本文選題：供應鏈　切入點：雙邊匯率波動性　出處：《電子科技大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文利用批發(fā)價合同構(gòu)建了一個包含零售商、制造商與供應商的供應鏈運作博弈模型,并在該模型的基礎(chǔ)上進行了擴展(即將單個國外零售商擴展為國外和國內(nèi)兩個零售商),其中制造商面臨著進出口雙邊匯率風險�；趦蓚�模型均衡及相應的比較靜態(tài)分析,研究了雙邊匯率波動性及其相關(guān)性結(jié)構(gòu)對供應鏈節(jié)點企業(yè)運作變量的波動性、期望業(yè)績和業(yè)績波動性的影響,并給出了影響節(jié)點企業(yè)之間相對風險承擔的因素。結(jié)果表明:(1)當進出口匯率波動負相關(guān)時,隨著進(出)口匯率波動性程度的增加,有(1-a)供應商和國外零售商運作變量的波動性、期望業(yè)績和業(yè)績方差,制造商對供應商和國外零售商的均批發(fā)價方差,制造商的期望業(yè)績和業(yè)績方差均增加;(1-b)制造商對國內(nèi)零售商的均衡批發(fā)價方差,國內(nèi)零售商運作變量的波動性、期望業(yè)績和業(yè)績方差均先降低后增加,此時風險傳導呈現(xiàn)出U-型特征;(2)當進出口匯率波動正相關(guān)時,隨著進(出)口匯率波動性程度的增加,有(2-a)供應商和國外零售商運作變量的波動性、期望業(yè)績和業(yè)績方差,制造商對供應商和國外零售商的均衡批發(fā)價方差,制造商的期望業(yè)績和業(yè)績方差均先降低后增加,此時風險傳導也呈現(xiàn)出U-型特征;(2-b)制造商對國內(nèi)零售商的均衡批發(fā)價方差,國內(nèi)零售商運作變量的波動性、期望業(yè)績和業(yè)績方差均增加;(3)在基礎(chǔ)模型中,供應鏈節(jié)點企業(yè)之間的風險承擔水平(用利潤方差之比測度)取決于各自的決策靈活性,與匯率波動的相關(guān)性無關(guān)。這些結(jié)果,從理論上可以克服“價格傳導方面的研究局限于識別匯率風險的單向傳導”和“供應鏈管理文獻只考慮匯率風險對供應鏈節(jié)點運作決策的影響而缺乏對匯率風險的傳導機理和相應結(jié)果的研究”這兩個缺陷;同時也可以為實踐中供應鏈節(jié)點企業(yè)的決策者評估由于匯率波動而導致的風險和識別風險承擔水平的影響因素提供一個參考。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a game model of supply chain operation involving retailers, manufacturers and suppliers is constructed by means of wholesale price contract.On the basis of this model, we extend the model (that is to say, a single foreign retailer is extended to two foreign and domestic retailers, in which manufacturers are faced with the risk of bilateral exchange rate of import and export.Based on the equilibrium of the two models and the comparative static analysis, the effects of bilateral exchange rate volatility and its correlation structure on the volatility, expected performance and performance volatility of supply chain node firms are studied.The factors that affect the relative risk assumption among nodal enterprises are also given.The results show that when import and export exchange rate fluctuations are negatively correlated, there is a volatility of operational variables, expected performance and performance variance of suppliers and foreign retailers with the increase of exchange rate volatility.The average wholesale price variance of manufacturers to suppliers and foreign retailers, the expected performance and performance variance of manufacturers increase 1-b) the equilibrium wholesale price variance of manufacturers to domestic retailers, and the volatility of domestic retailers' operational variables.Expected performance and performance variance decrease first and then increase. At this time, risk conduction presents a U- type characteristic. When import and export exchange rate fluctuations are positively correlated, the degree of exchange rate volatility increases with the increase of entry / exit exchange rate volatility.The volatility of operating variables of suppliers and foreign retailers, the variance of expected performance and performance, the equilibrium wholesale price variance of manufacturers to suppliers and foreign retailers, the expected performance and variance of manufacturers decrease first and then increase.At this time, risk transmission also presents U- type characteristics: the equilibrium wholesale price variance of manufacturers to domestic retailers, the volatility of domestic retailers' operational variables, and the increase of expected performance and performance variance in the basic model.The risk-bearing level (measured by the ratio of profit variance) between supply chain node enterprises depends on their decision flexibility and has nothing to do with the correlation of exchange rate fluctuations.These results,Theoretically, it can be overcome that the research on price transmission is limited to the one-way transmission of identifying exchange rate risk "and" supply chain management literature only considers the influence of exchange rate risk on the operational decision of supply chain node, but lacks of exchange rate risk.The two defects are the study of the conduction mechanism and the corresponding results.At the same time, it can also provide a reference for decision makers of supply chain node enterprises to evaluate the risk caused by exchange rate fluctuation and identify the risk bearing level in practice.
【學位授予單位】：電子科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F274;F832.6;F752.6

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