基于城市基礎(chǔ)部門模型的成都市規(guī)模研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-08 07:45
【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國各類大中小城市都有了快速發(fā)展,城市化進程不斷加快。城市作為各種經(jīng)濟社會要素聚集的中心,是城市經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展賴以生存的空間載體。城市社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,客觀上需要一個與之相適應(yīng)的合理的城市人口規(guī)模,這對于高速發(fā)展的現(xiàn)代化城市而言,是一個亟待解決的城市問題之一。自改革開放以來,我國的城市規(guī)模發(fā)展政策經(jīng)歷了不同的調(diào)整,在國家城市規(guī)模發(fā)展政策的宏觀調(diào)控下,各地應(yīng)因地制宜地制定適合本地城市發(fā)展的城市規(guī)模發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。城市基礎(chǔ)部門模型是城市經(jīng)濟學(xué)的重要理論模型,它不僅可以解釋城市經(jīng)濟的增長,而且可用來探討城市化的機制,顯化城市規(guī)模的發(fā)展規(guī)律,這可為各個城市因地制宜地制定符合自身的城市規(guī)模發(fā)展政策提供了理論依據(jù)和現(xiàn)實方法。本文在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)之上,從城市人口規(guī)模與城市基礎(chǔ)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)相互作用關(guān)系角度出發(fā),結(jié)合四川省成都市十年間城鎮(zhèn)人口和就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),利用基礎(chǔ)部門模型解釋了成都市基礎(chǔ)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展對城市規(guī)模發(fā)展的作用機制,并結(jié)合灰色系統(tǒng)模型對成都2020年的城市規(guī)模發(fā)展進行了預(yù)測。第一章為緒論,說明了關(guān)于城市規(guī)模研究的選題背景和研究理論及現(xiàn)實意義,并對國外內(nèi)關(guān)于城市規(guī)模與產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展關(guān)系、城市規(guī)模預(yù)測、城市基礎(chǔ)部門模型的研究成果和現(xiàn)狀進行歸納總結(jié),在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)之上提出本文的研究思路框架與研究方法,及本文的研究的創(chuàng)新點與不足。第二章為城市規(guī)模研究的概念界定及理論分析。重點闡述城市規(guī)模研究的理論依據(jù):從城市化、配第—克拉克理論,解釋城市產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展所能吸納的勞動力數(shù)量影響著未來城市規(guī)模的大小,為后文探討基礎(chǔ)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)影響城市規(guī)模打下理論基礎(chǔ);從集聚經(jīng)濟和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟理論出發(fā),解釋城市規(guī)模的擴張或縮小會帶來城市集聚效益和規(guī)模效益的變化,影響城市規(guī)模發(fā)展;從勞動地域分工理論、輸出基礎(chǔ)理論出發(fā),解釋各個城市具有比較優(yōu)勢,承擔(dān)不同的勞動地域分工,形成不同的基礎(chǔ)部門,對城市規(guī)模的大小發(fā)揮不同的作用。第三章在理論分析基礎(chǔ)之上,對成都市城市規(guī)�，F(xiàn)狀從多個角度展開研究。成都作為西部地區(qū)的特大城市,流動人口數(shù)量多,城市化水平較高,同時,成都經(jīng)濟發(fā)展近年來成績顯著,工業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、信息產(chǎn)業(yè)行業(yè)優(yōu)勢明顯。城市基礎(chǔ)部門模型表明,城市規(guī)模的發(fā)展與基礎(chǔ)部門發(fā)展關(guān)系密切相關(guān),研究發(fā)現(xiàn)成都城市基礎(chǔ)部門主要集中在第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè),成都與北京、廣州發(fā)達城市相比,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展仍相對滯后,服務(wù)業(yè)水平不高,第三產(chǎn)從業(yè)人員比重較低,在吸納勞動力就業(yè)方面仍有較大的發(fā)展空間。第四章是本文的重點章節(jié),分四大部分研究:一、重點闡述了城市基礎(chǔ)部門模型,對城市規(guī)模增長機制進行靜態(tài)和動態(tài)的推導(dǎo);二、運用區(qū)位商法區(qū)分成都城市基礎(chǔ)、非基礎(chǔ)部門;三、基于城市基礎(chǔ)部門模型推導(dǎo),測算出來基礎(chǔ)部門各系數(shù),用數(shù)據(jù)解釋基礎(chǔ)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展于城市規(guī)模的發(fā)展的作用機制,研究表明,基礎(chǔ)部門每增加一個從業(yè)人員,會帶動配套部門平均增加0.18個從業(yè)人員,公共服務(wù)部門平均增加0.37個從業(yè)人員,由于就業(yè)增加而平均增加的撫養(yǎng)人口數(shù)為1.14人;四、利用灰色系統(tǒng)模型Verhulst預(yù)測2020年成都市基礎(chǔ)部門從業(yè)人員規(guī)模將達到約400.17萬人,基于基礎(chǔ)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,配套部門從業(yè)人員將增加68.03萬人,公共服務(wù)部門從業(yè)人員增加約141.06萬人,總的就業(yè)人員將達到609.26萬人,就業(yè)人員所撫養(yǎng)的人口將達到563.28萬人,城市總?cè)丝谝?guī)模將達到1172.54萬人。第五章是成都城市規(guī)模發(fā)展趨勢分析與對策。根據(jù)第四章,預(yù)測成都2020年城市規(guī)模將會達到約1172.54萬人,與《成都市新型城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃2015—2020年》相比,成都城市基礎(chǔ)部門發(fā)展未來可吸納的城市人口規(guī)模較小,如果要達到成都城市發(fā)展規(guī)劃的目標(biāo),需要繼續(xù)支持基礎(chǔ)部門優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,促進人口聚集與產(chǎn)業(yè)聚集融合發(fā)展,增強產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)吸納能力、城市經(jīng)濟人口承載能力和城市人文魅力。第六章是結(jié)論與展望,指出本文可進一步研究探討的方向。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, all kinds of large, medium and small cities in China have developed rapidly, and the urbanization process has been accelerating. As the center of various economic and social factors, cities are the space carriers on which urban economic and social development depends. Since the reform and opening-up, China's urban scale development policy has undergone different adjustments. Under the macro-control of the national urban scale development policy, various localities should formulate the urban scale development war suitable for local urban development according to local conditions. The urban basic department model is an important theoretical model of urban economics. It can not only explain the growth of urban economy, but also explore the mechanism of urbanization and reveal the development law of urban scale. It can provide theoretical basis and practical method for each city to formulate its own urban scale development policy according to local conditions. On the basis of previous studies, this paper, from the perspective of the interaction between urban population size and urban basic sector industry, combined with the urban population and employment data of Chengdu in Sichuan Province in the past ten years, uses the basic sector model to explain the mechanism of the industrial development of basic sector in Chengdu on the development of urban scale, and combines the grey system. The system model predicts the development of urban scale in Chengdu in 2020. The first chapter is the introduction, which explains the background and theoretical and practical significance of the research on