系統(tǒng)可靠性分析中環(huán)境因子評估方法研究及軟件實現(xiàn)
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-08 21:14
【摘要】：高可靠長壽命產(chǎn)品的可靠性分析和壽命預(yù)測是一個熱點問題,如何獲得其工作環(huán)境下足夠多的壽命數(shù)據(jù)是難點,也是今后一個重要的研究方向。經(jīng)過研究表明,通過加速壽命試驗在可高應(yīng)力環(huán)境下可獲得更多的產(chǎn)品數(shù)據(jù),環(huán)境因子可解決如何將高應(yīng)力環(huán)境下的數(shù)據(jù)折算至正常工作環(huán)境下的問題,用環(huán)境因子按照一定的折算原則對數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行折算,可擴(kuò)充高可靠長壽命產(chǎn)品在工作環(huán)境下的數(shù)據(jù)信息,得到的數(shù)據(jù)可用來對產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行可靠性分析或壽命預(yù)測等。本文主要研究環(huán)境因子的估計方法,重點討論基于產(chǎn)品性能退化數(shù)據(jù)的環(huán)境因子的估計問題、基于多溫度條件下產(chǎn)品性能退化數(shù)據(jù)的環(huán)境因子的預(yù)測問題和基于環(huán)境因子的壽命預(yù)測問題。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容和成果如下:1、基于性能退化試驗的環(huán)境因子的評估。本文討論了性能退化試驗相較傳統(tǒng)的壽命試驗的優(yōu)勢,對性能退化試驗中定數(shù)截尾試驗和定時截尾試驗做了詳細(xì)介紹,并對性能退化數(shù)據(jù)的特點進(jìn)行了研究,說明了用性能退化數(shù)據(jù)估計環(huán)境因子的合理性。本文結(jié)合試驗數(shù)據(jù)的分布,采用最佳線性估計法(BLUE)對環(huán)境因子進(jìn)行估算,并舉例詳細(xì)的介紹了估算過程。2、基于性能退化數(shù)據(jù)和加速壽命試驗的環(huán)境因子評估。本文利用產(chǎn)品在高應(yīng)力下加劇退化的特性,研究了定數(shù)截尾情況下,將性能退化試驗與加速壽命試驗相結(jié)合來估計環(huán)境因子的方法。由于本文僅考慮溫度應(yīng)力,所以在性能退化數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,給出了基于阿倫尼斯(Arrhenius)模型建立環(huán)境因子估計模型和模型參數(shù)的估計方法。為說本文提出的方法的精度,給出了一種新的驗證方法。經(jīng)過實例驗證發(fā)現(xiàn),此方法得到的環(huán)境因子具有較高的精度。3、基于環(huán)境因子的壽命預(yù)測。通過加速壽命試驗獲可得高應(yīng)力條件下產(chǎn)品的性能退化數(shù)據(jù),本文基于這些數(shù)據(jù)給出了新的壽命預(yù)測方法。本文先通過環(huán)境因子的估計模型預(yù)測工作條件下的環(huán)境因子,接著估計產(chǎn)品在工作環(huán)境下的性能退化數(shù)據(jù),利用產(chǎn)品在工作溫度下的原有數(shù)據(jù)對折算后的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行修正,經(jīng)過與原有數(shù)據(jù)的不斷綜合,最終可獲得工作環(huán)境下性能退化數(shù)據(jù)。當(dāng)工作溫度下有一組產(chǎn)品樣本時,結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)的分布信息估計產(chǎn)品的平均壽命;當(dāng)工作溫度下僅有單個樣本時,估計此樣本的失效壽命。最后通過實例詳細(xì)的介紹了估算過程,并給出了估計結(jié)果,證明了方法的可行性。4、環(huán)境因子估計和壽命預(yù)測的軟件設(shè)計。本文基于MATLAB軟件完成了環(huán)境因子的估計系統(tǒng),實現(xiàn)了基于環(huán)境因子的產(chǎn)品估計過程,并具有獲得數(shù)據(jù)退化軌跡,驗證數(shù)據(jù)分布、計算偽失效壽命,估計結(jié)果驗證等功能。
[Abstract]:The reliability analysis and life prediction of high reliability and long life products is a hot issue. How to obtain enough life data in its working environment is a difficult point and an important research direction in the future. The research shows that through accelerated life test more product data can be obtained under high stress environment, and environmental factors can solve the problem of how to convert data under high stress environment to normal working environment. Using environmental factors to convert data according to certain conversion principle can expand the data information of high reliability and long life products in the working environment. The obtained data can be used for reliability analysis or life prediction of products. In this paper, we mainly study the estimation method of environmental factors, and focus on the estimation of environmental factors based on product performance degradation data. The environmental factor prediction problem and the life prediction problem based on the environmental factor under the multi-temperature condition of product performance degradation data are discussed. The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: 1. Evaluation of environmental factors based on performance degradation test. In this paper, the advantages of performance degradation test compared with traditional life test are discussed, and the characteristic of performance degradation data is studied. The rationality of using performance degradation data to estimate environmental factors is explained. Combined with the distribution of test data, the best linear estimation method (BLUE) is used to estimate the environmental factors, and an example is given to illustrate the estimation process of environmental factors based on the performance degradation data and accelerated life test. In this paper, the method of estimating environmental factors by combining performance degradation test with accelerated life test under the condition of constant truncation is studied by using the characteristics of product degradation under high stress. Since only the temperature stress is considered in this paper, based on the performance degradation data, an estimation method of environmental factor estimation model and model parameters based on Arrhenis (Arrhenius) model is presented. In order to describe the accuracy of the proposed method, a new verification method is presented. An example shows that the environmental factor obtained by this method has a high accuracy of. 3, and the life prediction based on the environmental factor. The data of product degradation under high stress are obtained by accelerated life test. Based on these data, a new life prediction method is presented in this paper. In this paper, the environmental factors under working conditions are predicted by the estimation model of environmental factors, and then the performance degradation data of the products under working environment are estimated, and the converted data are corrected by using the original data of the products at the working temperature. After continuous synthesis with the original data, the performance degradation data under the working environment can be obtained. When there is a set of product samples at the working temperature, the average life of the product is estimated by combining the distribution information of the data, and the failure life of the sample is estimated when there is only a single sample at the working temperature. Finally, the estimation process is introduced in detail through an example, and the estimation results are given. The feasibility of the method. 