本文選題：邊坡監(jiān)測　切入點：滑坡預報　出處：《南京大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：在極端天氣增多和人類工程活動加劇等因素的影響下,我國的滑坡地質災害呈現(xiàn)多發(fā)趨勢。近年來,江蘇省鎮(zhèn)江市滑坡地質災害逐年增多,在東部沿海地區(qū)具有一定代表性。本文以鎮(zhèn)江市跑馬山滑坡災害防治工程為依托,開展滑坡監(jiān)測及預警預報等研究工作。論文在系統(tǒng)收集已有研究資料和野外工程地質調查的基礎上,系統(tǒng)分析了鎮(zhèn)江地區(qū)地質環(huán)境特征、滑坡災害及古滑坡再活動特征,重點研究了跑馬山山體工程地質特征,通過現(xiàn)場勘探和土工試驗,給出邊坡巖土體物理力學指標,在此基礎上,確定該邊坡以表面變形監(jiān)測為主,并以降雨量監(jiān)測相結合的監(jiān)測方案,布設監(jiān)測點,運用無線網絡系統(tǒng)實現(xiàn)全自動遠程監(jiān)測,實時掌握邊坡動態(tài)變形過程,對這一滑坡地質災害成功實現(xiàn)了預測預報,取得主要研究成果如下。1.對滑坡變形監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)中的變異突變數(shù)據(jù)的分析和處理,并且采用Matlab編程對缺失數(shù)據(jù)進行插補,為跑馬山滑坡變形分析及失穩(wěn)破壞預測預報提供了連續(xù)、可靠的監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)。2.在分析跑馬山地質特征及監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)的基礎上,著重研究了降雨對跑馬山滑坡變形破壞的演化規(guī)律,并從監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)中的累計位移量數(shù)據(jù)中,根據(jù)位移速率角分析法判定了跑馬山滑坡的變形破壞階段;在綜合分析鎮(zhèn)江地區(qū)降雨數(shù)據(jù)和累計位移數(shù)據(jù)的基礎上,結合判定出的跑馬山滑坡的變形破壞階段,得出跑馬山變形破壞的機理。3.以蠕變理論為基礎,建立齋藤迪孝時序預測模型,通過等速變形階段應變歷時曲線和加速變形階段應變歷時曲線的分析計算,得出滑坡最終破壞時間。4.以動態(tài)GM(1,1)模型為基礎,開展了跑馬山滑坡變形趨勢預測模型研究,并通過模擬計算,最終確定最佳數(shù)據(jù)序列長度,然后校檢模型的可信度。5.以非線性灰色時間預測預報模型為基礎,展開了邊坡整體失穩(wěn)時間預測預報的模型的研究,將該模型應用于跑馬山滑坡整體失穩(wěn)破壞時間的預測預報研究中。這一研究結果為鎮(zhèn)江地區(qū)的邊坡監(jiān)測預報與防治提供了依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of the increase of extreme weather and the aggravation of human engineering activities, the landslide geological hazards in China show a tendency of frequent occurrence. In recent years, the landslide geological disasters in Zhenjiang City, Jiangsu Province have been increasing year by year. It is representative in the eastern coastal area. This paper relies on the project of preventing and controlling the landslide in Pingma Mountain, Zhenjiang City. Based on the systematic collection of existing research data and field engineering geological survey, the geological environment characteristics, landslide disasters and reactivity characteristics of ancient landslides in Zhenjiang area are systematically analyzed. In this paper, the engineering geological characteristics of the Haimashan mountain body are studied emphatically, and the physical and mechanical indexes of the rock and soil mass of the slope are given through field exploration and geotechnical test. On this basis, it is determined that the monitoring of the surface deformation of the slope is the main part. Based on the monitoring scheme of rainfall monitoring, the monitoring points are set up, the automatic remote monitoring is realized by wireless network system, and the dynamic deformation process of slope is grasped in real time. The prediction of the landslide geological hazard is successfully realized. The main research results are as follows: 1. The analysis and processing of the variation and mutation data in the landslide deformation monitoring data, and the interpolation of missing data by Matlab programming, which provides a continuous method for the deformation analysis and prediction of instability and failure in Happy Valley landslide. 2. On the basis of analyzing the geological characteristics and monitoring data of Haima Mountain, the evolution law of deformation and failure caused by rainfall is studied, and from the accumulative displacement data of monitoring data, Based on the analysis of displacement rate angle analysis, the deformation and failure stage of Heimashan landslide is determined, and on the basis of comprehensive analysis of rainfall data and accumulative displacement data in Zhenjiang area, the deformation and failure stage of the landslide is determined. On the basis of creep theory, the prediction model of Saito Di Xiao time series is established. The strain duration curve of constant velocity deformation stage and acceleration deformation stage are analyzed and calculated. Finally, based on the dynamic GM1 / 1) model, the prediction model of landslide deformation trend is studied, and the optimal length of the data sequence is determined by simulation calculation. Secondly, the reliability of the model is checked. 5. Based on the nonlinear grey time prediction model, the research on the prediction model of the whole slope instability time is carried out. The model is applied to the prediction and prediction of the overall instability and failure time of the slope in Happy Valley, which provides a basis for the slope monitoring, prediction and prevention and control in Zhenjiang area.
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P642.22

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