本文選題：快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈　切入點(diǎn)：壓力測(cè)試　出處：《東華大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著ZARA、HM等國(guó)際服裝品牌進(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng),“快時(shí)尚”成為了中國(guó)服裝行業(yè)發(fā)展的新趨勢(shì),所謂快時(shí)尚品牌,實(shí)際應(yīng)該被稱作“快時(shí)尚零售平價(jià)品牌”�！翱鞎r(shí)尚零售平價(jià)品牌”體現(xiàn)在三方面：顧客用更少的錢得到更時(shí)尚的服裝、產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)周期變快、快時(shí)尚緊跟時(shí)尚潮流。這些“快時(shí)尚”給服裝行業(yè)帶來(lái)的變化對(duì)其供應(yīng)鏈管理提出了新的要求。而我國(guó)的快時(shí)尚企業(yè)卻面臨著前所未有的庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的巨大沖擊。 在日益激烈的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境中,供應(yīng)鏈向著全球的延伸加劇了供應(yīng)鏈的復(fù)雜性以及不穩(wěn)定性,供應(yīng)鏈面臨多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的沖擊。在眾多的不穩(wěn)定性因素中,極端事件極其特殊,其發(fā)生概率小,但極端事件是突發(fā)性,不可預(yù)知的；同時(shí)極端情形的發(fā)生會(huì)給企業(yè)造成巨大的沖擊,直接導(dǎo)致成本增加,利潤(rùn)下滑,生產(chǎn)能力急劇下降甚至生產(chǎn)中斷。 壓力測(cè)試是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的重要工具,是一種以定量分析為主的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法,重點(diǎn)在于通過(guò)設(shè)定壓力情景,利用確定的價(jià)值評(píng)估模型,測(cè)算出研究對(duì)象可能受到的影響或者損失。本文的主要工作是運(yùn)用壓力測(cè)試方法對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估并提出相應(yīng)對(duì)策。通過(guò)壓力清靜的設(shè)定,反映出在極端沖擊模式下,快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈將要面臨的庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文研究了以下核心問(wèn)題： 首先,對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈、壓力測(cè)試和供應(yīng)鏈庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行總結(jié)。通過(guò)對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的整理,歸納出快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈的特點(diǎn),分析供應(yīng)鏈如何運(yùn)作才能夠保障“快”的實(shí)現(xiàn),分析壓力測(cè)試的具體技術(shù)、方法以及應(yīng)用,分析其在供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的可能性,總結(jié)針對(duì)市場(chǎng)需求不確定性較大且必須在銷售確定訂貨量的產(chǎn)品多采用報(bào)童模型確定最有訂購(gòu)量,分析現(xiàn)有的改進(jìn)報(bào)童模型,以助于建立針對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈的報(bào)童模型。 其次針對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈生產(chǎn)提前期長(zhǎng)、銷售周期短、期末未售出產(chǎn)品的殘值低、需求波動(dòng)性強(qiáng)的特點(diǎn),考慮顧客購(gòu)買行為是具有理性的,建立考慮顧客效用下的二次銷售報(bào)童模型。對(duì)于服裝行業(yè),即使期末未售出的產(chǎn)品也仍然有價(jià)值,快時(shí)尚零售商會(huì)采取低價(jià)、反季節(jié)促銷等手段把剩余產(chǎn)品以低于成本的價(jià)格再銷售以減少損失,同理,在打折銷售的時(shí)候顧客仍會(huì)與自己心理價(jià)位進(jìn)行比較從而決定是否購(gòu)買產(chǎn)品。由此,可以建立考慮顧客效用的二次銷售報(bào)童模型。 第三,設(shè)定需求規(guī)模變化為沖擊因子,運(yùn)用壓力測(cè)試法,討論訂購(gòu)量、庫(kù)存受到的影響。根據(jù)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈特點(diǎn),識(shí)別對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)連庫(kù)存造成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的因素,采用考慮顧客效用的二次銷售報(bào)童模型將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素量化,假定極端情況下,快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)連上的零售商要面臨的庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 最后針對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建立仿真模型,結(jié)合對(duì)庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的分析,通過(guò)建立隨機(jī)需求庫(kù)存仿真模型,在構(gòu)建基準(zhǔn)情景的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮需求驟增和驟減對(duì)零售商庫(kù)存成本(缺貨成本)造成的影響。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)可以概括為以下三方面： 在理論研究上,首次將壓力測(cè)試與供應(yīng)鏈庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論相結(jié)合。壓力測(cè)試作為金融行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的工具,近兩年才運(yùn)用到供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理上,是新興的研究方法。 研究?jī)?nèi)容上,目前對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)連庫(kù)存管理的研究很少,本文要針對(duì)快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈的特點(diǎn),考慮到快時(shí)尚供應(yīng)鏈現(xiàn)實(shí)所面臨的庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的角度,量化庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 在研究方法上,構(gòu)建考慮顧客效用的二次銷售報(bào)童模型。目前雖然針對(duì)產(chǎn)品更新速度快,物流運(yùn)作時(shí)間短的要求,過(guò)季產(chǎn)品剩余價(jià)值低產(chǎn)品的報(bào)童模犁有很多擴(kuò)展研究,考慮顧客效用的二次銷售報(bào)童模型有待改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with ZARA, HM and other international clothing brands to enter the market Chinese, "fast fashion" has become a new trend in the development of China garment industry, the so-called fast fashion brand, actually should be called "fast fashion retail brand parity. Fast fashion retail value brand" is embodied in three aspects: customers use less money to get the more fashionable clothing, faster product development cycle, fast fashion fashion trend. These "fast fashion" changes in clothing industry put forward new requirements for supply chain management. And the fast fashion companies in China is facing the huge impact of the risk of unprecedented inventory.
In the increasingly fierce international competition environment, supply chain extension in the global intensified supply chain complexity and instability, the supply chain is facing multiple risk impact. In numerous instability factors, extreme events is very special, the probability is small, but the extreme events is sudden and unpredictable; at the same time extreme situation can cause huge impact to the enterprise, directly lead to increased costs, profits decline, a sharp decline in production capacity and production interruption.
The pressure test is an important tool of risk management, is an analysis method for quantitative analysis of risk, focuses on the scene by setting pressure, using the evaluation model, calculate the object of study can be affected by the loss. The main work of this paper is to use stress testing method of fast fashion supply chain inventory risk assessment and put forward the corresponding countermeasures. By quiet pressure setting, reflected in extreme impact mode, the risk will face fast fashion supply chain inventory. This paper studies the following key problems:
First of all, the fast fashion supply chain, theory of stress testing and risk of supply chain inventory management are summarized. Through the relevant literature on fast fashion supply chain arrangement, summed up the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain, analysis of supply chain management to ensure the implementation of the "fast", analysis of the specific technology of pressure test method and the application in the analysis of the possibility of supply chain risk management, summed up according to the market demand is uncertain and must be in sales to determine the order quantity of products by the newsboy model to determine the order quantity of modified newsboy model existing, in order to help to build fast fashion supply chain newsboy model.
Secondly, fast fashion supply chain production lead time is long, short sales cycle, the final unsold products value is low, demand characteristic of strong volatility, consider the customer purchasing behavior is rational, the establishment of two customer utility sales newsboy model under consideration. For the garment industry, even if the final unsold products are still there the value of fast fashion retailers to low-cost, anti season promotion methods such as the remaining products at below cost to sell in order to reduce losses, similarly, customers will compare to decide whether to purchase the products and their psychological price at the time of sale. Therefore, can set up two sales newsboy model considering customer utility.
Third, set change size as the impact factor, the use of stress testing method, discuss the effect of the order quantity, inventory. According to the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain, identification of fast fashion supply of inventory risk factors, by considering customer utility two sales newsboy model to quantify risk factors, assuming that under extreme conditions the risk, even on fast fashion supply retailers face inventory.
Finally, based on fast fashion supply chain inventory risk simulation model is established, combined with the analysis of inventory risk factors, through the establishment of stochastic demand inventory simulation model, based on the construction of a baseline scenario, consider the demand surge and the sharp drop of the retail inventory cost (cost) effect caused.
The innovation of this article can be summed up in the following three aspects:
In theory research, for the first time, pressure test is combined with supply chain inventory risk management theory. Stress test as a tool of risk management in financial industry has been applied to supply chain risk management in recent two years, which is a new research method.
In terms of content, there are few researches on fast fashion supply chain inventory management. In this paper, we should take account of the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain and take account of the inventory risk faced by fast fashion supply chain, so as to quantify inventory risk.
In research methods, the construction of two sales newsboy model considering customer utility. Although the product update speed, the logistics operation time is short, the newsboy problem model ploughed season products surplus value low product has a lot of extensive research, consider the two customer utility sales newsboy model needs to be improved.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F713.32;F274

