基于統(tǒng)計(jì)模型與現(xiàn)場(chǎng)試驗(yàn)的白龍江中游滑坡敏感性分析研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-07 08:47
【摘要】：甘肅南部白龍江流域是我國(guó)滑坡泥石流災(zāi)害四大高發(fā)區(qū)之一,滑坡泥石流災(zāi)害嚴(yán)重地制約了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。然而,白龍江流域基于比較和組合不同統(tǒng)計(jì)模型的滑坡敏感性評(píng)價(jià)研究存在很大不足,特別是缺少利用降雨條件下滑坡觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證敏感性評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果,以及缺乏利用現(xiàn)場(chǎng)試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)彌補(bǔ)敏感性評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)滑坡物理力學(xué)過(guò)程解釋能力不足的研究。為了給白龍江流域土地利用規(guī)劃和災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供更為可靠的定量化依據(jù),推動(dòng)滑坡敏感性評(píng)價(jià)方法學(xué)研究的發(fā)展,并進(jìn)一步為建設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)適用和有效可靠的區(qū)域滑坡監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警體系提供理論依據(jù)和實(shí)際指導(dǎo),本論文開(kāi)展了對(duì)白龍江中游(舟曲-武都段)"5.12"地震前后滑坡空間分布與地形、地質(zhì)、水文氣象和人類活動(dòng)等影響要素間關(guān)系定量分析研究,進(jìn)行了基于比較和組合多種不同類型統(tǒng)計(jì)模型的區(qū)域滑坡敏感性優(yōu)化評(píng)價(jià)研究,以及開(kāi)展長(zhǎng)歷時(shí)、高頻率人工降雨事件和多種監(jiān)測(cè)手段下的典型滑坡現(xiàn)場(chǎng)試驗(yàn)的敏感性分析研究。取得了以下三個(gè)主要研究成果:(1)軟弱地層巖性和發(fā)育斷裂構(gòu)造是白龍江中游滑坡最為重要的孕育要素,降雨和地震是滑坡最為重要的誘發(fā)因子。"5.12"地震前后滑坡在不同影響因子級(jí)別間的分布數(shù)量和面積發(fā)育率的分布規(guī)律基本類似。受地震波在山區(qū)斜坡放大效應(yīng)的影響,地震誘發(fā)滑坡在海拔較高和坡度較陡斜坡相對(duì)分布較多。(2)為進(jìn)一步定量表達(dá)滑坡與影響要素間關(guān)系,深化理解滑坡機(jī)理,開(kāi)展了不同類型統(tǒng)計(jì)模型的滑坡敏感性評(píng)價(jià)的比較研究。結(jié)果表明半定量AHP(層次分析法)和多元LR(邏輯回歸)具有較好解釋能力,而人工智能ANN(人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò))和SVM(支持向量機(jī))具有較好的空間分區(qū)和預(yù)測(cè)能力。為有效結(jié)合不同統(tǒng)計(jì)模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn),提出了在比較不同模型的基礎(chǔ)上,將專家知識(shí)和統(tǒng)計(jì)方法相結(jié)合建立組合模型的新策略,進(jìn)一步考慮敏感性評(píng)價(jià)中錯(cuò)誤分類造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本損失,提出了將成本曲線和組合模型相結(jié)合建立滑坡敏感性優(yōu)化評(píng)價(jià)模型的方法。研究結(jié)果表明,組合模型可極大程度提高模型的分區(qū)能力和評(píng)價(jià)精度以及降低不確定性,結(jié)合成本曲線建立的敏感性優(yōu)化評(píng)價(jià)可更好的服務(wù)于土地利用規(guī)劃。(3)為彌補(bǔ)基于統(tǒng)計(jì)模型滑坡敏感性評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)降雨條件下的滑坡物理力學(xué)過(guò)程表達(dá)的不足,并填補(bǔ)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)敏感性評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果驗(yàn)證研究的空白,選擇典型堆積層滑坡開(kāi)展現(xiàn)場(chǎng)人工降雨模擬試驗(yàn)研究。結(jié)果表明,在降雨條件下,堆積層滑坡內(nèi)部孔隙水壓力、含水量、土壓力、深部位移等指標(biāo)對(duì)降雨有較為迅速的響應(yīng),這種快速響應(yīng)主要是受裂縫、裂隙和大孔隙等優(yōu)勢(shì)入滲通道控制的,并且水分空間遷移過(guò)程可以通過(guò)高密度電法手段進(jìn)行有效監(jiān)測(cè);堆積層斜坡的變形破壞機(jī)制可概化為:降雨入滲誘發(fā)變形-加速變形誘發(fā)剪脹強(qiáng)化-重新固結(jié)使孔隙水壓力恢復(fù)和強(qiáng)度降低;土壓力是對(duì)淺層堆積層滑坡變形最為敏感的指示因子,可作為白龍江流域廣泛分布的淺層堆積層滑坡的關(guān)鍵監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警指標(biāo);將土壓力和位移加速度相結(jié)合,建立了堆積層滑坡啟動(dòng)的閾值指標(biāo)體系,可為該區(qū)堆積層滑坡預(yù)警提供科學(xué)指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:The BaiLongjiang river basin in the southern part of Gansu is one of the four major high-risk areas of the landslide and debris flow disaster in China, and the landslide and debris flow disasters severely restrict the social and economic development. However, the study of landslide sensitivity evaluation based on the comparison and combination of different statistical models in the Bailong River basin is not enough, especially the results of the sensitivity evaluation of the landslide observation data under the condition of rainfall. And the lack of the on-site test data to make up for the sensitivity evaluation to the lack of the interpretation ability of the physical and mechanical process of the landslide. In order to provide a more reliable and quantitative basis for the land use planning and disaster risk management of the Bailong River basin, the development of the methodology for evaluating the sensitivity of the landslide is promoted. In order to provide the theoretical basis and practical guidance for the construction of the economic application and the effective and reliable regional landslide monitoring and early warning system, the paper has carried out the spatial distribution of the landslide before and after the "5.12" of the middle reaches of the Bailong River (the Zhouqu-Wudu section) and the terrain and geology. Based on the quantitative analysis of the relationship between the factors such as hydrometeorological and human activities, the sensitivity optimization and evaluation of regional landslide based on the comparison and combination of different types of statistical models are carried out, and the long duration is carried out. Sensitivity analysis of typical landslide field tests under high frequency artificial rainfall events and various monitoring methods. The following three main research results have been obtained: (1) The structure of the weak formation lithology and the development fracture is the most important element of the landslide in the middle reaches of the Bailong River, and the rainfall and the earthquake are the most important inducing factors of the landslide. 