urban scale, and summarizes the research results and current situation of the relationship between urban scale and industrial development, urban scale prediction, and urban basic department model at home and abroad. The second chapter is the definition and theoretical analysis of urban scale research. The theoretical basis of urban scale research is elaborated emphatically: from the perspective of urbanization, Petty-Clark theory to explain the urban industrial development institute. The quantity of labor force that can be absorbed influences the future urban scale, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following discussion on the influence of basic sector industries on the urban scale. Based on the theory of regional division of labor and the basic theory of export, this paper explains that each city has comparative advantages, undertakes different division of labor, forms different basic departments and plays different roles in the size of the city. At the same time, the economic development of Chengdu has made remarkable achievements in recent years. The advantages of industry, construction, real estate and information industry are obvious. The basic department model of the city shows that the development of the city scale is closely related to the development of the basic department. Compared with the developed cities of Beijing and Guangzhou, the development of the tertiary industry in Chengdu is still lagging behind, the service industry level is not high, the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry is low, and there is still much room for development in absorbing labor force employment. Secondly, the location quotient method is used to distinguish the basic and non-basic sectors of Chengdu city. Thirdly, based on the derivation of the urban basic sector model, the coefficients of the basic sector are calculated, and the role of the development of basic sector industry in the development of urban scale is explained with data. Mechanisms, research shows that each additional employee in the basic sector will lead to an average increase of 0.18 employees in the supporting sector, 0.37 employees in the public service sector, and an average increase in the number of dependants due to the increase in employment of 1.14 people. Fourthly, the grey system model Verhulst is used to predict the number of employees in the basic sector of Chengdu by 2020. Based on the development of the basic sector industry, the number of employees in the supporting sector will increase by 6803,000, the number of employees in the public service sector will increase by 1406,000, the total number of employees will reach 6.0926,000, the number of people supported by the employees will reach 5.6328,000, and the total urban population will reach 1,725. The fifth chapter is the analysis and Countermeasure of the development trend of urban scale in Chengdu.According to the fourth chapter, it is predicted that the urban scale of Chengdu will reach about 11.7254 million by 2020.Compared with the new urbanization plan of Chengdu from 2015 to 2020, the urban basic departments of Chengdu will have a smaller population size to absorb in the future, if they want to reach the city of Chengdu. The goal of the development plan is to continue to support the development of superior industries in basic departments, promote the integration of population and industrial agglomeration, enhance the absorptive capacity of industrial employment, the carrying capacity of urban economic population and the city's human charm.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.27
本文編號：2229854
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, all kinds of large, medium and small cities in China have developed rapidly, and the urbanization process has been accelerating. As the center of various economic and social factors, cities are the space carriers on which urban economic and social development depends. Since the reform and opening-up, China's urban scale development policy has undergone different adjustments. Under the macro-control of the national urban scale development policy, various localities should formulate the urban scale development war suitable for local urban development according to local conditions. The urban basic department model is an important theoretical model of urban economics. It can not only explain the growth of urban economy, but also explore the mechanism of urbanization and reveal the development law of urban scale. It can provide theoretical basis and practical method for each city to formulate its own urban scale development policy according to local conditions. On the basis of previous studies, this paper, from the perspective of the interaction between urban population size and urban basic sector industry, combined with the urban population and employment data of Chengdu in Sichuan Province in the past ten years, uses the basic sector model to explain the mechanism of the industrial development of basic sector in Chengdu on the development of urban scale, and combines the grey system. The system model predicts the development of urban scale in Chengdu in 2020. The first