本文選題：多元性能參數(shù) + 加速退化試驗��； 參考：《浙江理工大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著科學技術的發(fā)展和加工工藝的不斷提高，許多產(chǎn)品都具有高可靠、長壽命的特點，造成基于失效數(shù)據(jù)的可靠性評估和壽命預測愈加困難，加速退化試驗能利用性能退化數(shù)據(jù)的信息，從而為解決這些產(chǎn)品可靠性評估和壽命預測提供有效手段。目前關于性能退化試驗的研究大多數(shù)針對單個性能參數(shù)展開，但在實際工程中，許多復雜產(chǎn)品已不能以單一的性能參數(shù)來判斷其是否滿足正常工作需求，而且產(chǎn)品多個性能參數(shù)退化數(shù)據(jù)間存在一定的相關性，需要合理的建立其相關模式。Copula函數(shù)作為一種靈活、穩(wěn)健的相關性分析工具，在分析變量間相關性時具有諸多的優(yōu)點。因此，本文基于Copula函數(shù)對多性能參數(shù)產(chǎn)品的可靠性建模、數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析方法、可靠性評估和壽命預測展開研究。論文主要工作如下： 首先，簡要闡述了論文的研究背景、目的及意義；綜述了加速退化試驗的發(fā)展歷史、國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀、存在的問題及發(fā)展趨勢；概述了Copula函數(shù)的發(fā)展及其在可靠性領域的研究現(xiàn)狀。 其次，，給出了產(chǎn)品可靠性的度量指標和性能退化的相關概念；基于Copula函數(shù)建立了多性能參數(shù)產(chǎn)品的可靠性模型；并介紹了Copula函數(shù)的定義、性質(zhì)、相關性度量、參數(shù)估計及Copula函數(shù)選擇等基本理論；為多元加速退化試驗數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析及多性能參數(shù)產(chǎn)品的可靠性評估奠定了基礎。 第三，分析了加速退化數(shù)據(jù)的特點，總結了退化量分布、退化軌跡和加速方程的一般形式，建立了多元加速退化試驗數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計模型；提出了退化數(shù)據(jù)分布選擇、分布參數(shù)估計、退化軌跡擬合、Copula函數(shù)參數(shù)估計及選擇、產(chǎn)品可靠性評估和壽命預測方法，從而建立了基于Copula函數(shù)的多元加速退化試驗數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析的一般方法；并通過數(shù)值仿真實例，驗證了該方法的可行性。 第四，分析了貯存條件下電液伺服機構用丁腈橡膠O型密封圈的失效機理，建立了其性能參數(shù)退化軌跡和加速方程；以溫度為加速因子，壓縮永久變形和壓縮應力松弛為O型密封圈退化性能參數(shù)，設計了O型密封圈加速退化試驗方案；利用基于Copula函數(shù)的多元加速退化試驗數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析方法對O型密封圈加速退化數(shù)據(jù)進行了統(tǒng)計分析，得到了正常溫度下O型密封圈的可靠度曲線及中位壽命。 最后，總結了全文研究的內(nèi)容，并指出了多元加速退化試驗方法進一步研究的內(nèi)容。
[Abstract]:With the development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of processing technology, many products have the characteristics of high reliability and long life, which makes reliability assessment and life prediction based on failure data more difficult. The accelerated degradation test can utilize the information of the performance degradation data, thus providing an effective means to solve the reliability evaluation and life prediction of these products. At present, most of the researches on performance degradation test focus on single performance parameter, but in practical engineering, many complex products can not judge whether they meet the normal working requirements with a single performance parameter. Moreover, there is a certain correlation between the degradation data of multiple performance parameters. It is necessary to reasonably establish its correlation mode. Copula function is a flexible and robust tool for correlation analysis, which has many advantages in analyzing the correlation between variables. Therefore, based on Copula function, the reliability modeling, data statistical analysis, reliability evaluation and life prediction of multi-performance parameter products are studied in this paper. The main work of this paper is as follows: firstly, the research background, purpose and significance of the thesis are briefly described, and the development history, domestic and foreign research status, existing problems and development trend of accelerated degradation test are summarized. This paper summarizes the development of Copula function and its research status in the field of reliability. Secondly, the measurement index of product reliability and the related concepts of performance degradation are given, the reliability model of multi-performance parameter product is established based on Copula function, and the definition, property, correlation measure of Copula function are introduced. The basic theory of parameter estimation and Copula function selection lays a foundation for statistical analysis of multivariate accelerated degradation test data and reliability evaluation of multi-performance parametric products. Thirdly, the characteristics of accelerated degradation data are analyzed, the general forms of degradation quantity distribution, degradation trajectory and acceleration equation are summarized, the statistical model of multivariate accelerated degradation test data is established, and the selection of degradation data distribution is proposed. Distribution parameter estimation, parameter estimation and selection of Copula function, product reliability evaluation and life prediction method, and a general method for statistical analysis of multivariate accelerated degradation test data based on Copula function are established. The feasibility of the method is verified by numerical simulation. Fourthly, the failure mechanism of nitrile-butadiene rubber O-type seal ring for electro-hydraulic servo mechanism under storage condition is analyzed, and the degradation track and acceleration equation of its performance parameters are established. The compression permanent deformation and compression stress relaxation are the degradation performance parameters of O-type seal ring, and the accelerated degradation test scheme of O-type seal ring is designed. Based on Copula function, the accelerated degradation data of O type seal ring is analyzed by using the statistical analysis method of multivariate accelerated degradation test data. The reliability curve and median life of O type seal ring at normal temperature are obtained. Finally, the contents of this paper are summarized, and the further research contents of multivariate accelerated degradation test method are pointed out.
【學位授予單位】：浙江理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TB114.3

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