本文選題：松耦合模型驅(qū)動(dòng) + 流域水資源管理�。� 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：流域水資源具有發(fā)電、供水、航運(yùn)、灌溉、養(yǎng)殖等多種適用價(jià)值和功能，如何合理開(kāi)發(fā)、利用、節(jié)約和保護(hù)水資源并防治水害是一個(gè)事關(guān)科學(xué)發(fā)展的全局性根本性問(wèn)題，同時(shí)也是一個(gè)關(guān)系國(guó)計(jì)民生的戰(zhàn)略問(wèn)題。我國(guó)水資源相當(dāng)貧乏，水問(wèn)題異常突出，且隨著人類(lèi)活動(dòng)對(duì)水資源系統(tǒng)擾動(dòng)程度的加深以及社會(huì)發(fā)展進(jìn)程的高速推進(jìn)，水資源的供需矛盾將更加嚴(yán)重，另一方面，近些年極端氣候事件頻發(fā)態(tài)勢(shì)進(jìn)一步增加了流域水資源管理的復(fù)雜性與不確定性。如何在流域范圍內(nèi)以最少的水資源、資金和人力的投入獲得最大的社會(huì)效益、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和環(huán)境效益是當(dāng)前流域水資源管理的首要目標(biāo)。流域水資源系統(tǒng)是一個(gè)受諸多方面因素影響的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，且流域水資源管理決策過(guò)程涉及社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、水文、水動(dòng)、水工和生態(tài)等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域，是一個(gè)典型半結(jié)構(gòu)化的多層次、多主體、多目標(biāo)決策問(wèn)題，以信息管理系統(tǒng)為代表的傳統(tǒng)模式已無(wú)法適應(yīng)現(xiàn)代流域水資源管理的需求�；陬A(yù)報(bào)、分析、局部搜索、多目標(biāo)多屬性決策、最優(yōu)化、模擬、評(píng)估、知識(shí)、方法、數(shù)字化技術(shù)等多學(xué)科輔助決策運(yùn)算單元（本文范疇內(nèi)統(tǒng)稱為“模型”，Model）的決策支持系統(tǒng)將輔助流域水資源管理部門(mén)更好地開(kāi)展水資源規(guī)劃管理工作，其中保證面向決策需求的動(dòng)態(tài)適應(yīng)性與異質(zhì)包容性是決定此類(lèi)決策支持系統(tǒng)性能的關(guān)鍵。本文首次提出了一種以模型為中心，以決策行為優(yōu)化環(huán)與決策技術(shù)優(yōu)化環(huán)雙層松耦合迭代優(yōu)化結(jié)構(gòu)為主要特點(diǎn)的決策支持系統(tǒng)建模與設(shè)計(jì)方法，定義它為松耦合模型驅(qū)動(dòng)決策支持系統(tǒng)（Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System，簡(jiǎn)稱LCMD-DSS），并詳細(xì)闡述了其決策機(jī)理、體系架構(gòu)以及相關(guān)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。近四年來(lái)，這一系統(tǒng)方法被成功應(yīng)用到包括國(guó)家973計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目應(yīng)用示范在內(nèi)的水資源管理實(shí)際工程應(yīng)用中，應(yīng)用效果表明LCMD-DSS具有良好的異質(zhì)包容性、動(dòng)態(tài)適應(yīng)性與普適性推廣前景。另一方面，隨著相關(guān)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)規(guī)范與模型應(yīng)用協(xié)議體系的完善，LCMD-DSS將極大地促進(jìn)科研院所先進(jìn)的流域水資源管理領(lǐng)域理論算法與實(shí)際工程實(shí)踐相結(jié)合的學(xué)-研-產(chǎn)新模式的高速發(fā)展，為科學(xué)地開(kāi)展流域水資源管理工作，實(shí)現(xiàn)“水資源可持續(xù)利用”國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略提供理論基礎(chǔ)與技術(shù)支撐。本文的主要研究成果和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)包括： （1）針對(duì)流域水資源管理決策過(guò)程多層次、多主體、多目標(biāo)且半結(jié)構(gòu)化的特點(diǎn)，設(shè)計(jì)了基于雙層迭代優(yōu)化結(jié)構(gòu)的持續(xù)集成松耦合系統(tǒng)體系，明確了系統(tǒng)框架下各相關(guān)角色的作用與分工，探討了這一系統(tǒng)方法在流域水資源管理領(lǐng)域的決策機(jī)理，提出了松耦合模型驅(qū)動(dòng)的流域水資源管理決策支持系統(tǒng)方法； （2）針對(duì)LCMD-DSS系統(tǒng)集成所面對(duì)的海量多源異構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)集成、網(wǎng)絡(luò)分布式開(kāi)放模型集成與基于GIS動(dòng)態(tài)生成交互平臺(tái)搭建等難題，綜合運(yùn)用地球科學(xué)、信息科學(xué)、計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)、空間科學(xué)、通信科學(xué)、管理科學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)人文科學(xué)等多學(xué)科理論和技術(shù)成果，結(jié)合數(shù)字工程方法克服傳統(tǒng)信息系統(tǒng)的物理邊緣、技術(shù)邊緣、功能邊緣和邏輯思維邊緣，建立了流域水資源管理統(tǒng)一數(shù)據(jù)共享平臺(tái)，研發(fā)了網(wǎng)絡(luò)分布式模型驅(qū)動(dòng)的水資源管理智能化開(kāi)放式模型庫(kù)，，設(shè)計(jì)并實(shí)現(xiàn)了基于WPF與GIS的動(dòng)態(tài)生成交互平臺(tái)，為L(zhǎng)CMD-DSS雙層迭代優(yōu)化機(jī)制提供了核心技術(shù)支撐； （3）針對(duì)流域水資源管理情景推演需求，綜合考慮不規(guī)則邊界和復(fù)雜地形的淺水流動(dòng)數(shù)值計(jì)算問(wèn)題，基于不規(guī)則三角形網(wǎng)格單元求解二維淺水方程的高精度Godunov型有限體積模型；研發(fā)了一系列用于數(shù)據(jù)分析與可視化轉(zhuǎn)換的普適性GP服務(wù)，以模型的形式集成到系統(tǒng)開(kāi)放式模型庫(kù)，實(shí)現(xiàn)了流域水資源管理情景推演的數(shù)值仿真及可視化模擬； （4）以國(guó)家治水方針、水利部可持續(xù)利用治水新思路為指導(dǎo)，以輔助水行政主管部門(mén)自上而下調(diào)度協(xié)調(diào)流域水資源為目的，以研究并實(shí)現(xiàn)具有普適性意義的流域水資源管理決策支持系統(tǒng)為切入點(diǎn)，以持續(xù)優(yōu)化LCMD方法的系統(tǒng)理論框架（決策行為優(yōu)化環(huán)）與技術(shù)儲(chǔ)備庫(kù)（決策技術(shù)優(yōu)化環(huán)）為技術(shù)路線，開(kāi)展了LCMD-DSS在流域水資源管理領(lǐng)域的示范推廣工作。
[Abstract]:Water resources in the basin have many applicable values and functions, such as power generation, water supply, shipping, irrigation, and aquaculture. How to rationally develop, utilize, save and protect water resources and prevent water damage is a global and fundamental problem related to scientific development. It is also a strategic problem for the people in relation to the people of China. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be more serious with the deepening of the disturbance degree of human activities to water resources system and the rapid advancement of social development process. On the other hand, the frequent situation of extreme weather events in recent years has further increased the complexity and uncertainty of water resource management in the basin. Small water resources, capital and manpower input are the most important social benefits. Economic and environmental benefits are the primary objectives of water resource management in the basin. The basin water resource system is a complex system affected by many factors, and the decision-making process of water resources management involves social, economic, hydrological, hydraulic, hydraulic and ecological management. It is a typical semi structured multi-layer, multi-agent and multi-objective decision-making problem. The traditional mode represented by information management system can not adapt to the needs of modern water resource management. Based on prediction, analysis, local search, multi-objective and multi attribute