本文關(guān)鍵詞：產(chǎn)能過剩背景下中國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究　出處：《西安科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 產(chǎn)能過剩 煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè) 產(chǎn)業(yè)戰(zhàn)略 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 情景分析

【摘要】：當(dāng)前,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式已進(jìn)入了中高速發(fā)展的新常態(tài),經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于“三期疊加”時期,煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)隨之進(jìn)入“四期并存”的新階段,煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展必須適應(yīng)新形勢要求。為妥善應(yīng)對煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)下行壓力,保障煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,本文主要基于當(dāng)前煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩這一實際背景,旨在研究中國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。基于對世界能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢、煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略三方面的文獻(xiàn)綜述,全面分析了中國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境,并通過系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)思想和情景分析法重點模擬仿真了煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)市場供需及煤炭產(chǎn)能的變動趨勢,并據(jù)此提出了煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略及政策建議。一是基于煤炭資源與產(chǎn)能現(xiàn)狀,通過PEST方法,從政治和法律環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、技術(shù)環(huán)境以及社會文化和生態(tài)環(huán)境四方面對經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下中國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的宏觀環(huán)境進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析;通過SWOT方法,闡述了煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)當(dāng)前面臨的有利和不利因素;通過對煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展所處的內(nèi)、外部戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境進(jìn)行具體探析,對目前煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展前景有了準(zhǔn)確明晰的定位。二是建立了中國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的SD模型,將影響中國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源環(huán)境、人口等的相關(guān)因素納入模型,以GDP、人口總量、煤炭產(chǎn)能、煤炭價格作為水平變量,以年GDP變化量、年人口增加值、年淘汰落后產(chǎn)能、煤炭價格變化量作為控制變量,并通過了系統(tǒng)的量綱一致性和擬合度檢驗。通過VensimPLE軟件對模型進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)仿真,結(jié)合研究目的,重點分析了我國煤炭市場供需及煤炭產(chǎn)能的變化趨勢。三是采用情景分析法,劃定了基準(zhǔn)情景,設(shè)置了煤炭消費比重降低、煤炭強(qiáng)度降低、煤炭進(jìn)口量降低和落后產(chǎn)能淘汰率加大四種不同的仿真情景,對煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的SD模型進(jìn)行模擬仿真,重點分析了 2011-2030年不同情景對于煤炭產(chǎn)能過剩的調(diào)控作用。模擬仿真結(jié)果表明,就不同情景對煤炭過剩產(chǎn)能的調(diào)控力度而言,降低煤炭強(qiáng)度和降低煤炭消費對于煤炭產(chǎn)能過剩有一定的調(diào)控作用,但并不顯著,增大落后產(chǎn)能淘汰率對產(chǎn)能的調(diào)節(jié)作用最明顯,其次是減少煤炭進(jìn)口量。最后,基于煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境的分析,確立了中國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的指導(dǎo)思想、總體戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)及戰(zhàn)略選擇;對應(yīng)不同模擬情景,依次從調(diào)整能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)、提高煤炭利用效率、推進(jìn)煤炭國際貿(mào)易和優(yōu)化煤炭產(chǎn)能結(jié)構(gòu)四方面對當(dāng)前我國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議,為我國煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展提供了參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic development model has entered the new normal of high-speed development, the economy is in the "three superposition" period, the coal industry has entered a new stage of "four phases coexist". The development of coal industry must meet the requirements of the new situation. In order to properly deal with the downward pressure of the coal industry and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the coal industry, this paper is mainly based on the actual background of overcapacity in the current coal industry. In order to study the development strategy of China's coal industry, based on the world energy industry development trend, coal industry development status and coal industry development strategy three aspects of literature review. The strategic environment of China's coal industry development is comprehensively analyzed, and the changing trend of coal industry market supply and demand and coal production capacity is simulated by system dynamics and scenario analysis. Based on the status of coal resources and production capacity, through PEST method, from the political and legal environment, economic environment. The macro environment of China's coal industry development under the new normal state of economy is analyzed in detail from the four aspects of technological environment, social culture and ecological environment. Through the method of SWOT, this paper expounds the favorable and unfavorable factors that the coal industry is facing at present. Through the specific analysis of the internal and external strategic environment of the coal industry development, there is an accurate and clear positioning of the current coal industry development prospects. Second, the SD model of the coal industry development in China is established. The factors affecting the development of China's coal industry, such as economy, resource environment, population and so on, are incorporated into the model. The annual GDP changes are taken as horizontal variables, such as GDP, total population, coal production capacity and coal price. Annual population increase, annual elimination of backward production capacity, coal price change as a control variable. And through the system dimension consistency and fitness test, the model is simulated by VensimPLE software, combined with the purpose of the research. The change trend of coal supply and demand and coal production capacity in China is analyzed emphatically. Thirdly, the benchmark scenario is defined by scenario analysis, and the proportion of coal consumption is reduced and the coal intensity is reduced. There are four different simulation scenarios of coal import volume reduction and backward capacity elimination rate increase, and the SD model of coal industry development is simulated. The effects of different scenarios on the control of coal overcapacity in 2011-2030 are analyzed. The simulation results show that different scenarios control the coal overcapacity. Reducing the intensity of coal and reducing coal consumption has a certain regulatory effect on coal overcapacity, but it is not significant. Increasing the elimination rate of backward production capacity has the most obvious regulating effect on production capacity. Finally, based on the analysis of the strategic environment of coal industry development, the guiding ideology, overall strategic objectives and strategic choice of the development of China's coal industry are established. Corresponding to different simulation scenarios, from the adjustment of energy consumption structure, improve the efficiency of coal use. In order to promote the international trade of coal and optimize the structure of coal production capacity, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the development of China's coal industry at present, and provides a reference basis for the development of China's coal industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.21

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 Wentao Wang;Yanhua Liu;;Global trends and development of energy services industry in China[J];Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment;2016年03期

2 ;印度超過中國成為全球煤炭進(jìn)口第一大國[J];乙醛醋酸化工;2016年07期

3 任世華;陳茜;;我國煤炭企業(yè)在“一帶一路”沿線地區(qū)的投資環(huán)境評價[J];煤炭經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2016年06期

4 代生福;李永峰;;我國經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)背景下的煤炭企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略[J];能源技術(shù)與管理;2015年06期

5 ;“十三五”能源規(guī)劃信息匯[J];石油和化工節(jié)能;2015年06期

6 李妮珊;張曉;;新常態(tài)下煤炭企業(yè)發(fā)展分析[J];合作經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技;2015年20期

7 趙莉君;;煤炭企業(yè)發(fā)展多元化經(jīng)營的策略探析[J];北方經(jīng)貿(mào);2015年09期

8 郭水文;;“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下中國煤炭企業(yè)的策略選擇[J];煤炭經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2015年07期

9 辜勝阻;吳永斌;劉偉;;“十三五”時期煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的思考[J];學(xué)習(xí)與探索;2015年07期

10 王顯政;;能源革命和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展新常態(tài)下中國煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略思考[J];中國煤炭;2015年04期

相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前2條

1 劉虹;;管理體制機(jī)制矛盾制約煤炭行業(yè)發(fā)展[N];經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報;2011年

2 張文萍;;煤炭污染及其治理[N];人民代表報;2002年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 張言方;我國煤炭產(chǎn)能過剩的形成機(jī)理及調(diào)控對策研究[D];中國礦業(yè)大學(xué);2014年

2 孫浩;中國廣東核電集團(tuán)核電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究[D];山東大學(xué);2013年

3 張晶;我國煤炭資源立法研究[D];西安建筑科技大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號：1378996