4, the software design of environmental factor estimation and life prediction are proved. In this paper, an environmental factor estimation system based on MATLAB software is developed, and the process of product estimation based on environmental factor is realized. It has the functions of obtaining data degradation trajectory, verifying data distribution, calculating pseudo-failure life, and validating the result of estimation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TB114.3
本文編號：2231719
[Abstract]:The reliability analysis and life prediction of high reliability and long life products is a hot issue. How to obtain enough life data in its working environment is a difficult point and an important research direction in the future. The research shows that through accelerated life test more product data can be obtained under high stress environment, and environmental factors can solve the problem of how to convert data under high stress environment to normal working environment. Using environmental factors to convert data according to certain conversion principle can expand the data information of high reliability and long life products in the working environment. The obtained data can be used for reliability analysis or life prediction of products. In this paper, we mainly study the estimation method of environmental factors, and focus on the estimation of environmental factors based on product performance degradation data. The environmental factor prediction problem and the life prediction problem based on the environmental factor under the multi-temperature condition of product performance degradation data are discussed. The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: 1. Evaluation of environmental factors based on performance degradation test. In this paper, the advantages of performance degradation test compared with traditional life test are discussed, and the characteristic of performance degradation data is studied. The rationality of using performance degradation data to estimate environmental factors is explained. Combined with the distribution of test data, the best linear estimation method (BLUE) is used to estimate the environmental factors, and an example is given to illustrate the estimation process of environmental factors based on the performance degradation data and accelerated life test. In this paper, the method of estimating environmental factors by combining performance degradation test with accelerated life test under the condition of constant truncation is studied by using the characteristics of product degradation under high stress. Since only the temperature stress is considered in this paper, based on the performance degradation data, an estimation method of environmental factor estimation model and model parameters based on Arrhenis (Arrhenius) model is presented. In order to describe the accuracy of the proposed method, a new verification method is presented. An example shows that the environmental factor obtained by this method has a high accuracy of. 3, and the life prediction based on the environmental factor. The data of product degradation under high stress are obtained by accelerated life test. Based on these data, a new life prediction method is presented in this paper. In this paper, the environmental factors under working conditions are predicted by the estimation model of environmental factors, and then the performance degradation data of the products under working environment are estimated, and the converted data are corrected by using the original data of the products at the working temperature. After continuous synthesis with the original data, the performance degradation data under the working environment can be obtained. When there is a set of product samples at the working temperature, the average life of the product is estimated by combining the distribution information of the data, and the failure life of the sample is estimated when there is only a single sample at the working temperature. Finally, the estimation process is introduced in detail through an example, and the estimation results are given. The feasibility of the method. 4, the software design of environmental factor estimation and life prediction are proved. In this paper, an environmental factor estimation system based on MATLAB software is developed, and the process of product estimation based on environmental factor is realized. It has the functions of obtaining data degradation trajectory, verifying data distribution, calculating pseudo-failure life, and validating the result of estimation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TB114.3
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