【摘要】：與西方整體研究態(tài)勢相比,"司法證明概率論"這一研究主題在中國很少受到重視。這值得深刻反思。司法證明所具有的蓋然性為概率論在其中的運用創(chuàng)造了話語空間與理論基礎。作為一種處理不確定問題的有效工具,概率論顯然能夠輔助司法證明活動�？傮w而言,概率論在司法證明中的運用可以說是困境與前景并存:一方面,"司法證明概率論"面臨著諸多應用局限;另一方面,隨著相關知識的發(fā)展,概率論在司法證明中的運用將呈現(xiàn)出廣闊前景。時值中國司法改革,司法證明概率論不僅有助于打破傳統(tǒng)司法理論中的一些誤區(qū),重塑科學的司法理念,而且對于建構新司法制度與規(guī)則具有重要啟發(fā)意義。有鑒于此,中國證據(jù)法學研究不應當忽視這一研究主題。
[Abstract]:Compared with the overall research situation in the West, the subject of "probability of Judicial proof" is seldom paid attention to in China. This deserves deep reflection. The inevitability of judicial proof creates the discourse space and theoretical basis for the application of probability theory. As an effective tool to deal with uncertain problems, probability theory can obviously assist judicial proof. In general, the application of probability theory in judicial proof can be described as the coexistence of difficulties and prospects: on the one hand, "probability theory of judicial proof" is faced with many application limitations; on the other hand, with the development of relevant knowledge, The application of probability theory in judicial proof will present a broad prospect. At the time of China's judicial reform, the probability theory of judicial proof is not only helpful to break some misunderstandings in the traditional judicial theory and reshape the scientific judicial idea, but also has important enlightening significance for the construction of new judicial system and rules. In view of this, the research of evidence law in China should not ignore this subject.
【作者單位】： 中國政法大學證據(jù)科學研究院;
【基金】：國家“2011計劃”司法文明協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心資助
【分類號】：D926

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