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 孟凡波;敏捷虛擬企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量[J];商業(yè)研究;2004年10期

2 周艷菊;邱莞華;王宗潤(rùn);;供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究進(jìn)展的綜述與分析[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2006年03期

3 趙樹(shù)基;從商場(chǎng)進(jìn)貨模型看運(yùn)籌學(xué)報(bào)童模型的缺陷[J];工業(yè)工程;2001年04期

4 賈國(guó)柱;張橙艷;;敏捷供應(yīng)鏈的敏捷性分析[J];工業(yè)工程;2006年04期

5 陳強(qiáng);喬成;;美國(guó)銀行業(yè)壓力測(cè)試最新實(shí)踐的經(jīng)驗(yàn)與啟示[J];國(guó)際金融研究;2009年09期

6 郜利明;;經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期性與壓力測(cè)試中假定性壓力情景的設(shè)定[J];金融管理與研究;2009年02期

7 晚春東;王雅林;齊二石;;供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別與評(píng)估研究綜述[J];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2007年06期

8 張向陽(yáng),楊敏才,劉華明,張曉鳳;供應(yīng)鏈管理中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)與利益分配機(jī)制研究[J];華中科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2004年05期

9 姚衛(wèi)新;游佳敏;;基于壓力測(cè)試的供應(yīng)鏈極端風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法探討[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)緯;2010年05期

10 劉利紅;;金融機(jī)構(gòu)流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)壓力測(cè)試實(shí)證研究——基于中小法人銀行的兩輪效應(yīng)測(cè)試[J];金融與經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年02期

，

本文編號(hào)：1727017