]:In recent ten years, with the continuous progress of global economic integration, enterprises are facing increasingly fierce competition. In order to adapt rapidly and effectively to the rapidly changing market, many enterprises use the idea of supply chain to reconstruct their business processes. Respond quickly to the market. However, the supply chain is not omnipotent, it is a complex system, when more and more participants participate in the supply chain, the operation of the supply chain becomes more and more sophisticated and complex. A sudden disaster could paralyse a well-functioning supply chain. In recent years, a lot of unexpected events have taken place, which have brought great losses to the whole society, enterprises and individuals. It is very important how to deal with emergencies better after the event occurs. Therefore, it is necessary to further understand the emergency and analyze its impact on the node enterprises. At present, the lag in the research of supply chain emergencies in academic circles is in sharp contrast to the more and more serious challenges facing the supply chain industry. Based on this, this paper starts with the research of the basic knowledge of emergency, summarizes the meaning, characteristics and classification of emergency, and finally constructs a three-level supply chain inventory model by using Simulink simulation technology. On this basis, to analyze the impact of unexpected events on the price index and demand changes. This paper mainly studies the impact of unexpected events on supply chain node enterprises from two aspects: first, how emergencies affect the price index; second, how to affect node enterprises after unexpected events cause changes in demand. The results are as follows: in the analysis of the impact of unexpected events on the price index, this paper uses ARIMA model to study the impact of the sudden events-the snow disaster in 2008 on the price index. The results show that the difference between the actual value of the price index and the predicted value is mostly positive during the snow disaster event, which indicates that the snow disaster event has a positive impact on the price index of our country. When analyzing the impact of unexpected events on demand change, a three-level supply chain inventory model based on Simulink simulation model is established, and the impact of the change of supply chain level and lead time parameters on the node enterprises is analyzed. The stability of the supply chain system is determined by calculating the maximum Lyapunov exponent LE. Finally, under the condition that the information is not shared: (1) from retailer to producer, the LE value of stock shortage decreases, which indicates that the uncertainty of node enterprise is reduced; (2) from retailer to manufacturer, the LE value of inventory decreases, which indicates that the stability of node enterprise increases; (3) the longer the lead time, the lower the stability of supply chain system. Under the condition of information sharing, all the information between the supply chain node enterprises is shared with each other. In this case, the uncertainty of the supply chain system caused by different parameters should be improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F726;F274

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本文編號：2324493