發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-28 01:30

  本文選題：法律決策 + 后見(jiàn)偏差　； 參考：《湖南師范大學(xué)》2010年博士論文

【摘要】：后見(jiàn)偏差這一術(shù)語(yǔ)描述了一種被普遍觀察到的社會(huì)認(rèn)知現(xiàn)象,就是人們常常只有在事件過(guò)后才是明智的。當(dāng)人們了解事件的結(jié)果后,對(duì)于結(jié)果出現(xiàn)之前的可預(yù)見(jiàn)性做出判斷時(shí),往往會(huì)成為后見(jiàn)偏差的犧牲品。相對(duì)于結(jié)果發(fā)生之前做出的可預(yù)見(jiàn)性,他們存在夸大已知結(jié)果的趨向。擁有已知結(jié)果的優(yōu)勢(shì),人們不僅認(rèn)為特定的結(jié)果是更加可預(yù)知的,而且更有可能回憶起與所知結(jié)果相一致的事件信息,并認(rèn)定這些信息對(duì)于事件結(jié)果的發(fā)生是更有影響力的。同時(shí),人們會(huì)簡(jiǎn)化,不考慮,或者甚至?xí)z忘與所知結(jié)果不一致的事件信息。 法律決策是在法律案件的審判過(guò)程中,與案件有關(guān)的當(dāng)事人(證人或?qū)＜?,以及案件的審判人員(法官、陪審員)依據(jù)事實(shí)、證據(jù)和法律規(guī)定,對(duì)案件當(dāng)事人的行為做出自我判定,從而形成具有法律效力的決策結(jié)果。由于當(dāng)前法律審判的實(shí)質(zhì)是,在一個(gè)事件結(jié)果已經(jīng)發(fā)生后去評(píng)判罪行或者責(zé)任,所以后見(jiàn)效應(yīng)能夠從許多途徑對(duì)法律決策者們施加其影響。在法庭審判中的法官和陪審員,往往面臨著一個(gè)艱難的挑戰(zhàn),他們必須忽略結(jié)果對(duì)他們所產(chǎn)生的后見(jiàn)效應(yīng)的影響,以一種公平的方式來(lái)判決被告在結(jié)果出現(xiàn)之前的行為是否有過(guò)錯(cuò)。他們能否做到不考慮結(jié)果的信息?或者對(duì)于結(jié)果的了解是否會(huì)使他們的決策產(chǎn)生偏見(jiàn)?這些是進(jìn)行本研究的初衷所在。 基于當(dāng)前對(duì)于后見(jiàn)偏差影響因素的實(shí)驗(yàn)研究結(jié)果,并結(jié)合法律決策的特殊性,本實(shí)驗(yàn)研究采用假定型設(shè)計(jì),通過(guò)三個(gè)3×3和一個(gè)2×3的兩因素被試間實(shí)驗(yàn),分別選擇了不同事件結(jié)果、消極結(jié)果嚴(yán)重程度、間接自我相關(guān)、心理控制源,這四個(gè)客觀以及主觀方面的因素作為對(duì)于模擬法律決策中后見(jiàn)偏差影響因素的考察對(duì)象。同時(shí),通過(guò)策略的運(yùn)用,進(jìn)一步探究所選取的消除后見(jiàn)效應(yīng)的兩個(gè)策略在不同案件以及不同因素影響下的有效性。 研究結(jié)果表明： 1、后見(jiàn)偏差不僅存在于作者之前實(shí)驗(yàn)研究所證實(shí)的中國(guó)被試購(gòu)買(mǎi)行為的決策判斷中,也存在于具體情境的模擬法律決策中,而且具有一定的穩(wěn)固性。 2、中立、積極與消極的不同事件結(jié)果會(huì)使模擬法律決策中的后見(jiàn)效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生差異。模擬法官在事件消極結(jié)果情境下對(duì)案件做出的決策比在中立結(jié)果情境下所做的案件決策產(chǎn)生出了更大的后見(jiàn)偏差,而在事件積極結(jié)果情境下所做出的決策結(jié)果則出現(xiàn)了更少的后見(jiàn)偏差。 3、消極結(jié)果的嚴(yán)重程度對(duì)后見(jiàn)偏差的大小有著深刻的影響力,更嚴(yán)重的消極結(jié)果會(huì)產(chǎn)生出更大程度的偏見(jiàn)。后見(jiàn)偏差的強(qiáng)度隨著事件消極結(jié)果嚴(yán)重程度的增加而顯著增強(qiáng),在消極結(jié)果的嚴(yán)重?fù)p害程度下,產(chǎn)生出最大的后見(jiàn)偏差。 4、在模擬法律決策中,案件的間接自我相關(guān)性也會(huì)使后見(jiàn)效應(yīng)對(duì)于被告過(guò)錯(cuò)的認(rèn)定產(chǎn)生不同的影響。與積極相關(guān)和無(wú)相關(guān)的決策結(jié)果相比,在消極相關(guān)情境下更多的模擬法官認(rèn)為法律案件中被告的行為存在過(guò)錯(cuò),且所評(píng)定的過(guò)錯(cuò)嚴(yán)重程度更高。 5、不同心理控制源也是導(dǎo)致模擬法律決策中的后見(jiàn)偏差存在差異的影響因素。相對(duì)于外控型心理控制源個(gè)體,內(nèi)控型心理控制源個(gè)體更加認(rèn)定被告的行為存在過(guò)錯(cuò),由此產(chǎn)生出相對(duì)更大的后見(jiàn)偏差。 6、在不同法律案件,以及不同因素影響下,提醒決策者后見(jiàn)效應(yīng)的指導(dǎo)策略,以及迫使決策者考慮其他可能性結(jié)果消極影響的分散注意策略,在減少模擬法律決策中后見(jiàn)偏差的有效性上都是非常顯著的。但這兩種消除后見(jiàn)效應(yīng)的策略之間均無(wú)顯著性差異。
[Abstract]:The term bias describes a universally observed social cognitive phenomenon that people are often wise only after an event. When people understand the results of the event, they tend to be the victims of the backward view when judging the predictability before the results appear. Predictability, they have a tendency to exaggerate known results. With the advantage of known results, people not only think that a particular result is more predictable, but also more likely to recall event information that is consistent with the known results, and that the information is more influential to the occurrence of the event. Consider, or even forget, event information that is inconsistent with the known result.
In the course of the trial of a legal case, a legal decision is a case related to the parties (witnesses or experts), as well as the judges (judges, jurors) of the case, according to the facts, evidence and legal provisions, to make a self determination of the actions of the parties in the case, thus forming the result of the decision with legal effect. It is, when the result of an event has occurred, to judge a crime or responsibility, so the effect can be applied to the legal decision-makers in many ways. The judges and jurors in the court trial often face a difficult challenge, and they have to ignore the effects of the results on their post effect. The purpose of this study is to decide whether the defendant's behavior is at fault before the result appears in a fair way. Can they do not consider the results or whether the understanding of the results will make their decisions biased.