chapter is the introduction, which explains the background and theoretical and practical significance of the research on urban scale, and summarizes the research results and current situation of the relationship between urban scale and industrial development, urban scale prediction, and urban basic department model at home and abroad. The second chapter is the definition and theoretical analysis of urban scale research. The theoretical basis of urban scale research is elaborated emphatically: from the perspective of urbanization, Petty-Clark theory to explain the urban industrial development institute. The quantity of labor force that can be absorbed influences the future urban scale, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following discussion on the influence of basic sector industries on the urban scale. Based on the theory of regional division of labor and the basic theory of export, this paper explains that each city has comparative advantages, undertakes different division of labor, forms different basic departments and plays different roles in the size of the city. At the same time, the economic development of Chengdu has made remarkable achievements in recent years. The advantages of industry, construction, real estate and information industry are obvious. The basic department model of the city shows that the development of the city scale is closely related to the development of the basic department. Compared with the developed cities of Beijing and Guangzhou, the development of the tertiary industry in Chengdu is still lagging behind, the service industry level is not high, the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry is low, and there is still much room for development in absorbing labor force employment. Secondly, the location quotient method is used to distinguish the basic and non-basic sectors of Chengdu city. Thirdly, based on the derivation of the urban basic sector model, the coefficients of the basic sector are calculated, and the role of the development of basic sector industry in the development of urban scale is explained with data. Mechanisms, research shows that each additional employee in the basic sector will lead to an average increase of 0.18 employees in the supporting sector, 0.37 employees in the public service sector, and an average increase in the number of dependants due to the increase in employment of 1.14 people. Fourthly, the grey system model Verhulst is used to predict the number of employees in the basic sector of Chengdu by 2020. Based on the development of the basic sector industry, the number of employees in the supporting sector will increase by 6803,000, the number of employees in the public service sector will increase by 1406,000, the total number of employees will reach 6.0926,000, the number of people supported by the employees will reach 5.6328,000, and the total urban population will reach 1,725. The fifth chapter is the analysis and Countermeasure of the development trend of urban scale in Chengdu.According to the fourth chapter, it is predicted that the urban scale of Chengdu will reach about 11.7254 million by 2020.Compared with the new urbanization plan of Chengdu from 2015 to 2020, the urban basic departments of Chengdu will have a smaller population size to absorb in the future, if they want to reach the city of Chengdu. The goal of the development plan is to continue to support the development of superior industries in basic departments, promote the integration of population and industrial agglomeration, enhance the absorptive capacity of industrial employment, the carrying capacity of urban economic population and the city's human charm.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.27
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 段寶玲;馮強;劉德軍;卜玉山;;基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的城市人口規(guī)模預(yù)測——以大同市為例[J];山西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2016年01期
2 何建武;;城市規(guī)模與城市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系研究[J];經(jīng)濟與管理研究;2015年08期
3 孫祥棟;鄭艷婷;張亮亮;;基于集聚經(jīng)濟規(guī)律的城市規(guī)模問題研究[J];中國人口·資源與環(huán)境;2015年03期
4 柯善咨;趙曜;;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城市規(guī)模與中國城市生產(chǎn)率[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2014年04期
5 李嘉靖;劉玉亭;;基于城市吸引力的市域總?cè)丝陬A(yù)測方法的完善[J];現(xiàn)代城市研究;2013年05期
6 鐘無涯;顏瑋;;基于勞動生產(chǎn)率的深圳就業(yè)人口預(yù)測[J];哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2013年03期
7 朱江麗;;開放經(jīng)濟視角下產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚與城市規(guī)模增長——基于長三角城市的實證分析[J];南大商學(xué)評論;2013年01期
8 張曉放;黃亮;呂芳;;東北三省城市職能演變分析[J];經(jīng)濟研究導(dǎo)刊;2013年02期
9 王鵬;陸浩然;;珠三角地區(qū)城市職能分類與轉(zhuǎn)變研究[J];市場經(jīng)濟與價格;2012年06期
10 柳德江;殷鳳玲;唐紅燕;;玉溪市未來人口預(yù)測三種模型的分析[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2011年S1期
相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 王雅莉;城市化經(jīng)濟運行分析[D];東北財經(jīng)大學(xué);2003年
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條
1 杜悅凡;小城鎮(zhèn)總體規(guī)劃中人口預(yù)測方法研究[D];合肥工業(yè)大學(xué);2014年
2 王楠;區(qū)域視角下城市人口規(guī)模預(yù)測方法研究[D];西安建筑科技大學(xué);2011年
，本文編號：2229854
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/falvlunwen/sflw/2229854.html
