本文選題：黃河源區(qū) + 多年凍土��； 參考：《地理學(xué)報(bào)》2017年09期

【摘要】：基于IPCC第五次評(píng)估報(bào)告預(yù)估的氣溫變化情景,采用數(shù)值模擬的方法對(duì)黃河源區(qū)典型凍土類型開展模擬,推算過去及預(yù)測未來黃河源區(qū)凍土分布空間變化過程和發(fā)展趨勢。結(jié)果表明:1972-2012年源區(qū)多年凍土只有少部分發(fā)生退化,退化的凍土面積為833 km~2,季節(jié)凍土主要集中在源區(qū)東南部的熱曲谷地、小野馬嶺以及兩湖流域南部的湯岔瑪?shù)貛?RCP 2.6、RCP 6.0、RCP 8.5情景下,2050年多年凍土退化為季節(jié)凍土的面積差別不大,分別為2224 km~2、2347 km~2、2559 km~2,占源區(qū)面積的7.5%、7.9%、8.6%;勒那曲、多曲、白馬曲零星出現(xiàn)季節(jié)凍土,野牛溝、野馬灘以及鄂陵湖東部的瑪多四湖所在黃河低谷大片為季節(jié)凍土;2100年多年凍土退化為季節(jié)凍土的面積分別為5636 km~2、9769 km~2、15548 km~2,占源區(qū)面積的19%、32.9%、52.3%;星宿海、尕瑪勒灘、多格茸的多年凍土發(fā)生退化,低溫凍土變?yōu)楦邷貎鐾?各類年平均地溫出現(xiàn)了不同程度的升高。到2100年,RCP 2.6情景下源區(qū)多年凍土全部退化為季節(jié)凍土主要發(fā)生在目前年平均地溫高于-0.15oC的區(qū)域,而-0.15~-0.44oC的區(qū)域部分發(fā)生退化;RCP 6.0、RCP 8.5情景下目前年平均地溫分別為高于-0.21oC以及-0.38oC的區(qū)域多年凍土全部發(fā)生退化,而-0.21~-0.69oC以及-0.38~-0.88oC的區(qū)域部分發(fā)生退化。
[Abstract]:Based on the temperature change scenarios predicted in the fifth assessment report of IPCC, the typical frozen soil types in the source region of the Yellow River are simulated by numerical simulation method, and the spatial variation process and development trend of the distribution of frozen soil in the source region of the Yellow River in the past and in the future are predicted. The results show that only a few parts of permafrost in the source area of the source area of the area of 833 km2 have been degraded from 1972 to 2012, and the seasonal frozen soil is mainly concentrated in the hot crooked valley in the southeastern part of the source region. Under the scenario of RCP 2.6 / RCP 6.0 / RCP 8.5 in Xiaowo Ma Ling and the southern Tangchama region of the two lakes, the area of frozen soil degraded into seasonal frozen soil in 2050 is not different, which is 2224 km2 22 2347 km / g 22559 km / m respectively, accounting for 7.57.9% of the source area and 8.6% of the source area; Lena qu, Doku, Doku, White horse qu scattered seasonal permafrost, bison ditch, The Yellow River valley of Mustang Beach and Maduo Lake in the east of Eling Lake is mainly seasonal frozen soil, and the area of frozen soil degraded into seasonal permafrost in 2100 years is 5636 km / m of 297 669 km / m respectively, accounting for 1 15548 km / m of the source area, accounting for 1 929% of the area of the source area, 52.3% of the total area of the source area, and the Xingshu Sea, Gamal Beach, is the main area of the Yellow River. The permafrost is degraded, the low-temperature permafrost is changed into the high-temperature permafrost, and the annual mean ground temperature increases to some extent. By 2100, under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the permafrost in the source region was degraded into seasonal permafrost, which mainly occurred in areas where the annual mean ground temperature was higher than -0.15oC at present. Under the RCP 6.0 / RCP 8.5 scenario, the permafrost in the regions where the annual mean ground temperature is higher than -0.21oC and -0.38oC, respectively, is degraded, while the regions of -0.21oC -0.69oC and -0.380-0.88oC are degraded.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院西北生態(tài)環(huán)境資源研究院凍土工程國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;中國科學(xué)院大學(xué);
【基金】：中國科學(xué)院重點(diǎn)部署項(xiàng)目(KZZD-EW-13) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(91647103,41501079) 凍土工程國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室自主研究課題(SKLFSE-ZQ-43)~~
【分類號(hào)】：P642.14

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本文編號(hào)：1804127