Based on the results of the experimental research on the influencing factors of the rear view deviation and the particularity of the legal decision, the experimental study adopts the false stereotype design. Through the experiments of three 3 x 3 and a 2 x 3 factor, the results of different events, the negative result seriousness, the indirect self correlation, the psychological control source, and the four guests are selected. View and subjective factors as an object of investigation for the influence factors of the rear view deviation in the simulation of legal decision-making. At the same time, through the use of strategy, we further explore the effectiveness of the two strategies that have been selected to eliminate the post effect effect under the influence of different cases and different factors.
The results of the study show that:
1, the rear view deviation not only exists in the decision judgment of the Chinese trial purchase behavior confirmed by the author's previous experimental research, but also exists in the simulation legal decision of the specific situation, and has certain stability.
2, neutral, positive and negative results will make the difference in the post effect in the simulated legal decision. The decision making in the case of the case in the negative result situation of the event is greater than that in the case decision made in the neutral result situation, and the decision made in the positive result situation of the event is made. The result showed less deviation.
3, the severity of the negative results has a profound influence on the size of the rear view deviation, and the more serious negative results will produce a greater degree of prejudice. The intensity of the rear view deviation increases significantly with the increase of the severity of the event negative results, and the maximum apparent deviation is produced under the severe damage of the negative results.
4, in the simulation of legal decision-making, the indirect self relevance of the case will also make a different effect on the identification of the defendant's fault. Compared with the positive and unrelated decision results, more simulated judges think the defendant's behavior in the legal case is fault and the fault is seriously assessed in the negative related situation. The degree is higher.
5, different psychological control sources are also the influence factors that lead to the difference in the apparent deviation in the simulated legal decision-making. Compared with the external controlled psychological control source individual, the internal controlled psychological control source individual is more cognizant of the defendant's behavior fault, resulting in a relatively larger deviation.
6, under the influence of different legal cases and different factors, the guiding strategy of reminding the decision-makers to see the effect and the decentralized attention strategy that compel the decision-makers to consider the negative effects of other possibilities are unusual in the effectiveness of reducing the bias in the simulated legal decision. But the two strategies to eliminate the post effect effect There was no significant difference between the two groups.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D90-054

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 彭慰慰;;法律決策中的后見(jiàn)偏差[J];長(zhǎng)沙大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2010年01期

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本文編號(hào)：2076112