本文關鍵詞：基于SD的工業(yè)碳排放情景模擬及行業(yè)結構調整研究　出處：《浙江財經大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 工業(yè)行業(yè)碳排放 Johansen協(xié)整檢驗 系統(tǒng)動力學 情景模擬 工業(yè)結構調整

【摘要】：當前嚴峻的氣候形勢下,發(fā)展低碳經濟的必要性已在世界范圍內達成共識。為應對氣候變化,溫家寶總理在2009年哥本哈根會議上承諾“至2020年,中國碳排放強度將較2005年下降40%-45%”。工業(yè)作為碳排放量最大的國民經濟部門,為如期實現(xiàn)碳減排目標,對工業(yè)行業(yè)實行碳減排、發(fā)展低碳工業(yè)已然勢在必行。如何實現(xiàn)工業(yè)經濟發(fā)展與節(jié)能減排之間的均衡,以達成工業(yè)經濟發(fā)展與節(jié)能減排的共贏成為了亟待解決的難題。首先,本文就我國工業(yè)行業(yè)經濟發(fā)展、能源消耗現(xiàn)狀進行分析。利用排放系數(shù)法測算工業(yè)碳排放量和碳排放強度,分析工業(yè)碳排放現(xiàn)狀。通過文獻梳理,分析工業(yè)碳排放影響因素;從工業(yè)各分行業(yè)的角度,分別將工業(yè)三大分行業(yè)(采礦業(yè),制造業(yè),電力、熱力、燃氣及水生產和供應業(yè))碳排放強度與各碳排放影響因素(工業(yè)行業(yè)規(guī)模、工業(yè)行業(yè)結構、能源消費結構和技術進步)進行Johansen協(xié)整檢驗,驗證各工業(yè)分行業(yè)碳排放強度與上述各影響因素之間存在長期均衡關系,為構建工業(yè)碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(SD)模型反饋回路提供依據。在此基礎之上,利用系統(tǒng)動力學(SD)理論,構建工業(yè)碳排放SD模型�；谇笆鰧I(yè)行業(yè)經濟發(fā)展、碳排放現(xiàn)狀及其影響因素的分析,確定系統(tǒng)邊界和反饋回路,將模型劃分為人口、經濟發(fā)展、能源消費和碳排放四個子系統(tǒng)。應用Venism PLE軟件對SD模型進行直觀性測試、有效性檢驗和積分誤差測試,驗證模型的有效性和穩(wěn)定性。經驗證,模型具有可行性,可用于情景模擬研究。之后,應用構建的工業(yè)碳排放SD模型,基于工業(yè)行業(yè)結構、工業(yè)行業(yè)能源消費結構和科技投入分別對工業(yè)碳排放系統(tǒng)進行單項調整與情景模擬;分析各情景模式下工業(yè)經濟、能源消耗及碳排放變化情況、工業(yè)碳排放強度目標的完成情況;通過與基準情景進行比較,分析特定因素變量對系統(tǒng)所產生的影響。鑒于單項調整存在一定的局限性(現(xiàn)實中相關參數(shù)受可行性與客觀條件的制約,存在著一定的可調控范圍),將工業(yè)行業(yè)結構、工業(yè)行業(yè)能源消費結構和科技投入進行有效組合,設置工業(yè)行業(yè)結構綜合調整方案進行SD情景模擬。比較各方案下經濟、能源消耗碳排放相關指標的運行情況及工業(yè)碳排放強度目標的實現(xiàn)情況,得出最佳調整方案(調控結果最接近工業(yè)碳排放強度目標,且能夠實現(xiàn)經濟增長)。通過分析和比較各項工業(yè)行業(yè)結構調整方案下經濟及能源消耗碳排放相應指標的仿真結果,得出以下結論:(1)工業(yè)碳減排與經濟增長并不矛盾,在合適的政策引導下二者是可以兼顧的,雙贏可期。但工業(yè)行業(yè)在當前發(fā)展趨勢下,將不會達成“2020年工業(yè)碳排放強度較2005年下降50%”的目標。(2)對工業(yè)行業(yè)結構進行適當調整(適當調增電力、熱力、燃氣及水生產和供應業(yè)增加值比重,并相應調減制造業(yè)增加值比重)時,對工業(yè)經濟增長的影響較小,且能夠明顯降低工業(yè)能源消費量、工業(yè)二氧化碳排放總量及工業(yè)碳排放強度同期水平。(3)在適度范圍內優(yōu)化能源消費結構(逐漸降低工業(yè)煤炭消費比重,增大天然氣和其他能源消費比重,適當調節(jié)石油消費比重)能夠明顯減緩工業(yè)二氧化碳排放量增長、降低工業(yè)碳排放強度,且不會影響工業(yè)經濟穩(wěn)定增長。(4)加大科技投入水平,提高科技投入占工業(yè)增加值的比重,對工業(yè)增加值的影響較小,對減緩工業(yè)能源消費總量增長有促進作用,有利于提升能源利用效率,減緩工業(yè)二氧化碳排放增長,降低工業(yè)碳排放強度。最后,為我國實現(xiàn)工業(yè)行業(yè)低碳發(fā)展提出建議:對工業(yè)行業(yè)結構進行調整,對高耗能行業(yè)進行整改;優(yōu)化工業(yè)行業(yè)能源消費結構;加強技術創(chuàng)新,努力提高低碳技術水平。
[Abstract]:The current climatic situation, the necessity of the development of low carbon economy has reached a consensus in the world. To cope with climate change, Premier Wen Jiabao at the meeting of 2009 in Copenhagen promised to 2020, the carbon emission intensity of China will be lower than in 2005 40%-45%. "As the largest carbon emissions of industrial sectors of the national economy, in order to achieve carbon the emission reduction targets on schedule, the implementation of carbon emission reduction of the industrial sector, the development of low carbon industry is imperative. How to realize between industrial economic development and energy saving and emission reduction in equilibrium, to achieve industrial economic development and energy saving and emission reduction in total wins has become a problem urgently to be solved. First of all, the economic development of our country industry, analyzing the current situation of energy consumption. The discharge of industrial carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the amount and intensity of carbon emissions, analysis of the current situation of industrial carbon emissions. Through literature review, analysis of industrial carbon emissions due to impact ; from industry sub industry perspective, the three major industrial sectors respectively (mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry) carbon emission intensity and the carbon emission factors (industrial scale, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and technological progress) of Johansen co the whole test verification, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the industrial factors of carbon emissions and the impact for the construction of industrial carbon emission system dynamics (SD) model feedback loop is provided. On this basis, using system dynamics (SD) theory, construction of industrial carbon emissions SD model. The economic development