decision, optimization, simulation, evaluation, knowledge, method, digital technology and so on The decision support system of the multi-disciplinary aided decision making operation unit (called "model" in the category, Model) will help the water resources management department to better carry out the water resource planning and management. The key to determine the performance of this kind of decision support system is to ensure the dynamic adaptability and heterogeneity of the decision-making requirements. The modeling and design method of a decision support system based on the model as the center, the optimization ring of decision behavior and the decision technology optimization of the double layer loosely coupled iterative optimization structure is proposed for the first time. It is defined as the loosely coupled model driven decision support system (Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System, abbreviated as LCMD-DSS). The decision-making mechanism, architecture and related key technologies are described in detail. In the last four years, this system method has been successfully applied to the practical engineering application of water resources management including the national 973 Plan project application demonstration. The application results show that LCMD-DSS has good quality of heterogeneity, dynamic adaptability and popularization before popularization. On the other hand, with the improvement of the related intellectual property rights protection standards and the model application protocol system, LCMD-DSS will greatly promote the rapid development of the new model of the theoretical algorithm of water resources management and the practical engineering practice in the field of water resources management of the scientific research institute, and to carry out the management of water resources in the river basin scientifically. The main research achievements and innovations of the national strategy of "sustainable utilization of water resources" include:
(1) aiming at the multi-layer, multi-objective and semi structured characteristics of the decision process of water resource management in the basin, a continuous integrated loosely coupled system based on the double layer iterative optimization structure is designed. The role and division of the relevant roles under the system framework are clarified, and the decision-making machine of this system method in the field of water resource management in the basin is discussed. This paper proposes a loosely coupled model driven decision support system for watershed water resources management.
(2) in view of the massive heterogeneous data integration of LCMD-DSS system integration, network distributed open model integration and the construction of interactive platform based on GIS dynamic generation, the multi-disciplinary theory and technology of Geoscience, information science, computer science, space science, communication science, management science, economic and human science and so on are integrated. According to the digital engineering method, the physical edge of the traditional information system, the edge of the technology, the edge of the function and the edge of logical thinking are overcome, and a unified data sharing platform for water resource management in the basin is set up. The intelligent and open model library of water resource management driven by the network distributed model is developed, and the dynamic generation based on WPF and GIS is designed and realized. The transaction platform provides the core technical support for the LCMD-DSS bilayer iterative optimization mechanism.
(3) aiming at the requirement of watershed water resource management scenarios and considering the numerical calculation of shallow water flow in irregular boundary and complex terrain, the high precision Godunov model of two-dimensional shallow water equation is solved based on irregular triangular mesh element, and a series of universal GP suits for data analysis and visualization are developed. The model is integrated into the open model library of the system, and the numerical simulation and visual simulation of river basin water resources management scenario deduction are realized.
(4) taking the national water management policy and the new idea of water management for the Ministry of water resources for the sustainable use of water resources for the purpose of coordinating the water resources of the river basin from top to bottom by the Ministry of water administration, in order to study and realize the decision support system for water resources management of the river basin, which has the universal significance as the breakthrough point, the systematic theoretical framework of the continuous optimization of the LCMD method is made. The strategic behavior optimization ring and the technology storage base (decision making technology optimization loop) are the technical routes, and the demonstration and extension work of LCMD-DSS in the watershed water resources management field has been carried out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：N945.25

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