5.12 The distribution of the number and area development rate of the landslide before and after the earthquake is similar to that of the area development rate. The earthquake-induced landslide is more and more distributed at higher elevation and steep slope due to the effect of the seismic wave on the slope amplification of the mountain area. (2) To further quantitatively express the relationship between the landslide and the influence factors, deepen the understanding of the landslide mechanism, and carry out the comparative study of the landslide sensitivity evaluation of different types of statistical models. The results show that the semi-quantitative AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and the multiple LR (logistic regression) have better interpretation capability, and the artificial intelligence (artificial neural network) and the SVM (support vector machine) have better spatial partitioning and prediction capability. in order to effectively combine the advantages of different statistical models, a new strategy of combining the expert knowledge and the statistical method on the basis of comparing different models is put forward, and the economic cost loss caused by the error classification in the sensitivity evaluation is further taken into account, The method of combining cost curve and combined model to establish the evaluation model of landslide sensitivity is put forward. The results show that the combination model can greatly improve the partition ability and the evaluation precision of the model and reduce the uncertainty, and the sensitivity optimization evaluation based on the cost curve can better serve the land-use planning. (3) In order to make up for the deficiency of the statistical model landslide sensitivity evaluation on the physical and mechanical process of the landslide under the rainfall condition, and to fill the blank of the field observation data on the verification of the sensitivity evaluation result, a typical pile-up landslide is selected to carry out the on-site artificial rainfall simulation test study. The results show that, under the condition of rainfall, the internal pore water pressure, water content, soil pressure and deep displacement of the accumulative landslide have a relatively rapid response to the rainfall, which is mainly controlled by the dominant infiltration channels such as cracks, cracks and large pores. and the deformation and failure mechanism of the build-up slope can be generalized as follows: rainfall infiltration-induced deformation-accelerated deformation-induced shear-expansion strengthening-reconsolidation, and the pore water pressure recovery and the strength are reduced; The soil pressure is the most sensitive indicator for the landslide deformation of the shallow-layer stack, which can be used as the key monitoring and early warning index of the shallow-layer stack landslide which is widely distributed in the Bailong River basin, and the threshold index system for the initiation of the build-up landslide is established by the combination of the earth pressure and the displacement acceleration. It can provide scientific guidance for the early warning of the accumulation of the deposit in this area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P642.22
本文編號(hào)：2494667
[Abstract]:The BaiLongjiang river basin in the southern part of Gansu is one of the four major high-risk areas of the landslide and debris flow disaster in China, and the landslide and debris flow disasters severely restrict the social and economic development. However, the study of landslide sensitivity evaluation based on the comparison and combination of different statistical models in the Bailong River basin is not enough, especially the results of the sensitivity evaluation of the landslide observation data under the condition of rainfall. And the lack of the on-site test data to make up for the sensitivity evaluation to the lack of the interpretation ability of the physical and mechanical process of the landslide. In order to provide a more reliable and quantitative basis for the land use planning and disaster risk management of the Bailong River basin, the development of the methodology