本文選題：水電工程 + EPC承包商��； 參考：《土木工程與管理學(xué)報(bào)》2017年03期

【摘要】：針對(duì)水電EPC項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)多樣且具有顯著階段可變性的特點(diǎn),本文提出全過程、全方位、全要素、全團(tuán)隊(duì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法以實(shí)現(xiàn)提高承包商全過程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平的目的。首先,依據(jù)約束理論(TOC)建立三步驟動(dòng)態(tài)反饋環(huán)用以識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn);其次,采用集對(duì)分析理論(SPA)中平均聯(lián)系度和主被動(dòng)聯(lián)系度兩種綜合指標(biāo)來研究風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量;最后,根據(jù)聯(lián)系勢(shì)和全偏聯(lián)系數(shù)兩種排序準(zhǔn)則尋找系統(tǒng)中最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)約束。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明,本文提出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理動(dòng)態(tài)循環(huán)法有助于水電工程EPC項(xiàng)目承包商逐次從系統(tǒng)中消除最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),實(shí)現(xiàn)不同范圍、不同層次、不同進(jìn)度下的優(yōu)化管理。
[Abstract]:In view of the characteristics that the risk of hydropower EPC project is diverse and has significant stage variability, this paper puts forward the risk management method of the whole process, all aspects and the whole team to achieve the purpose of improving the risk management level of the contractor in the whole process. Firstly, a three-step dynamic feedback loop is established according to the constraint theory to identify the risk. Secondly, two comprehensive indexes, the average connection degree and the active and passive correlation degree, are used to study the risk quantification. The maximum risk constraints in the system are found according to two sort criteria, the contact potential and the total partial association number. The result of empirical analysis shows that the dynamic cycle method of risk management proposed in this paper can help the contractor of EPC project to eliminate the maximum risk step by step from the system and realize the optimal management in different range, different level and different progress.
【作者單位】： 華東交通大學(xué)土木建筑學(xué)院;
【基金】：江西省軟科學(xué)研究計(jì)劃(20151BAA10047) 江西省社會(huì)科學(xué)"十二五"規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目(15GL19) 鐵路環(huán)境振動(dòng)與噪聲教育部工程研究中心資助(13TM01)
【分類號(hào)】：F272.3;F426.92

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