本文關(guān)鍵詞：生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價方法述評，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

生態(tài)學(xué)報2010,30(10):2735—2744ActaEcologicaSinica

生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價方法述評

張思鋒,劉晗夢

(西安交通大學(xué)公共政策與管理學(xué)院,西安　710049)3

摘要:生態(tài)風(fēng)險是由環(huán)境的自然變化或人類活動引起的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)組成、結(jié)構(gòu)的改變而導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)功能損失的可能性。生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價是定量預(yù)測各種風(fēng)險源對生態(tài)系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險的或然性以及評估該風(fēng)險可接受程度的方法體系,因而是生態(tài)環(huán)境風(fēng)險管理與決策的定量依據(jù)。在介紹了生態(tài)風(fēng)險概念的基礎(chǔ)上,按照風(fēng)險源性質(zhì)的分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)將生態(tài)風(fēng)險劃分為化學(xué)污染類風(fēng)險源、生態(tài)事件類風(fēng)險源、復(fù)合類風(fēng)險源3類,并分別論述了3類生態(tài)風(fēng)險對應(yīng)評價方法的特點(diǎn)與發(fā)展的方向。另外,針對生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價研究的現(xiàn)狀,討論了我國生態(tài)風(fēng)險研究的優(yōu)先領(lǐng)域,包括建立急性、慢性毒理數(shù)據(jù)庫,構(gòu)建外來生物入侵風(fēng)險評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等,同時,建議將綜合概率統(tǒng)計學(xué)、復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)理論與遙感技術(shù)等手段引入生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價方法中,以進(jìn)一步提高風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果在生態(tài)風(fēng)險管理中的有效性。

關(guān)鍵詞:生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價;生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價方法

ReviewofecologicalriskassessmentmZHANGSifeng,LIUHanmeng

SchoolofPublicManagementandAdmXiaoTong,China3

Abstract:Theriskasthecharacterizationoftheadverseecologicaleffectsoftobynaturalchangesorhumanactivities.Ecologicalriskassessmentisaflexibleprocessforanalyzingdata,assumptions,anduncertaintiestoevaluatethelikelihood(probability)ofadverseecologicaleffectsthatmayhaveoccurredormayoccurasaresultofexposuretooneormorestressorsrelatedtosourcesofecologicalrisk.Itcanprovideareliablequantitativeevidencefortheecologicalenvironmentriskmanagementanddecision2making.Theecologicalriskassessmentcanbedividedintothreeregimesaccordingtotheclassificationstandardforthecharactersoftherisksource,includingriskassessmentofchemicalpollutionrisksource,ecologicalassessmentofecologicaleventsrisksourceandriskassessmentofcompositerisksource(naturalrisksourceandhumanactivitiesrisksource).Thispaperreviewstherecentdevelopmentssurroundingconceptofecologicalriskanddiscussesthefutureresearchdirectionsofthreemethodsofecologicalriskassessment.Theimprovedquotientmethodismorequantificationalthantheoldonebysettingmultiplelevelsofriskorgivingthevalueofrisk,andthefurtherstudyofthismethodmaybefocusedonreflectingtherelationshipbetweentheconcentrationofpollutantsandtheeffectsofthecontaminatedreceptors,estimatinginfluenceofpollutantsonreceptorswhicharenotinthestudysitesandcalculatingtherangeofbeingpollutedordamaged.Whentheacutetoxicologicaleffectsisanalyzebytheexposure2responsemethodtoassessecologicalriskinthecontrolledconditions,itisimportanttoanalyzethesecondaryeffectsofpollutantsonobjectiveenvironmentandchangesofreceptorseffectscausedbytransformationaswell.Theresearchoftheinvasiveriskassessmentofnon2indigenousspeciesisstillinthestageofconstructingtheregimeandhasnotyetformedasameconclusion.Thispaperarguesthatwecanestablishaunifiedindexsystemthroughdecomposingtheindicatorsoflayerguidelinesbydefiningtheconnotation,extensionandthenumbersofthespecificindicatorswhichcorrespondingtoeachlayergroup,andthe“thresholdvalue”oftheindexesshouldbeinvestigateaccuratelywhichreflectthecapacityoftheenvironment.Furthermore,wesuggestthatstatisticalmethodcouldbeusedas基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(40771083)

收稿日期:2009207215;　　修訂日期:2010202225

3通訊作者Correspondingauthor.E2mail:zhangf@mail.xjtu.edu.cn

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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：生態(tài)風(fēng)險評價方法述評，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。