本文選題：泥石流 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)　； 參考：《成都理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：汶川地震誘發(fā)了大量崩塌、滑坡等次生地質(zhì)災(zāi)害,為泥石流活動(dòng)提供了豐富的松散固體物源,同時(shí)在地震后效應(yīng)的影響下,巖體內(nèi)部的剪切力作用使得巖體結(jié)構(gòu)破壞、坡體失穩(wěn),在后期降雨條件下極易啟動(dòng)為泥石流提供間接補(bǔ)給。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),震后爆發(fā)的泥石流次數(shù)較震前明顯增加,地震導(dǎo)致的災(zāi)害鏈效應(yīng)會(huì)影響震后幾十年甚至更長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間,因此對(duì)震區(qū)泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的研究十分重要。針對(duì)震區(qū)泥石流的特點(diǎn),本文以清平鎮(zhèn)綿遠(yuǎn)河流域泥石流為研究對(duì)象,通過(guò)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)研并結(jié)合前人研究資料,分析了泥石流的地質(zhì)環(huán)境和發(fā)育背景,將災(zāi)害鏈效應(yīng)考慮到泥石流危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)當(dāng)中。利用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法和RUSLE模型對(duì)泥石流爆發(fā)時(shí)的物源動(dòng)儲(chǔ)量進(jìn)行估算。通過(guò)文獻(xiàn)調(diào)研的方式初步確立了20個(gè)危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),采用粗糙集對(duì)初選指標(biāo)進(jìn)一步約簡(jiǎn)。利用核主成分分析對(duì)泥石流危險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),最后結(jié)合對(duì)泥石流區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)承災(zāi)體的易損性評(píng)價(jià),得到震區(qū)泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果。本文提出的震區(qū)泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的研究思路和計(jì)算方法,有較高的可行性和科學(xué)依據(jù),取得的主要成果有:(1)基于清平鎮(zhèn)泥石流爆發(fā)歷史及現(xiàn)狀。確定以綿遠(yuǎn)河流域11條泥石流溝為研究對(duì)象進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。詳細(xì)調(diào)查了研究區(qū)域的氣象水文、地形地貌、地層巖性、地質(zhì)構(gòu)造、植被條件等泥石流發(fā)育背景資料,分析震前震后的泥石流特征以及地震對(duì)泥石流物源儲(chǔ)量和啟動(dòng)條件的影響。(2)建立泥石流物源動(dòng)儲(chǔ)量估算模型。利用樣本數(shù)據(jù),控制變量法找出單一因子與動(dòng)儲(chǔ)量的關(guān)系,并建立多元非線性回歸模型,通過(guò)該模型估算出崩滑堆積類泥石流物源動(dòng)儲(chǔ)量,結(jié)合RUSLE模型估算出的坡面侵蝕類泥石流物源動(dòng)儲(chǔ)量,從而得到泥石流物源動(dòng)儲(chǔ)量。(3)結(jié)合前人對(duì)泥石流危險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的研究成果和研究區(qū)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查結(jié)果,對(duì)泥石流危險(xiǎn)性影響因子進(jìn)行初選,再根據(jù)粗糙集理論采取差別矩陣對(duì)所選取的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行屬性約簡(jiǎn),得到泥石流危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。(4)介紹了核函數(shù)及核主成分方法的基本理論,對(duì)各溝域原始數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理后,利用核主成分分析提取出最優(yōu)主成分,通過(guò)對(duì)主成分的計(jì)算得到研究區(qū)各溝域的危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果。(5)在地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,探討了泥石流災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)中易損性評(píng)價(jià)的技術(shù)方法,論述了泥石流易損性的影響因素,即被破壞的可能性、被損壞的難易程度以及承災(zāi)體的價(jià)值,初步建立了適用于山區(qū)單溝泥石流災(zāi)害易損性評(píng)價(jià)的方法,并結(jié)合危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)得到泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:Wenchuan earthquake induced a large number of secondary geological disasters, such as collapse, landslide and other secondary geological disasters, which provided a rich source of loose solid for debris flow activities. At the same time, under the influence of post-earthquake effect, the internal shear force of rock mass caused the destruction of rock mass structure. The slope body is unstable and can easily start to provide indirect recharge for debris flow under the late rainfall condition. According to statistics, the frequency of debris flow after earthquake is obviously increased than that before earthquake, and the disaster chain effect caused by earthquake will affect the risk assessment of debris flow in earthquake area for decades or even longer after the earthquake, so it is very important to study the risk assessment of debris flow in earthquake area. According to the characteristics of debris flow in earthquake area, this paper takes debris flow in Mianyuan River basin of Qingping Town as the research object, analyzes the geological environment and development background of debris flow through field investigation and combining with previous research data. The hazard chain effect is taken into account in the risk assessment of debris flow. The dynamic reserves of debris flow were estimated by statistical method and RUSLE model. Through literature investigation, 20 risk evaluation indexes were preliminarily established, and rough sets were used to further reduce the primary indexes. The risk of debris flow is evaluated by nuclear principal component analysis. Finally, the risk assessment results of debris flow in seismic area are obtained by combining the vulnerability evaluation of debris flow in the area of debris flow. The research thought and calculation method of debris flow risk assessment in seismic area presented in this paper have high feasibility and scientific basis, and the main results obtained are: 1) based on the history and present situation of debris flow in Qingping Town. Take 11 debris flow gullies in Mianyuan River Basin as the research object to carry on the risk evaluation. The background data of debris flow development, such as meteorology, hydrology, topography, stratigraphic lithology, geological structure, vegetation conditions, etc., were investigated in detail. The characteristics of debris flow before and after the earthquake and the influence of the earthquake on the source reserves and start-up conditions of debris flow are analyzed. A model for estimating the dynamic reserves of debris flow source is established. Based on the sample data, the control variable method is used to find out the relationship between the single factor and the dynamic reserves, and a multivariate nonlinear regression model is established to estimate the source dynamic reserves of debris flows. Combined with the RUSLE model to estimate the slope erosion debris flow source reserves, the debris flow source reserves. 3) combined with the previous research results of debris flow risk assessment and site investigation results in the study area. The influence factors of debris flow risk are selected by primary selection, and then the attribute reduction of the selected evaluation index is carried out by using the difference matrix according to rough set theory. The basic theory of kernel function and kernel principal component method is introduced. After standardized processing of original data in each gully domain, the optimal principal component is extracted by kernel principal component analysis. Based on the theory of geological hazard risk assessment, the technical method of vulnerability assessment in debris flow hazard risk assessment is discussed. This paper discusses the influencing factors of debris flow vulnerability, that is, the possibility of being destroyed, the degree of damage and the value of disaster bearing body, and establishes a method for evaluating the vulnerability of debris flow in mountain area. The risk assessment results of debris flow are obtained based on the risk assessment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P642.23

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