【摘要】：隨著市場競爭的加劇和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈理論的深入發(fā)展，傳統(tǒng)管理思想和理論的局限性逐漸顯現(xiàn)。近年來國家對“三農(nóng)”問題的重視和農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化的發(fā)展，使得農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈管理地位日益提升。農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈的發(fā)展水平成為影響經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和保障人民生活水平的重要因素，已得到廣泛關(guān)注。然而農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈環(huán)節(jié)多、鏈條長、整體協(xié)作水平不高以及信息溝通不暢等問題在一定程度上造成了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險的增加。因此，對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險進行分析評價，改善農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈現(xiàn)狀、降低農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險、加強風險防范具有極其重要的意義。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外關(guān)于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險相關(guān)文獻進行了系統(tǒng)梳理，詳細闡述了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險的涵義，在此基礎(chǔ)上對幾種常見的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險評價方法進行了比較選擇，得出直覺模糊層次分析法更適合于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險評價問題的研究；其次，對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈中存在的風險因素進行了較為全面的了解和分析，詳細闡述了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險的構(gòu)成要素，在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了淮北地區(qū)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險評價指標體系；最后，，結(jié)合淮北地區(qū)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈特點運用直覺模糊層次分析法模型進行了實證研究，通過較為準確的計算，確定了淮北地區(qū)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈中各風險因素的權(quán)重，進而針對風險大小提出了淮北地區(qū)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險的路徑選擇。通過結(jié)合淮北地區(qū)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈的實際情況，分析了當前淮北地區(qū)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈的優(yōu)劣勢以及存在的問題，基于風險識別和評價結(jié)果，提出了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險防范的路徑選擇。將直覺模糊層次分析法應用到農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險評價問題上，提高了評價的準確性，為淮北及其他相似地區(qū)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈風險評價及防范，提供現(xiàn)實的指導和借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of market competition and the further development of supply chain theory of agricultural products, the limitation of traditional management thought and theory appears gradually. In recent years, the country attaches importance to the "three rural" problems and the development of agricultural industrialization, which makes the status of supply chain management of agricultural products increasing day by day. The development level of agricultural product supply chain has become an important factor affecting economic development and ensuring people's standard of living. However, the supply chain of agricultural products has many links, long chain, low level of overall cooperation and poor communication of information. To some extent, the risk of agricultural product supply chain is increased. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze and evaluate the risk of agricultural product supply chain, improve the current situation of agricultural product supply chain, reduce the risk of agricultural product supply chain, and strengthen risk prevention. In this paper, firstly, the domestic and foreign literature on supply chain risk of agricultural products is systematically combed, and the meaning of supply chain risk of agricultural products is elaborated in detail. On this basis, several common agricultural product supply chain risk evaluation methods are compared and selected, and it is concluded that intuitive fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is more suitable for agricultural product supply chain risk evaluation. Secondly, The risk factors in the agricultural product supply chain are comprehensively understood and analyzed, and the constituent elements of the agricultural product supply chain risk are elaborated in detail. On this basis, the evaluation index system of the agricultural product supply chain risk in Huaibei region is constructed. Finally, combined with the characteristics of supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area, the paper makes an empirical study by using intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, and determines the weight of each risk factor in supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area by more accurate calculation. And then put forward the path choice of supply chain risk of agricultural products in Huaibei area according to the size of risk. According to the actual situation of supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area, this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages and the existing problems of supply chain of agricultural products in Huaibei area, based on the risk identification and evaluation results. This paper puts forward the path choice of agricultural product supply chain risk prevention. The application of intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to the risk assessment of agricultural product supply chain improves the accuracy of evaluation and provides practical guidance and reference for the risk assessment and prevention of agricultural product supply chain in Huaibei and other similar areas.
【學位授予單位】：河北工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F323.7

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