of the industry based on the analysis of the present situation and its influencing factors of carbon emissions, to determine the boundaries of the system and the feedback loop, the model is divided into population, economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions of four subsystems. The application of Venism PLE software for SD model Type of direct test, validity test and integral error test, verify the validity of the model and stability. Verification results show that the model is feasible and can be used to simulate the scene. After the industrial carbon emissions SD model construction, industrial structure based on industrial sector energy consumption structure and investment in science and technology of industrial carbon discharge system of individual adjustment and scenario simulation; the analysis of industrial economic scenarios, changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions, industrial carbon emissions intensity target completion; compared with the baseline scenario comparison, analysis of specific factors that influence variables of the system. In view of the limitations of the individual adjustment (constraints. The relevant parameters in reality by the objective conditions and feasibility of the existence of certain adjustable range), the industrial structure, industrial energy consumption structure and investment in science and technology into The effective combination of SD scenarios set up the comprehensive adjustment of industry structure. The industrial scheme scheme economy, implementation of carbon emission from energy consumption indicators related to the operating situation and the industrial carbon intensity target, the optimal adjustment scheme (regulation is closest to the industrial carbon intensity targets, and can achieve economic growth). The consumption of carbon emission index of the corresponding simulation results through analysis and comparison of the energy economy and industrial structure adjustment plan, draw the following conclusions: (1) industrial carbon emissions and economic growth is not a contradiction in the appropriate policy under the guidance of the two can be considered, but the industry can be win-win. In the current development trend that will not be reached "in 2020 the industrial carbon emission intensity decreased by 50% compared with 2005." (2) to adjust the industrial structure (appropriate increase electricity, heat, gas and water The proportion of the added value of production and supply industry, and correspondingly reduce the manufacturing value added ratio), less impact on the industrial economic growth, and can significantly reduce the energy consumption of industry, industrial emissions and industrial carbon emission intensity level of the same period. (3) the optimization of energy consumption structure in the moderate range decreased gradually (industrial the proportion of coal consumption, increasing natural gas and other energy consumption, adjust the oil consumption ratio) can significantly reduce the industrial carbon dioxide emissions growth, reduce industrial carbon emission intensity, and will not affect the stable growth of industrial economy. (4) to increase investment in science and technology level, increase science and technology investment accounted for the proportion of industrial added value, the industrial added. Effect of value, to reduce the industrial energy consumption has a role in promoting growth, is conducive to improving energy efficiency, slow growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, reduce industrial Finally, suggestions for China to achieve low carbon development in industrial sectors are put forward: adjust the industrial structure, rectify the high energy consuming industries, optimize the energy consumption structure of industrial sectors, strengthen technological innovation, and strive to improve low carbon technology level.

【學位授予單位】：浙江財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X322;F424

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