【摘要】：伴隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步和飛機(jī)制造業(yè)的迅猛發(fā)展，我國(guó)具有自主知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)、符合國(guó)際適航標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的“新型渦扇噴氣支線客機(jī)”（ARJ21）下線并首飛成功，隨之而來的關(guān)于航空備件的保障問題被提上了議事日程，而航空備件的保障系統(tǒng)中，備件保障是其中的關(guān)鍵問題之一。本文以現(xiàn)代先進(jìn)的PBL保障理論為基礎(chǔ)，以ARJ21為研究對(duì)象，對(duì)航空備件的保障方法進(jìn)行了相關(guān)的研究，構(gòu)建了基于PBL的航空備件保障過程以及保障能力的評(píng)估模型、保障精度的熵權(quán)預(yù)測(cè)模型，提出了航空備件保障的經(jīng)濟(jì)性分析方法及分析內(nèi)容，最后以ARJ21為例，基于PBL理論，把ARJ21的備件保障分為初期保障和持續(xù)保障兩個(gè)階段，分別提出相應(yīng)的備件保障模型，并用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行定量驗(yàn)證。 PBL的保障理論早已被廣泛應(yīng)用于軍用飛機(jī)的保障活動(dòng)中，并取得了不菲的業(yè)績(jī)，但在民用飛機(jī)領(lǐng)域，這種保障方式并不常見，本文首先圖解PBL保障過程，描述備件保障過程的概率性序列運(yùn)算，從而闡明基于PBL的民機(jī)可靠性與備件量的關(guān)系。由于飛機(jī)的可靠性與備件量的多少息息相關(guān)，而備件量又與產(chǎn)品的固有故障率、使用率、庫(kù)存量、維修周期、機(jī)隊(duì)規(guī)模等密切相連。本文假設(shè)機(jī)隊(duì)規(guī)模N=50，分別探討維修周期tr=30天或60天，使用率β=0.5或0.8，有效利用率A0=0.8或0.95，的條件下，運(yùn)用MATLAB軟件模擬得到飛機(jī)可靠性與備件量的關(guān)系圖。 其次，運(yùn)用信息熵權(quán)理論探討航空備件保障系統(tǒng)的保障精度問題，分配各誤差評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，計(jì)算各單項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)方法的變異系數(shù)，用各誤差評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重、單項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)方法的權(quán)重，，確定組合權(quán)重系數(shù)矩陣，最后通過實(shí)例分析證明該熵權(quán)預(yù)測(cè)模型的精度。 最后，是對(duì)基于PBL的航空備件保障的經(jīng)濟(jì)性進(jìn)行分析。在這里，首先根據(jù)獲得的航空備件保障的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表，應(yīng)用財(cái)務(wù)分析軟件稽核該財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表，根據(jù)稽核報(bào)告，合成現(xiàn)金流量表，生成結(jié)構(gòu)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表，分析保障費(fèi)用的盈虧要素敏感性、基于范霍恩模型的保障活動(dòng)可持續(xù)性、保障活動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值、自由現(xiàn)金流量、基于K—S模型和邊際模型的盈余狀況；并用阿塔曼模型評(píng)價(jià)保障活動(dòng)的成功與否，用沃爾指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)保障活動(dòng)的信用能力，最后用拉巴波特模型評(píng)估保障價(jià)值。 在基于PBL的航空備件保障策略中，基于ARJ21，提出初期備件保障的周轉(zhuǎn)件、可修件、消耗件預(yù)測(cè)模型；以及持續(xù)備件保障中，根據(jù)六種故障模式，對(duì)于不可修件，采用隨機(jī)過程中的更新過程建立其需求量的計(jì)算模型，對(duì)于故障分布函數(shù)復(fù)雜，常規(guī)方法難于求解的情況，本研究采用MonteCarlo法模擬故障次數(shù)，計(jì)算不可修件的需求量；對(duì)于可修件，根據(jù)不同維修方法對(duì)備件壽命周期的影響，本研究引用“維修度”量化維修程度，應(yīng)用遺傳算法優(yōu)化維修度的參數(shù)估算值，用廣義更新過程建立可修件需求量模型。最后，運(yùn)用算例檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷挠行浴?br/>[Abstract]:With the progress of science and technology and the rapid development of the aircraft manufacturing industry, China has its own intellectual property rights, the "new turbofan jet regional passenger aircraft" (ARJ21), which conforms to the international airworthiness standard, has successfully landed and first flew successfully. The following issues of aviation spare parts support are put on the agenda, and in the aviation spare parts support system, spare parts support is one of the key issues. Based on the modern advanced PBL support theory and ARJ21 as the object of study, this paper studies the methods of aviation spare parts support, and constructs the model of aviation spare parts support process and support capability evaluation based on PBL. Based on the entropy weight prediction model of support precision, this paper puts forward the economic analysis method and content of aviation spare parts support. Finally, taking ARJ21 as an example, based on PBL theory, the spare parts support of ARJ21 is divided into two stages: initial support and continuous support. The corresponding spare parts support model is put forward respectively, and the model is quantitatively verified with relevant data. PBL's support theory has been widely used in the support activities of military aircraft, and has made great achievements. However, in the field of civil aircraft, this method is not common. This paper first illustrates the PBL support process, describes the probability sequence operation of the spare parts support process, and then clarifies the relationship between the reliability of civil aircraft based on PBL and the spare parts quantity. The reliability of aircraft is closely related to the quantity of spare parts, and the quantity of spare parts is closely related to the inherent failure rate, utilization rate, inventory, maintenance cycle and fleet size of the product. In this paper, under the assumption of fleet size NN50, the relationship between aircraft reliability and spare parts is obtained by using MATLAB software under the condition of maintenance cycle tr=30 day or 60 day, utilization rate 尾 0. 5 or 0. 8, effective utilization ratio A0. 8 or 0. 95. Secondly, the information entropy weight theory is used to discuss the support precision of the aviation spare parts support system, the weight of each error evaluation index is allocated, the variation coefficient of each single prediction method is calculated, and the weight of each error evaluation index is calculated. The weight of the single prediction method and the combined weight coefficient matrix are determined. Finally, the accuracy of the entropy weight prediction model is proved by an example. Finally, the economy of aviation spare parts support based on PBL is analyzed. Here, first of all, based on the obtained financial statements of aviation spare parts guarantee, the financial statements are audited by using the financial analysis software, and the structural financial statements are generated according to the audit report, the synthetic cash flow statement, This paper analyzes the sensitivity of the profit and loss factors of security costs, the sustainability of security activities based on van Horne model, the economic added value of security activities, the free cash flow, the surplus situation based on K-S model and marginal model; The Ataman model is used to evaluate the success of the guarantee activity, the Wale index is used to evaluate the credit ability of the guarantee activity, and the Labaport model is used to evaluate the guarantee value. In the aviation spare parts support strategy based on PBL, based on ARJ21, this paper puts forward the prediction model of the turnover parts, repairable parts and consumables in the initial spare parts support, and in the continuous spare parts support, according to the six failure modes, for the non-repairable parts, The calculation model of the demand is established by using the renewal process in the random process. For the case of complex fault distribution function and difficult to be solved by the conventional method, the MonteCarlo method is used to simulate the number of faults and to calculate the demand of the unrepairable parts. For repairable parts, according to the influence of different maintenance methods on the life cycle of spare parts, this study uses "maintenance degree" to quantify the maintenance degree, and applies genetic algorithm to optimize the parameter estimation value of maintenance degree. The repairable demand model is established by the generalized renewal process. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by an example.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：V267

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