發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-03 19:18

【摘要】： 近年來(lái),珠三角地區(qū)的制造業(yè)經(jīng)歷了高速發(fā)展之后,隨著能源日益匱乏、新勞動(dòng)法的實(shí)施等一系列宏觀環(huán)境的改變,其比較優(yōu)勢(shì)正日趨消失。尤其是在人民幣升值和金融危機(jī)來(lái)襲之后,外源經(jīng)濟(jì)特征顯著的珠三角制造業(yè)面臨前所未有的危機(jī)與挑戰(zhàn)。在這樣的背景之下,對(duì)珠三角制造業(yè)進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警的相關(guān)研究既具理論意義又符合現(xiàn)實(shí)需要。 本論文以2005年至2007年之間珠三角地區(qū)被特別處理的15家制造業(yè)ST公司并配以15家相同細(xì)分行業(yè)的健康公司作為研究樣本。從樣本數(shù)據(jù)的信息顯著性和重復(fù)性兩個(gè)角度出發(fā),對(duì)基礎(chǔ)預(yù)警指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)處理,最終確定了9個(gè)指標(biāo)作為模型的自變量序列。以Logistic回歸模型作為建模方法,依次迭加引入傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)、現(xiàn)金流量類指標(biāo)和非財(cái)務(wù)類指標(biāo)作為預(yù)警變量,在t-1、t-2、t-3年樣本數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了共計(jì)九個(gè)預(yù)警模型。比較分析研究結(jié)果后發(fā)現(xiàn):總體上,預(yù)警模型的預(yù)警精度與預(yù)警期間呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,而與模型中所包含的自變量類別的數(shù)目呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, after the rapid development of manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta region, with the increasing shortage of energy, the implementation of new labor law and a series of macro environment changes, its comparative advantage is disappearing day by day. Especially after the RMB appreciation and the financial crisis, the Pearl River Delta manufacturing industry with remarkable economic characteristics is facing unprecedented crisis and challenge. Against this background, the research on the financial crisis early warning of the Pearl River Delta manufacturing industry is of theoretical significance and meets the practical needs. In this paper, 15 manufacturing ST companies in the Pearl River Delta region and 15 health companies in the same subsector were selected as the research samples from 2005 to 2007. Based on the information significance and repeatability of the sample data, the preprocessing of the basic early warning index is carried out, and nine indexes are determined as the independent variable sequence of the model. With Logistic regression model as modeling method, traditional financial indexes, cash flow indicators and non-financial indicators are introduced as early warning variables, and based on t-1 / t ~ (-2) / t ~ (3) year sample data. A total of nine early warning models were constructed. It is found that the early warning accuracy of the early warning model is negatively correlated with the early warning period and is positively correlated with the number of independent variable categories contained in the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號(hào)】：F275

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 林松利;基于現(xiàn)金流量的廣東制造業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究[D];廣東工業(yè)大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號(hào)：2308734