【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著我國(guó)工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化的深入推進(jìn),能源資源消耗持續(xù)增加,以煤為主的能源結(jié)構(gòu)嚴(yán)重影響了人民的身體健康和生活環(huán)境,引起社會(huì)各界對(duì)環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題的密切關(guān)切。生物質(zhì)能是重要清潔的可再生能源,是全球繼石油、煤炭、天然氣之后的第四大能源,成為國(guó)際能源轉(zhuǎn)型的重要力量。生物質(zhì)能具有綠色、低碳、清潔、可再生且儲(chǔ)存豐富等特點(diǎn),具有廣闊的發(fā)展前景。加快生物質(zhì)能開(kāi)發(fā)利用,是推進(jìn)能源生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)革命的重要內(nèi)容,是改善環(huán)境質(zhì)量、發(fā)展循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要任務(wù)。在“十三五”發(fā)展期間,國(guó)家大力推動(dòng)生物質(zhì)能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,但秸稈收集困難成為制約我國(guó)生物質(zhì)能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主要問(wèn)題。本文將農(nóng)戶的秸稈供給數(shù)量作為模糊變量,在兩種供應(yīng)模式下建立秸稈燃料供給模型,通過(guò)模型推導(dǎo)和算例模型分析了兩種模式下供應(yīng)鏈三方契約數(shù)量及秸稈供給情況。研究結(jié)果表明:農(nóng)戶的期望供給數(shù)量主要取決于秸稈收購(gòu)價(jià)格和前期的固定資本投入;中間商的利潤(rùn)水平很大程度上決定了農(nóng)戶的供給數(shù)量和電廠的收購(gòu)數(shù)量;在農(nóng)戶→農(nóng)村正式組織→電廠的供應(yīng)模式下,農(nóng)戶的供給數(shù)量始終保持在較高的水平。契約協(xié)調(diào)是促進(jìn)供應(yīng)鏈優(yōu)化的重要方式,合理的契約可以激勵(lì)供應(yīng)鏈各方,改善各方的行為。本文在模糊供給情況下,探討了成本分擔(dān)契約、收益共享契約和期貨契約對(duì)生物質(zhì)發(fā)電燃料供應(yīng)鏈的影響:在成本分擔(dān)契約中,電廠和中間商主動(dòng)分擔(dān)農(nóng)戶的固定成本,可以有效的激勵(lì)農(nóng)戶做出供給秸稈行為,保證秸稈供給數(shù)量的增加,電廠、中間商和農(nóng)戶模糊期望收益也相應(yīng)增加,但由于分擔(dān)成本的增加,會(huì)額外增加電廠或中間商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其契約數(shù)量會(huì)有所減少;在收益共享契約中,收益共享契約對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈穩(wěn)定具有明顯的效果,在簽訂收益共享契約后,農(nóng)戶秸稈供應(yīng)數(shù)量和中間商秸稈收購(gòu)情況都不斷好轉(zhuǎn),代價(jià)是電廠讓渡一部分的發(fā)電收益;在期貨契約中,低保證金和高收購(gòu)價(jià)格情形下,供應(yīng)鏈更加穩(wěn)定。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the further development of industrialization and urbanization in our country, the consumption of energy and resources has been continuously increasing. The energy structure based on coal has seriously affected the people's health and living environment. Causes the social all walks of life to the environmental pollution question the close concern. Biomass energy is an important clean renewable energy, is the world's fourth largest energy after oil, coal, natural gas, has become an important force in the international energy transformation. Biomass energy has the characteristics of green, low carbon, clean, renewable and abundant storage. Speeding up the development and utilization of biomass energy is an important content of promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption, and an important task of improving environmental quality and developing circular economy. During the development of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the state vigorously promoted the development of biomass energy industry, but the difficulty of straw collection has become the main problem restricting the development of biomass energy industry in China. In this paper, the amount of straw supply of farmers is taken as a fuzzy variable, and the model of straw fuel supply is established under two supply modes. Through the model derivation and example model, the quantity of supply chain and the supply of straw are analyzed. The results show that the expected supply quantity of farmers mainly depends on the purchase price of straw and the fixed capital input in the preceding period, and the profit level of the middleman largely determines the supply quantity of farmers and the purchase quantity of power plant. Under the supply mode of rural formal organization of power plants, the supply quantity of farmers has always been kept at a higher level. Contract coordination is an important way to promote the optimization of supply chain. Reasonable contract can stimulate and improve the behavior of all parties in the supply chain. In the case of fuzzy supply, this paper discusses the effects of cost sharing contract, income sharing contract and futures contract on biomass power generation fuel supply chain. In the cost sharing contract, the power plant and middleman actively share the fixed cost of farmers. Farmers can be effectively encouraged to make straw supply behavior to ensure the increase in the amount of straw supply, power plants, middlemen and farmers fuzzy expected income is also increased, but due to the increase of cost sharing, it will increase the risk of power plants or middlemen. The number of contracts will be reduced; In the revenue-sharing contract, the revenue-sharing contract has obvious effect on the stability of the supply chain. After the signing of the revenue-sharing contract, the amount of straw supplied by farmers and the purchase of straw by middlemen are all improved. The cost is the transfer of part of the power generation proceeds; In futures contracts, the supply chain is more stable under the condition of low margin and high purchase price.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F274;F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2321399