本文關(guān)鍵詞： 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo) 交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì) 運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ATO　出處：《東北大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是在經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易活動(dòng)中,由交貨所帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。遲交貨和驗(yàn)收不合格是交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要表現(xiàn)形式。在供應(yīng)鏈環(huán)境下,個(gè)別企業(yè)交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的發(fā)生不僅會(huì)造成交貨企業(yè)承擔(dān)違約賠償,而且可能導(dǎo)致其下游企業(yè)因零部件或原材料供應(yīng)不及時(shí)而影響生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的完成,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)成品的交貨延遲,甚至造成整條供應(yīng)鏈的生產(chǎn)停滯,造成訂單和利益損失,使供應(yīng)鏈在激烈競爭的環(huán)境下喪失競爭優(yōu)勢(shì),因此有必要對(duì)交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行研究。交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是對(duì)發(fā)生的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件進(jìn)行識(shí)別、評(píng)估和應(yīng)對(duì),以最大程度的降低交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn),規(guī)避由此帶來的各方面損失。在傳統(tǒng)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究中,較少關(guān)注風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)對(duì)交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響,特別是考慮物流運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的研究,而是從單個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)去進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。這樣既不能從根本上解決問題,層層進(jìn)行交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制也造成產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)鏈成本的增加。鑒于此,有必要針對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)情形下的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究,形成一套科學(xué)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法,以最大限度的降低交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提高供應(yīng)鏈的競爭力。本文在總結(jié)分析交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與應(yīng)對(duì)問題的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)下的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問題進(jìn)行了較為深入的研究,主要開展了以下四方面的研究工作：(1)提煉了運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)下交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問題。通過對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈環(huán)境下的交貨問題的實(shí)際背景分析,本文從物流運(yùn)輸角度提煉了考慮運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估以及應(yīng)對(duì)問題。(2)提出了考慮運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法。針對(duì)運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)環(huán)境下的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估給出了基于故障樹分析法的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法。(3)提出了綜合考慮多因素的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略選擇方法。針對(duì)ATO企業(yè)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)問題,從物流運(yùn)輸角度給出了綜合考慮多因素的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略組合的優(yōu)化模型。首先,針對(duì)交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件給出對(duì)應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略集合；然后,構(gòu)建多目標(biāo)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略優(yōu)化模型；最后,進(jìn)行模型求解,得到最優(yōu)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)集合。(4)給出了本文提出方法的潛在應(yīng)用研究。以往復(fù)式活塞壓縮機(jī)交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理為例,給出了基于故障樹分析法的交貨評(píng)估方法以及綜合考慮多目標(biāo)的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略優(yōu)選方法,驗(yàn)證了本文提出方法的實(shí)用性與合理性。本文提出的考慮運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的ATO交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與應(yīng)對(duì)策略選擇方法研究,為解決風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)環(huán)境下交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題提供了可參考的方法或途徑,為相關(guān)研究奠定了基礎(chǔ),亦能夠幫助決策者及時(shí)選擇合適的交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案組合,以最大程度降低交貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件所造成的損失。
[Abstract]:Delivery risk is the risk brought by delivery in economic and trade activities. Late delivery and unqualified acceptance are the main forms of delivery risk. The occurrence of individual enterprises' delivery risk will not only cause the delivery enterprises to bear the compensation for breach of contract, but also may cause the downstream enterprises to affect the completion of the production plan due to the untimely supply of parts and raw materials. This leads to the delay of the delivery of finished products, even the stagnation of the whole supply chain, the loss of orders and interests, and the loss of the competitive advantage of the supply chain in the environment of fierce competition. Therefore, it is necessary to study the delivery risk management, which is to identify, evaluate and respond to the occurrence of the delivery risk events in order to minimize the delivery risk. In the traditional research of delivery risk management, less attention is paid to the impact of risk transmission on delivery risk, especially the study of logistics transportation risk transmission. But from a single node to carry out risk management. This not only can not fundamentally solve the problem, layer by layer of delivery risk control also lead to the increase of product supply chain cost. In view of this. It is necessary to study the risk management of delivery risk under the condition of risk transmission, and form a set of scientific delivery risk management method to minimize the risk of delivery. Based on the summary and analysis of the delivery risk assessment and response, this paper makes a deep study on the delivery risk management under the transport risk transmission. This paper mainly carries out the following four aspects of research work: 1) refining the transportation risk transmission delivery risk management problem. Through the supply chain environment of the delivery of the actual background analysis. From the perspective of logistics transportation, this paper abstracts the delivery risk assessment considering transport risk transmission and how to deal with the problem. This paper puts forward a method of risk assessment of delivery based on transportation risk transmission, and presents a method of risk assessment of delivery based on fault tree analysis for the risk assessment of delivery under the environment of transport risk transmission. This paper puts forward a comprehensive consideration of the multiple factors of the delivery risk strategy selection method, aiming at the ATO enterprise delivery risk response. From the perspective of logistics and transportation, the optimization model of the combination of delivery risk strategies considering multiple factors is given. Firstly, the corresponding risk response strategy set is given for the delivery risk events. Then, a multi-objective optimization model of delivery risk strategy is constructed. Finally, the model is solved to get the optimal delivery risk response set. 4) the potential application of the proposed method is given. Taking the reciprocating piston compressor delivery risk management as an example. The method of delivery evaluation based on fault tree analysis and the optimal selection of delivery risk strategy considering multi-objective are presented. The practicability and reasonableness of the proposed method are verified. The method of ATO delivery risk assessment and strategy selection considering transport risk transmission is proposed in this paper. It provides a reference method or approach to solve the problem of delivery risk in the environment of risk transmission, lays a foundation for relevant research, and can help decision makers to select the appropriate portfolio of delivery risk response schemes in time. The loss caused by the event to minimize the risk of delivery.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.4;F252

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本文編號(hào)：1446482