【摘要】：目的了解江蘇省昆山市2007-2014年2型糖尿病發(fā)病率年代變化趨勢(shì)。方法 2型糖尿病發(fā)病病例來源于針對(duì)全市戶籍人口的慢性病監(jiān)測(cè)工作,計(jì)算粗發(fā)病率和年齡標(biāo)化率。采用年份變化百分比(Annual Percentage Change,APC)來評(píng)價(jià)糖尿病發(fā)病率時(shí)間趨勢(shì);使用灰色模型預(yù)測(cè)2型糖尿病未來的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。結(jié)果中標(biāo)率在總?cè)巳?APC=10.73%,95%CI:7.3%~14.16%,P=0.0011)、男性(APC=11.31%,95%CI:7.47%~15.15%,P=0.0016)及女性(APC=10.11%,95%CI:6.98%~13.24%,P=0.0009)中明顯上升。根據(jù)灰色模型GM(1,1),預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示2015-2018年2型糖尿病的發(fā)病率將繼續(xù)升高。結(jié)論昆山市2007-2014年2型糖尿病發(fā)病率呈上升趨勢(shì)。一方面要改變生活方式減少糖尿病發(fā)生,另一方面要加強(qiáng)糖尿病社區(qū)綜合防治,減少糖尿病疾病負(fù)擔(dān)。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the chronological trend of the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2014. Methods the incidence of type 2 diabetes came from the chronic disease surveillance of the registered population in the whole city, and the crude incidence and age-standardized rate were calculated. The temporal trend of diabetes incidence was evaluated by the percentage of year variation (Annual Percentage Change,APC), and the future development trend of type 2 diabetes was predicted by grey model. Results the standardized rate was in the total population (APC=10.73%,95%CI:7.3%~14.16%,P=0.0011), male (APC=11.31%,95%CI:7.47%~15.15%,P=0.0016) and female (APC=10.11%,). 95% CI / CI 6.98% / 13.24%, P / 0.0009 (P = 0.0009). According to grey model GM (1,1), the predicted incidence of type 2 diabetes will continue to increase between 2015 and 2018. Conclusion the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Kunshan City increased from 2007 to 2014. On the one hand, we should change the way of life to reduce the occurrence of diabetes, on the other hand, we should strengthen the comprehensive prevention and cure of diabetes and reduce the burden of
【作者單位】： 蘇州大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院;昆山市疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【分類號(hào)】：R587.1
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本文編號(hào)：2471388