本文選題：新能源汽車 + 需求預測�。� 參考：《華南理工大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)正處于轉(zhuǎn)型升級的重要戰(zhàn)略機遇期，新能源汽車已成為國際汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主要方向，發(fā)展新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈已成為我國汽車工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的戰(zhàn)略取向。新能源汽車市場需求正逐步形成，企業(yè)著眼未來應加快布局搶占市場，發(fā)展新能源汽車已成為中國汽車企業(yè)發(fā)展的必由之路，我國迎來新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要戰(zhàn)略機遇期。整車制造業(yè)屬于投資建設周期長、技術與資本密集、高度依賴規(guī)模效應的國民經(jīng)濟核心工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)之一，發(fā)展汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)必須立足長遠規(guī)劃，整車企業(yè)發(fā)展新能源汽車與發(fā)展常規(guī)內(nèi)燃汽車有很多共通之處，但兩者又有明顯的區(qū)別，因此研究與之匹配的企業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃理論體系顯得尤為重要。 本文系統(tǒng)地分析了我國新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)政策環(huán)境，分析了全球新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀并指出各項關鍵技術的發(fā)展趨勢。在全球能源危機和環(huán)境保護問題日漸突出的國際大環(huán)境下，發(fā)展新能源汽車已成為國際汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展方向，新一輪技術和產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭已揭開序幕。在我國，，能源緊張和環(huán)境污染問題更加突出，加快培育和發(fā)展新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)，已成為我國政府緩解能源、環(huán)境保護壓力和加快汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級、培育新的增長點的戰(zhàn)略舉措。與傳統(tǒng)車相比，在有財政補貼的情況下，新能源汽車價格與傳統(tǒng)汽車基本持平或者略高，新能源汽車市場推廣所需的充電設施和環(huán)境配套處于建設起步期，中國已初步具備新能源汽車市場高速發(fā)展所需的產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎、市場土壤和政策環(huán)境。 本文以國內(nèi)汽車市場銷售歷史數(shù)據(jù)、新能源汽車銷售數(shù)據(jù)、人均GDP、國民收入、汽車工業(yè)投資額、城鎮(zhèn)化率等國民經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)作為模型的輸入，分別應用了相關性分析、時間序列法、多元回歸模型、指數(shù)平滑法建立數(shù)學模型體系對2014-2020年國內(nèi)新能源汽車銷量進行預測分析，預測未來7年國內(nèi)新能源乘用車和商用車的年度銷量。本文對全球新能源汽車市場推廣商業(yè)模式進行了歸納總結(jié)和對比分析，總結(jié)出四種典型商業(yè)推廣模式，即融資性租賃、經(jīng)營性租賃、買方信貸、以租代購模式。 為建立整車企業(yè)新能源汽車發(fā)展規(guī)劃理論體系，本文基于企業(yè)發(fā)展環(huán)境分析、市場需求預測、商業(yè)模式及企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略定位分析，以穩(wěn)步提升市場占有率為發(fā)展目標，從技術路線、公司戰(zhàn)略、產(chǎn)品策略、商業(yè)模式、制造策略、關鍵零部件配套策略等維度進行系統(tǒng)分析，建立整車企業(yè)新能源汽車發(fā)展規(guī)劃理論體系。建立起規(guī)劃理論體系后，本文選取某整車企業(yè)為實例，應用本文建立的分析方法提出該企業(yè)2014-2020年新能源汽車發(fā)展規(guī)劃方案，為企業(yè)明確公司戰(zhàn)略定位、整合內(nèi)部資源、培育供應鏈體系等實踐行為提供理論支撐和參考。
[Abstract]:The global automobile industry is in the important strategic opportunity period of transformation and upgrading. The new energy automobile has become the main direction of the development of the international automobile industry, and the development of the new energy automobile industry chain has become the strategic orientation of the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry. The new energy automobile market demand is forming step by step, the enterprise should speed up the layout to seize the market in the future, the development of the new energy automobile has become the only way of the development of the Chinese automobile enterprise, our country ushered in the important strategic opportunity period of the development of the new energy automobile industry. The automobile manufacturing industry is one of the core industries of the national economy, which has a long period of investment and construction, technology and capital intensive, and highly dependent on scale effects. The development of the automobile industry must be based on long-term planning. There are many similarities between the development of new energy vehicles and the development of conventional internal combustion vehicles, but there are obvious differences between them, so it is very important to study the theoretical system of enterprise development planning. This paper systematically analyzes the policy environment of China's new energy automobile industry, analyzes the present situation of the development of the global new energy automobile industry and points out the development trend of various key technologies. With the global energy crisis and environmental protection problems becoming increasingly prominent in the international environment, the development of new energy vehicles has become the development direction of the international automobile industry, a new round of technology and industrial competition has been opened. In our country, the problems of energy stress and environmental pollution are more prominent. Speeding up the cultivation and development of new energy automobile industry has become our government to alleviate the pressure of energy, environmental protection and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. A strategic move to foster new growth points. Compared with traditional vehicles, under the condition of financial subsidies, the price of new energy vehicles is basically equal to or slightly higher than that of traditional vehicles, and the charging facilities and environment necessary for the promotion of new energy vehicles are in the initial stage of construction. China already has the industrial foundation, the market soil and the policy environment for the rapid development of the new energy automobile market. Based on the historical data of the domestic automobile market, the new energy vehicle sales data, the per capita GDP, the national income, the investment in the automobile industry, the urbanization rate and other national economic data as the input of the model, this paper applies the correlation analysis, respectively. Time series method, multivariate regression model and exponential smoothing method are used to forecast and analyze the sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2014-2020, and to predict the annual sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles in the next seven years. This paper summarizes and compares the commercial models of the global new energy automobile market, and concludes four typical commercial promotion models, namely, financing lease, operating lease, buyer's credit, and purchasing by lease. In order to set up a new energy vehicle development planning theory system, based on enterprise development environment analysis, market demand prediction, business model and enterprise strategic positioning analysis, this paper aims to steadily increase market share as the development goal, from the technical line, The company strategy, product strategy, business model, manufacturing strategy, key parts matching strategy and other dimensions are systematically analyzed, and the theoretical system of new energy vehicle development planning for the whole vehicle enterprise is established. After the establishment of the planning theory system, this paper selects a whole vehicle enterprise as an example, and applies the analytical method established in this paper to put forward a new energy vehicle development planning plan for the enterprise 2014-2020, so as to define the strategic positioning of the company and integrate the internal resources for the enterprise. To cultivate supply chain system and other practical behaviors to provide theoretical support and reference.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.471

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本文編號：2103025