發(fā)布時間：2018-06-26 01:20

  本文選題：滑坡易發(fā)性評估 + 地震滑坡��； 參考：《地球信息科學學報》2017年12期

【摘要】：Newmark位移模型是研究地震滑坡易發(fā)性的經(jīng)典模型,機器學習方法支持向量機模型也越來越多的應用到滑坡易發(fā)性評估研究。本文將Newmark位移模型與支持向量機模型相結合,建立基于物理機理的地震滑坡易發(fā)性評估模型并應用于2008年汶川地震重災區(qū)汶川縣。從震后遙感影像目視解譯出汶川縣1900處地震誘發(fā)滑坡,并將其隨機劃分為70%的訓練數(shù)據(jù)集和30%的驗證數(shù)據(jù)集。選擇地形起伏度、坡度、地形曲率、與構造斷裂帶距離、與水系距離、與道路距離6個因子與Newmark位移值共同作為地震滑坡易發(fā)性影響因素。利用ROC曲線和模型不確定性等指標對模型結果進行評估,并與二元統(tǒng)計模型頻率比和多元統(tǒng)計模型Logistic回歸的結果進行對比。結果表明:與頻率比和Logistic回歸模型相比,支持向量機模型的正確率最高,訓練集和驗證集ROC曲線下的面積分別為0.876和0.851。將模型應用于繪制汶川縣地震滑坡易發(fā)性圖,結果顯示滑坡易發(fā)性圖與實際的滑坡點位分布一致性較高,有80.4%的滑坡位于極高和高易發(fā)區(qū)。這說明支持向量機與Newmark位移方法結合建立的地震滑坡易發(fā)性評估模型有較高的預測價值,可以為滑坡風險評估和管理提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Newmark displacement model is a classical model to study the vulnerability of earthquake landslide. The machine learning method support vector machine model is applied more and more to the evaluation of landslide vulnerability. In this paper, the Newmark displacement model and support vector machine model are combined to establish the earthquake landslide vulnerability assessment model based on physical mechanism and applied to Wenchuan county in Wenchuan earthquake disaster area in 2008. 1900 earthquake induced landslides in Wenchuan County were visually interpreted from the remote sensing images after the earthquake, and were randomly divided into 70% training data set and 30% validation data set. Six factors, such as terrain fluctuation, slope, topographic curvature, distance from tectonic fault zone, distance from water system, distance from road to road, and displacement value of Newmark, are selected as influencing factors of earthquake landslide susceptibility. ROC curve and model uncertainty were used to evaluate the model results, and the results were compared with the frequency ratio of binary statistical model and logistic regression of multivariate statistical model. The results show that the accuracy of SVM model is the highest compared with frequency ratio and logistic regression model. The area under ROC curve of training set and verification set are 0.876 and 0.851 respectively. The model is applied to draw the landslide susceptibility map of Wenchuan County. The results show that the landslide susceptibility map is consistent with the actual landslide location distribution, and 80.4% of the landslides are located in extremely high and high prone areas. This shows that the model of earthquake landslide vulnerability assessment based on support vector machine and Newmark displacement method has high predictive value and can provide basis for landslide risk assessment and management.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學環(huán)境演變與自然災害教育部重點實驗室;北京師范大學減災與應急管理研究院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(41271544) 地表過程模型與模擬創(chuàng)新研究群體科學基金(41621061) 國家重點研發(fā)計劃專項項目(2016YFA0602403)
【分類號】：P642.22

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 李樹德,任秀生,岳升陽,徐海鵬;地震滑坡研究[J];水土保持研究;2001年02期

2 陳曉利;王U，

本文編號：2068401