for evaluating the sensitivity of the landslide is promoted. In order to provide the theoretical basis and practical guidance for the construction of the economic application and the effective and reliable regional landslide monitoring and early warning system, the paper has carried out the spatial distribution of the landslide before and after the "5.12" of the middle reaches of the Bailong River (the Zhouqu-Wudu section) and the terrain and geology. Based on the quantitative analysis of the relationship between the factors such as hydrometeorological and human activities, the sensitivity optimization and evaluation of regional landslide based on the comparison and combination of different types of statistical models are carried out, and the long duration is carried out. Sensitivity analysis of typical landslide field tests under high frequency artificial rainfall events and various monitoring methods. The following three main research results have been obtained: (1) The structure of the weak formation lithology and the development fracture is the most important element of the landslide in the middle reaches of the Bailong River, and the rainfall and the earthquake are the most important inducing factors of the landslide. 5.12 The distribution of the number and area development rate of the landslide before and after the earthquake is similar to that of the area development rate. The earthquake-induced landslide is more and more distributed at higher elevation and steep slope due to the effect of the seismic wave on the slope amplification of the mountain area. (2) To further quantitatively express the relationship between the landslide and the influence factors, deepen the understanding of the landslide mechanism, and carry out the comparative study of the landslide sensitivity evaluation of different types of statistical models. The results show that the semi-quantitative AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and the multiple LR (logistic regression) have better interpretation capability, and the artificial intelligence (artificial neural network) and the SVM (support vector machine) have better spatial partitioning and prediction capability. in order to effectively combine the advantages of different statistical models, a new strategy of combining the expert knowledge and the statistical method on the basis of comparing different models is put forward, and the economic cost loss caused by the error classification in the sensitivity evaluation is further taken into account, The method of combining cost curve and combined model to establish the evaluation model of landslide sensitivity is put forward. The results show that the combination model can greatly improve the partition ability and the evaluation precision of the model and reduce the uncertainty, and the sensitivity optimization evaluation based on the cost curve can better serve the land-use planning. (3) In order to make up for the deficiency of the statistical model landslide sensitivity evaluation on the physical and mechanical process of the landslide under the rainfall condition, and to fill the blank of the field observation data on the verification of the sensitivity evaluation result, a typical pile-up landslide is selected to carry out the on-site artificial rainfall simulation test study. The results show that, under the condition of rainfall, the internal pore water pressure, water content, soil pressure and deep displacement of the accumulative landslide have a relatively rapid response to the rainfall, which is mainly controlled by the dominant infiltration channels such as cracks, cracks and large pores. and the deformation and failure mechanism of the build-up slope can be generalized as follows: rainfall infiltration-induced deformation-accelerated deformation-induced shear-expansion strengthening-reconsolidation, and the pore water pressure recovery and the strength are reduced; The soil pressure is the most sensitive indicator for the landslide deformation of the shallow-layer stack, which can be used as the key monitoring and early warning index of the shallow-layer stack landslide which is widely distributed in the Bailong River basin, and the threshold index system for the initiation of the build-up landslide is established by the combination of the earth pressure and the displacement acceleration. It can provide scientific guidance for the early warning of the accumulation of the deposit in this area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P642.22
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